Fantasy football 2023 breakout candidates for Week 1: Don't sleep on David Montgomery
The start of another NFL season is just days away. This makes it a great time to consider which players drafted in the middle or late rounds will have managers patting themselves on the back following a surprisingly good or dominant Week 1 performance.
The four players below - one from each of the primary fantasy positions - have a current ADP outside the top 60 (FantasyPros consensus rankings), which should account for the vast majority of players selected in the first five rounds of 12-team leagues.
Round 6 is usually about the time that fantasy drafts start to transition from surefire fantasy starters to players with significant questions who are best considered matchup-based options.
Fantasy football 2023: Ranking the top breakout candidates for Week 1
1] QB Geno Smith, Seahawks (vs. LA Rams)
FantasyPros ADP: 99
Sometimes fantasy managers outthink themselves when it comes to a player, and such seems to be the case with Smith in 2023. While it is true that Smith spent most of his NFL career as a backup after flaming out with the Jets, most quarterbacks don't complete a league-high 69.8 percent of their passes in any season - much less their first extended crack at being a regular starter in nearly 10 years - if they are a one-hit wonder.
With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still going strong (and the immensely talented Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the way once he fully recovers from his preseason wrist injury), Smith should prove his magical 2022 season was not a fluke right away against a Rams' defense that has Aaron Donald but little else of note.
Smith should be poised to have a big day against a secondary full of young players who either are journeymen or were Day 3 draft picks in 2022.
2] RB David Montgomery, Lions (at Kansas City)
FantasyPros ADP: 62
While there is almost no chance Montgomery will repeat Jamaal Williams' touchdown luck (scoring 10 of his 17 touchdowns from the 1-yard line and 14 inside the 5), he is expected to handle the same role. Furthermore, Detroit had the opportunity to choose between the two backs and went with the former Bear in large part because he is a more complete back.
For those concerned about Jahmyr Gibbs, there is no question he will be highly involved in the offense this season. With that said, it is highly unlikely that the hyped rookie - who checks in under 200 pounds - will be given 250 touches when he never handled more than 195 touches in three college seasons.
Why is that a big deal? Detroit running backs accumulated 509 touches in 2022, leaving Montgomery with more than enough work to be productive.
Montgomery, who will run behind what is easily the best offensive line he has had in his pro career, will begin his Detroit career against a Kansas City defense that will not have its best defensive player in holdout defensive tackle Chris Jones.
In a game that could see each team score 30-plus points, Montgomery is one of the best bets to score multiple touchdowns in Week 1.
3] WR Elijah Moore, Browns (vs. Cincinnati)
FantasyPros ADP: 100
Preseason usage and camp reports alone are not enough of a reason to vault a player into the top five rounds of a draft, but Cleveland is clearly infatuated with Moore. The ex-Jet may have worn out his welcome in New York after two years, but head coach Kevin Stefanski loves the all-purpose skill set he brings to the table - even recently comparing him to another Swiss Army knife player he used to coach in Percy Harvin.
Stefanski has stated on multiple occasions that he wants to build his offense around Deshaun Watson, which should mean many more three-wide sets (and pass attempts) than the Browns have typically featured in recent years.
A Week 1 matchup against the Bengals should serve as a great litmus test for Stefanski's willingness to open up his offense, and a wide-open affair is exactly the kind of game that should allow Moore to shine as a runner and receiver.
Also read - Amari Cooper's fantasy outlook for 2023 fantasy football season
4] TE Juwan Johnson, Saints (vs. Tennessee)
FantasyPros ADP: 150
The tight end position is notoriously difficult to project for a multitude of reasons, but some players are better bets to break through than others. Such is the case with Johnson, who was the overall fantasy TE7 from Week 7 on last season.
Despite his red zone dominance over that stretch, the former wide receiver has been available deep into the double-digit rounds all spring and summer.
Not only is new quarterback Derek Carr at least a small upgrade over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, but he also has a penchant for targeting his tight ends. Beginning with Carr's rookie year (2014), there have been six instances in which one of his tight ends attracted at least 86 targets - including four times of 99 or more.
While defenses change enough from year to year to make metrics such as points against a certain position hard to trust, the Titans were the third-most forgiving defense versus tight ends in 2022.
With everything else Tennessee will have to worry about in Week 1 (Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed), there should be opportunities for Johnson to start fast and do what he did best last season - find the end zone.
Also read: 2023 Fantasy Football predictions: Buy Justin Herbert stock; Cooper Kupp trending downwards