Why the Kansas City Chiefs won’t win the AFC West this season
The Kansas City Chiefs got back on the winning path in Week 6 with a controlling 31-13 victory. After suffering three losses in four weeks, the sky seemed to be falling upon the Chiefs. Now that their record is back to 3-3, the Chiefs still feel they have a shot at winning the AFC West.
However, Kansas City won't be winning the AFC West for the sixth straight season. The unbeatable aura that the Chiefs have possessed since starting Patrick Mahomes isn't quite the same. There's a combination of reasons they won't win the division, stemming from their defense and the better competition around them.
Chiefs defense could keep them from winning AFC West
The Chiefs defense has been a storyline all season across the league. In Week 6 against the Washington Football Team, they played pretty well. They shut out Washington in the second half. But before that game, they were arguably the league's worst defense.
How bad is the Chiefs defense?
On a per-play basis, the most prolific offense in NFL history is the 2000 Rams. They averaged 7.0.
The 2021 Chiefs are allowing 7.1 yards per play.
Before Week 6, they allowed a touchdown on 41.5 percent of their drives, which was by far the most in the NFL. They were last in scoring defense before Week 6 and gave up 32.6 points per game.
They're not causing turnovers on defense or having success at sacking the quarterback. In terms of sacks, they're the last ranked team in the NFL in sack totals. That could be partially chalked up to Chris Jones and Frank Clark missing games due to injuries.
But even when Jones and Clark have played, they've totaled just two from Jones in Week 1.
In the last 13 quarters, the Chiefs have turned the ball over 11 times. The defense has forced zero.
Absolutely no chance.
Difficult schedule poses problem for Chiefs
The Chiefs' schedule for the first six games included juggernauts like the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills. But going forward, they have unfavorable matchups.
The Tennessee Titans and Derrick Henry can beat any team in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys are Super Bowl contenders. The Pittsburgh Steelers upset the Bills in Week 1 and can do it again against the Chiefs. They also have five games left against opponents in the AFC West.
It's hard to say which between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders will win the division. But both teams have improved defenses that are at least average.
Who can win the AFC West if not the Chiefs?
The Chargers and the Raiders also have offenses that are better than the ones they had in past seasons. Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are ready and capable of winning in big moments.
The Chiefs will still make the playoffs and will be able to make a push at the Super Bowl. But for the regular season, the battle for the division is between the Raiders and the Chargers.