Is Mac Jones the best rookie QB the NFL has ever seen?
Mac Jones is far and away the best rookie quarterback in the NFL this season. The No. 15 overall pick has outplayed his counterparts, and is the only one from his class winning on a major level this season. In fact, he is the only one do any winning at all.
The New England Patriots have Sunday off after a dominant 25-0 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday. That improved them to 7-4, and after a Buffalo Bills loss Sunday, the Patriots are in first place in the AFC East.
The Patriots are looking for the second coming of Tom Brady. In all honesty, that may be an impossible proposition. But they can still find a long-term replacement, and Jones has all the makings of being that through 11 games.
Eleven games is not enough time to anoint Jones as the long-term answer. But he is nearing the end of the regular season, and that means it is time to wonder how he ranks among other rookies on an all-time scale.
Most games with 100+ Passer Rating, among first-round QBs from 2021 Draft:
Mac Jones 5
Trevor Lawrence 0
Zach Wilson 0
Trey Lance 0
Justin Fields 0
*min. 20 pass attempts https://t.co/ByAegP4vW5
Let's ask the bold question: Is Jones the best rookie the NFL has ever seen?
A lot of history for Mac Jones to live up to
It is entirely possible that Jones gets the Patriots into the playoffs, makes a run, and becomes the first rookie starting quarterback to win a Super Bowl. However, we are still only through 11 games this season. As of now, Jones has thrown for 2,540 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Past rookie records all came in a 16-game season. Yet Jones is still way off the pace of Andrew Luck, who threw for 4,374 yards as a rookie back in 2012. Justin Herbert also threw for 4,336 yards in 2020. Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are the other two rookies in NFL history to go over the 4,000-yard mark.
Then there is the touchdown total. Herbert threw 31 in 2020, while Baker Mayfield was the previous record holder with 27 in 2018. Jones being at 14 at this point does not have him on pace to break the record, even with the extra game on the schedule this season.
If we want to dive into wins, Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger both had 13 wins in their respective rookie seasons. Jones would have to win out just to tie that mark. Roethlisberger also led the Pittsburgh Steelers to the AFC Championship game in his 2004 debut season.
So while Jones is playing better than the current competition in his class, he has a long way to go to even be in the conversation as the best rookie quarterback of all time.
How Mac Jones can make a run at history?
Winning the Super Bowl as a rookie would automatically vault Jones into the stratosphere as the best rookie quarterback of all time. His regular-season stats would not be as much of a concern if he got the Patriots back to the NFL mountaintop. Even getting to the Super Bowl would put him in the conversation because no rookie starting quarterback has ever made it that far.
As of right now in Week 1,1 there is no reason to count out Jones, as the Patriots as top AFC contenders. The Bills were apparently at that level, only to get embarrassed by the Indianapolis Colts.
The Tennessee Titans were defeated by the lowly Houston Texans, and the entire AFC North looks to be in disarray. That leaves the Kansas City Chiefs as the likely favorite by default. The AFC West, as a whole, is still up for grabs as well.
That may leave Jones and the Patriots in a great position to not just get into the postseason, but to also get in as division winners and as a high seed.
The road ahead for Mac Jones
Jones can continue on his quest for rookie glory by proving he can take down top AFC competition in the coming weeks. We just talked about how teams like the Titans and Bills, who were seen as top contenders, faltered in Week 11.
Well, the Patriots have two games against the Bills and one against the Titans in the next five weeks. The other comes against the Colts, with a bye week thrown in as well. The season then wraps up with games against Jacksonville and Miami, which is when Jones can pad his stats a bit.
We can likely assume Jones won't compete with the passing yards record set by Luck in 2012. The touchdown total is likely out of the question too unless he has two or more big games with four touchdowns or more.
However, what he can do is get close to that 13-win total shared by Roethlisberger and Prescott. Getting to 11 or 12 should even mean the Patriots are playing in the postseason.
After 11 weeks...
Mac Jones and the Patriots lead the AFC East. #NFL https://t.co/aHnjw4RI0V
Getting to the playoffs would be the first huge step in really getting this conversation going about him being the best rookie quarterback ever. And as we stated above, reaching the Super Bowl is what would make the case for him over the likes of Luck, Roethlisberger, Herbert and others.
This is obviously a lot of pressure to put on Jones' shoulders so early into his career. But the Patriots are leading the AFC East, and are one win out of the top spot in the conference. That makes the conversation a fair one to have because it is not often that rookie quarterbacks are in this position.
What is going on with Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson is usually the norm. Rookie quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft tend to go to awful teams, and it is instantly a multi-year path just to get to the NFL postseason.
Jones was just lucky enough to slide down the board a bit, and land at a team with structure. That was a similar path to the one taken by Lamar Jackson, and it could lead to a much better career even if it means giving up millions at the start of his career.