Can Jets make the playoffs after 2-6 start? Breaking down New York's chances after devastating loss to Patriots
The Jets entered into their Week 8 matchup against the Patriots with the hope of breaking their skid and getting back to winning ways. They were 2-5 and had lost their last four games. They were facing a team that had not won since the opening week of the 2024 NFL season. New York had overcome New England in the divisional matchup earlier this year already.
Despite being the favorites for the game, neither Aaron Rodgers nor anyone else could get the win. This meant that the Patriots were the ones who stopped their losing streak at six and extended the Jets' current slump to five losses. That means New York is now bottom of the AFC East behind New England.
This is not how the season was supposed to go. They had a strong defense that was considered Super Bowl-winning caliber. Aaron Rodgers was returning to the league after an Achilles injury last year. Yet, despite firing Robert Saleh, adding Davante Adams, and ending Haason Reddick's holdout, the Jets are in real danger of missing the playoffs altogether.
Jets playoff chances after starting 2-6
To put it mildly, the chances of the Jets making the playoffs are minuscule. When one is 2-6 and is losing to teams like the Patriots, who themselves are not expected to make the postseason, one cannot be too upbeat. That reality shone through on Sportskeeda's Playoff Predictor tool too. We ran multiple simulations and the below is the closest New York came to making it beyond the regular season.
In the AFC picture, the seventh seed in the above simulation is expected to be the Bengals. Cincinnati, who were demolished by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 8, sneaked through in this instance with a 9-8 record. The Jets, meanwhile, finish with a 7-10 record, which is still two games further back than the last Wild Card seed in this best-case scenario that got thrown up to us after multiple simulations.
How the Jets can make the 2024 NFL playoffs after a 2-6 start
That does not mean that the Jets cannot make the playoffs. For example, if they win every single game going forward, they will finish with an 11-6 record that should be good enough for the postseason.
However, that seems unrealistic given how New York is playing right now. Let us assume they actually finish with a 7-10 record as given in the simulation given above. There is still a chance that they might make it past the regular season with such a record.
The teams above the Jets in the simulation but equal or below the Bengals are the Dolphins (8-9) and the Chargers (9-8). New York will play the Dolphins twice this season and our tool says they split the results. If Aaron Rodgers and company win both the matchups, then they finish 8-9 and above Miami.
In Week 13, the Chargers are expected to beat the Falcons. If we flip that result, which is conceivable, then Los Angeles comes down to an 8-9 record and Atlanta's win does not affect the AFC. The week before that, the simulation shows them winning the battle of the Harbaughs but if the Ravens clinch that, then the Chargers are down to a 7-10 record and Baltimore is not affected since they are already through based on the results above.
The Bengals are also expected to win against the Cowboys in Week 14. That can go the other way and Dallas' win does not affect the AFC but puts the Bengals down to a 8-9 record in the above simulation. Week 15 also sees them win against the Titans, but if Tennessee can cause an upset against a leaky Cincinnati defense, Joe Burrow and company could fall to a 7-10 record. All of these are plausible and could see the Jets going through.