Josh Downs 2023 NFL Draft profile: Scout report for the North Carolina WR
Josh Downs, North Carolina: 5’9”, 175 pounds.
Josh Downs was one of the top 100 overall recruits in 2020. After catching just seven passes (and turning three of those into touchdowns) as a true freshman, Downs was a first-team All-ACC selection in 2021, hauling in 101 passes for 1,335 yards and eight TDs.
He missed a couple of games last year (11 played), but still caught 94 balls for 1,029 yards and 11 TDs, making him a second-team All-American.
Josh Downs scout report: Strengths
+ When he’s asked to threaten vertically, Josh Downs has that burst off the line to open the eyes of defensive coordinators.
+ If they put a safety on him in man or in match quarters, he can burn them quickly. Plus, when he forces those guys to give him extra caution, in-breakers become more dangerous.
+ Downs is really good at changing up speeds or step-sequencing and allowing concepts to develop properly. He attacks areas of the field as they’re being cleared out and maximizes the space as he makes that secondary break (such as drag-and-up routes and deep over/bender variations, where he just shows a certain feel for how to navigate around bodies).
+ You give Downs those free releases as the inside guy in bunch sets and his ability to break either way becomes very dangerous. Particularly if the middle is cleared out and he has room to run, with the safeties having to make a tough tackle.
+ When facing defenders in soft press, he can give those guys a bunch of different looks off the line, to keep them off balance.
+ His agility in tight quarters and the way he varies his foot speed along with leaning one way to create angles for himself against defenders is tremendous.
+ Understands how to manipulate DBs with deceptive body-language at the top of routes. Tarheel QB Drake Maye was consistently able to hit him on curls, square-ins and outs right out of the break, where defenders hadn’t been able to redirect forward yet.
+ Regularly asked to sit down in the hash area and make those five-yard catches to stay ahead of the chains. Plus, if safeties shoot down too recklessly, he can make them miss and quickly pick up yardage.
+ He sells that little extra burst just before stopping as somebody sinks with him and forces that guy to give away vision on the QB, before attacking back towards the ball and snatching it.
+ Showcases an advanced understanding for route adjustments against zone coverage, slowing down how he comes out of breaks and sliding towards open space.
+ He’s had to deal with some odd angles of the ball arriving on those bubble screens out of bunch sets and having to adjust to off ball-placement on those.
+ His drop total went from ten in 2021 to just three last year on basically the same number of catchable targets.
+ Attacks the ball in the air better than many guys who have four or five inches on him. Downs hauled in 13 of 18 passes in contested situations last season (only 3-of-14 in 2021).
+ Generally, Downs’ has that bursty running style with the ball in his hands, being able to kick into another gear and beat pursuit defenders across the field, but also to cross them up in the open field. Plus, he has the slipperiness to pull through wraps.
+ Displays excellent awareness for where he is on the field and the bodies around him. He adjusts his upfield-turn based on where defenders are coming from and turns the near-shoulder away from contact effectively.
+ Used as a gadget element by this offense, running fly sweeps, backside bubble options, etc. On those he also does a great job hesitating, nodding one way to set up his blockers and slice through lanes that opened up for him (averaged 7.5 yards after the catch in 2021).
Josh Downs scout report: Weaknesses
- His short arms (30 and 3/8) do come into play when you think he’d pluck a ball on the run, but he has to slow down or has to go off one hand.
– Almost exclusively operated out of the slot for UNC, and if guys are able to land jams playing on the line, his size may become a real issue.
– Also, his exaggerated start-stop route-running may not really fly in the NFL.
– Tends to get too enamored with wanting to juke defenders when there’s no space and he should just try to drive through contact for another yard or two potentially (averaged just four YAC last season).
– Simply lacks the size to really set the tone as a blocker, mostly just throwing a shoulder into defenders who need to go through him and not actively approaching them.
Josh Downs scout report: Grade
Receivers like Josh Downs are very fun to watch. Unfortunately, a lot of guys in that role regularly struggle to find a place on an NFL field. What makes him a little different to many of those super-quick slot receivers is how advanced his understanding of how to find space against zone coverage already is and how big he plays at the catch point.
I think he’s a slot only and for teams that ask those guys to come tight into the formation or peel back on bigger bodies on plays out to the perimeter, he won’t be a fit.
Yet, with the way he can consistently get open against man or zone, along with the make-you-miss ability after the catch, Josh Downs may become his future quarterback’s new favorite target. He just needs to become more efficient once the ball is in his hands.
Grade: Late second round
You might like other 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), Ohio; Zay Flowers (WR), Boston; Jordan Addison (WR), USC; Jalin Hyatt (WR), Tennessee; Jordan Addison (WR), USC; Quentin Johnston (WR), TCU; Noah Sewell (LB), Oregon; Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA; Bijan Robinson (RB), Texas.
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