Can Jets make the playoffs after 3-7 start? New York's chances and scenarios explored after devastating loss to Cardinals
The New York Jets are one of the greatest disappointments of the 2024 season. After finally getting Aaron Rodgers back, and with many important additions to the roster, many analysts had the Jets as one of the best teams in the AFC. The reality, however, has New York once again staring at a meaningless January.
On Sunday, they had another big loss. Jeff Ulbrich's team was no match for the Arizona Cardinals, who beat them soundly 31-6. Despite the Jets being considered favorites for the game by betting markets, the Cardinals built a 24-6 lead at halftime and just controlled the game in the second half.
This was a season of strong vibes, with fans hopeful of finally ending their playoff drought and making the postseason for the first time since 2010. However, after seven losses in the first 10 games, the likelihood of playing in January is truly small.
Jets playoff chances after starting 3-7
With seven weeks to go, New York would've had to win four straight games just to get back to the .500 level. That alone shows how far they've fallen in 2024, and how big is the mountain they have to climb if they still aim for a playoff spot this year.
All the simulations ran on Sportskeeda's Playoff Predictor had the Jets out of the playoff picture after Week 18. A 6-11 record was the closest they got to playing in January, with diminished hopes of making a furious push late in the season.
The final playoff team in the aforementioned simulation is the Denver Broncos, who would qualify with a 9-8 record as a Wild Card. The Jets ended up better than the New England Patriots, but that was far from enough to make it to January.
Jets playoff scenarios after a 3-7 start
The team is currently sitting in second place inside the AFC East, but they're tied with the New England Patriots and just ahead of the Miami Dolphins. The path to a division title is extremely unlikely, with the Buffalo Bills holding an 8-2 record, the tiebreaker advantage, and just seven weeks to go.
It's also important to notice that the Bills have won five straight games and are considered a top-3 team inside the conference. For these reasons, in this exercise, we'll just discard the AFC East title as a possibility for New York, although it's still mathematically possible.
ESPN's FPI predictor gives the Bills a 99% chance of winning the AFC East before Week 10, and this will grow a bit more following Week 10's results.
The only realistic, albeit small, chance for Aaron Rodgers' team to make the playoffs is if they qualify as a Wild Card. If the quarterback pulls a 'run the table' feature as he did with the Green Bay Packers in 2016 when they went into a huge win sequence to make the playoffs, the possibility would become bigger: the New York Jets would finish with a 10-7 record.
The reality, however, it's harsh for the fans.
Winning seven straight games is always hard, and for a team with a 3-7 record, the chances are slim. They'll play strong opponents such as the Buffalo Bills, the Los Angeles Rams, and the Miami Dolphins twice. Winning all these games does not feel like a real possibility.
Losses against the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots have made their mission almost impossible. Only a true miracle would see them breaking the playoff drought.