Fantasy Football Week 14 Start 'Em Sit 'Em Flex picks feat. Sam Darnold, Isaac Guerendo, Adam Thielen and more
Week 14 is upon us and that means it’s the final week of the fantasy regular season. We’re out here hunting for playoff spots and trying to secure bye weeks. There’s a problem, though. The NFL scheduled six bye weeks for Sunday. So, while we are fighting for our fantasy lives, we have to do it with some ammo from our bench or the waiver wire.
This article looks at data and matchups to give you the best choices for your starting lineups. I’ll use Fantasy Points Data to find the edges you need to make the right start/sit choice. These could be guys on your bench or maybe even on your waiver wire. Bottom line, get’m in or out of your lineups.
I’ll do something a little different this week. I’ll go position by position with starts and fades because there are so many bye-week decisions.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Picks
Quarterbacks
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Sam Darnold (MIN) - A plus matchup against Atlanta. The Falcons defense allows the 8th most points to the QB position. Darnold has thrown two touchdowns in three consecutive weeks. Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the league. Darnold will pick this unit apart all day.
Aiden O’Connell (LV) - The guy might look like Farva from “Super Troopers,” but he’s slingin’ the rock like a legit NFL quarterback. Sunday’s opponent, Tampa Bay, gets torched by opposing QBs. A week ago, they let Bryce Young and the Panthers' no-name receivers go for 298 yards. Four different QBs have thrown at least three touchdowns against them. The Bucs are also paper thin at safety, thanks to a string of injuries. I like O’Connell to throw for 275 and two scores.
Cooper Rush (DAL) - Yes, I’m advocating starting Cooper Rush, and no, I haven’t been drinking. This is all about a fantastic matchup against a Bengals defense that is less impressive than Charlie Brown’s Christmas Tree. The last three QBs to faceoff against Cincy have thrown for 414, 297, and 290 yards. If you don’t, Rush can get there; just look at his passing attempts over that same three-game spam (36, 32, and 55). He’s putting the ball in the air, and your fantasy roster needs to catch the points Rush is about to drop in Big D on Monday Night.
Running Backs
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Issac Guerendo (SF) - You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that the starting running back for the 49ers is a must-play option. The rookie from Louisville was selected in the fourth round of April’s draft, and now, in December, he has a chance to put the Niners on his back. He has the burst and agility to excel in this Kyle Shanahan system, which has made lesser talents into fantasy superstars. I don’t mind the matchup with Chicago at all. The Bears' run defense is hanging on by a thread. Opposing backs have run for at least 75 yards on Chicago in five straight weeks. Gurenendo is a locked and loaded top-12 option for Week 14.
Travis Etienne (JAX) - It’s been a horrible year for Etienne. This guy was a top 3 back in fantasy scoring season. Fast forward to 2024, and he hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 5. I’m buying Etienne has a flex play for this week because Trevor Lawrence is on injured reserve, and the Jags will lean on their run game to hide Mac Jones. With 15 or more touches in two straight games, the opportunity is there for the Clemson product. I’m betting on Etienne to run for 70 yards and catch three balls for 25, which is a 12.5-point day.
FADE:
Sincere McCormick (LV) - Oh boy, another Raider. While Vegas hasn’t been able to run the ball all season, it was McCormick who shined bright on Black Friday with 64 yards on 12 carries against the Chiefs. It’s an extremely small sample size, but McCormick, per Fantasy Points Data, leads all Raiders back in missed tackles forced, yards after contact per attempt, and explosive runs. I could list more stats, but you get the point. This kid has juice. His Week 14 opponent is Tampa Bay, which has locked down its last three opponents: Carolina, the NY Giants, and San Francisco. While I’m a fan of this kid, I think we’re going to see the Raiders move the ball through the air. Backs are crushing Tampa with receptions, but it doesn’t seem to be McCormick’s game. Also, Alexander Mattison could return to action this week. McCormick needs a little more seasoning before I can trust him as a three-down back.
Wide Receivers
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Parker Washington (JAX) - Last week saw Washington burst onto the scene with Mac Jones under center. His 12 targets and six receptions were all-season highs. While I don’t think he goes for 100 yards again, I do like his chances of scoring. The Titans, who he’ll face Sunday, have given up touchdowns to receivers in all but one game since Week Six. It’s a good matchup in a potential shootout between two bad teams. At least we know Washington has Jones’ trust. Last week's 28.6% target share led the Jags.
FADE:
Adam Thielen (CAR) - Welcome back, Mr. Thielen. 99 yards and a touchdown in his first significant time in weeks. Thielen saw a 21% target share, and 25% of his targets came as he was the first read. That’s all well and good, but this week, he’ll face an Eagles defense that has pass games on lockdown. Only three teams in the NFL have given up fewer fantasy points to receivers than Philly. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are erasing potential threats at a breakneck pace. Since Week 6, Philly leads the league in sacks, the fewest yards per attempt allowed, and yards per game. I’m not saying the Panthers won’t be in comeback mode for most of this one, but I’m not betting on an old, slow receiver to win vs the best young secondary duo in the league.
Tight Ends
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Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) - Simple game. Cincinnati gives up the second-most points to tight ends, and the Cowboys are throwing the ball 34 times a game in Cooper Rush starts. The last three tight ends to play Cincy all scored. Let’s not make this harder than it has to be. Mix a potential shootout with a team desperate for pass catchers and sprinkle in a team who can’t cover the position, and you have a recipe for fantasy success.
FADE:
Juwan Johnson (NO) - While I do love the fact that Johnson is taking over for Taysom Hill (IR), the matchup is brutal. The Giants allow the second-fewest points to tight ends on the year. With your season on the line, you can’t trust a low-volume player like Johnson in a tough matchup. He’s topped three receptions just three times this year. His touchdown in Week 11 was his first since Week 1. I get that the Saints have very few options, but I'd look elsewhere on the road in a tough schematic matchup.