J.J. McCarthy scouting report and NFL Draft projection: Why Michigan QB is the real deal with a few question marks
J.J. McCarthy has the Michigan Wolverines in a position they’ve not been in since 1997: four quarters away from winning a national title. While he has been incredibly successful in Ann Arbor, there are a variety of opinions where McCarthy ends up at in the 2024 NFL Draft, assuming he enters it.
Here’s a breakdown of McCarthy’s strengths and weaknesses for the next level, from my perspective, as well as input from league insiders.
The first question that must be answered -- what are the odds McCarthy enters the 2024 NFL Draft? Right now, I’d say its greater than 90 percent. Though he has told teammates in the past that he’s returning to Michigan in 2024, his actions and the actions of those around him say otherwise.
Just hours before the Rose Bowl kickoff and Michigan’s victory over Alabama, I spoke with several people who said that McCarthy’s team is zeroing in on representation; in other words, he’s close to picking an agent.
At this point, it would be a shock if McCarthy returns to Ann Arbor for the 2024 season. With that in mind, where does the junior land in the draft?
Exploring J.J. McCarthy's strengths and flaws
McCarthy rates high in the areas of intangibles and leadership, and his confidence is off the charts.
He has a moxie to his game that scouts and coaches love. McCarthey has done an outstanding job commanding the Michigan offense the last three years while protecting the football.
He has 49 TDs to just 11 INTs during his time in Ann Arbor. He beat Ohio State three years running, pummeling the hated rival as a freshman and sophomore despite Buckeyes having more talent on the roster.
Although he has had a great offensive line protecting him, McCarthy never had great skill talent surrounding him. Since McCarthy stepped behind center at Michigan in 2021, the Wolverines have had just two pass catchers: tight end Luke Schoonmaker and receiver Nico Collins, selected in the 2023 NFL Draft’s top 100 selections. Both were Day 2 picks.
The earliest a Wolverines running back was selected during that period was Hassan Haskins, who came off the board with the 131st pick of the 2021 Draft. Looking into the near future, running back Blake Corum and receiver Roman Wilson could slide into the third round of the 2024 draft.
So what are the issues for McCarthy? While he’s a big-play college quarterback, many question if McCarthy has a big-league NFL arm. The difference in the speed and velocity on the passes delivered by McCarthy and Jalen Milroe during the Rose Bowl was stark, with the Alabama signal caller coming out on top despite the final score.
Many also question if McCarthy will be able to carry an offense on Sundays, as he has been so reliant on the running game at Michigan. Over the last three years, McCarthy has just 659 pass attempts.
What were the passing attempt numbers of other top rated signal callers the past three seasons?
- Caleb Williams -1,099 attempts
- Drake Maye - 952 attempts
- Jayden Daniels – 1,016 attempts
While there’s something to be said for playing within the system, there's a concern that people in the league wonder how McCarthy will hold up when asked to deliver at least 30 passes every Sunday or close to 600 per season.
Wondering where J.J. McCarthy could realistically land? Fire up our 2024 NFL Mock Draft Simulator to find out.
J.J. McCarthy 2024 NFL Draft projection
The question begs to be asked -- where will McCarthy end up in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Before the 2022 NFL Draft, I said of then-Iowa State running back Breece Hall that he’s a first-round talent who plays a Day 2 position. You can flip that sentiment around for J.J. McCarthy, a Day 2 talent who plays a first-round position.
Quarterbacks are almost always overdrafted every April with 2022, when just one signal caller ended up in the first round, being the exception. I would expect McCarthy to end up in the middle of first round in 2024 to a team like Vikings or Broncos or possibly the Seahawks or even the Raiders.
Sources told me last month that if Jim Harbaugh gets the job in Las Vegas, “He wants J.J. with him.” So, McCarthy ending up in the top half of round one and wearing the Silver and Black next season is a distinct possibility.