Matthew Stafford's NFL future could end with a different team
Using basic math, it's easy to see that Matthew Stafford's best coach is about .100 points below a Hall Of Fame score. Jim Caldwell was very talented coach, and firing him for a failed Bill Belichick clone could backfire for the franchise. Stafford has had a successful NFL career. But he's never been matched with an elite coach. He's worked with a few coaches, but the Detroit Lions have rarely held long-term success. These winning percentages reflect the team's inconsistency.
Matt Patricia - .314%
Jim Caldwell - .563%
Jim Schwartz - .363%
Comparatively speaking, other active head coaches have racked up many more victories:
Sean McVay - .678%
Bill Belichick - .676%
Mike Tomlin - .660%
Currently, the Lions are 4-7, so they're approaching another losing season. They recently fired their head coach and their general manager. This transition marks the end of an era in Detroit. As a result, the future for Stafford is quite unclear.
Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions are struggling in 2020:
The Lions have cut ties with their coach, and his time with the franchise is often viewed as a failed transplant of the Patriots' culture . Now, Detroit is searching for a new identity and a fresh leader. The front office has to reevaluate the franchise's short-term and long-term future. This analysis includes a decision about Stafford because he's an aging QB that is often seen as the face of the franchise.
If the Lions choose to remain with Stafford, their coaching list should be limited to offensive play-calling coaches. At this point in Stafford's career, he needs continuity in his scheme. So Detroit could choose to focus on a coach that can maximize the remainder of his career. But if the Lions choose to move on from Stafford, he'll be in a rare situation.
Given his lengthy tenure with the team, he'll likely be allowed to pick his next destination. Finding a new home could reignite Stafford's career. With Detroit, Stafford might have to endure another rebuild. But moving elsewhere could allow Stafford to choose a contender and chase a Super Bowl ring. Stafford will probably have many suitors, as several teams need a talented QB.
Group 1 For Stafford: Teams That Unlikely But Fun To Think About
The Cleveland Browns:
The weather in Cleveland this year has been terrible. On the field, Baker Mayfield has struggled to overcome this obstacle. But Matthew Stafford's arm strength ranks among the best in the league. The Browns' front office still has some faith in Mayfield, so he could get one more year to prove himself. That being said, Stafford would arguably be the best QB the Browns have had in a long time.
The Chicago Bears:
The weather is a primary factor here, too, as Stafford's arm could thrive in the "Windy City. Stafford could be the answer coach Matt Nagy is looking for, as others have struggled to excel in his scheme. The Lions probably won't move Stafford to a division rival, though. Stafford might be a good fit in Chicago, but it's not a likely destination for the former Pro Bowler.
Group 2 For Stafford: Teams That Should Consider But Probably Won't Sign Him
The Washington Football Team:
Ron Rivera is building a strong culture in Washington. But this team is still too deep in the rebuild to take a risky gamble. Signing Stafford could backfire, and this decision could cripple a rebuilding franchise. Washington might be better off drafting a young QB and growing with him instead.
The San Francisco 49ers:
Jimmy Garoppolo's future looks murky at best. Plus, coach Kyle Shanahan would probably like to have a quarterback of Stafford's caliber. But if he chooses to look for a new signal-caller, he might focus on young QBs with room for growth. He may also look at QBs he has previous experience with. Shanahan could consider a reunion with Matt Ryan, a QB he's taken to the Super Bowl.
Group 3 for Stafford: somewhat likely destinations
The Denver Broncos:
The Broncos' current 4-7 record will probably prevent them from getting a premier draft pick. But they're also clearly outside the playoff picture. Denver is stuck in limbo, and their path to success probably doesn't include Drew Lock. As a result, John Elway could be forced to look elsewhere. He hit on an established QB almost a decade ago, and he might hope Stafford can turn the franchise back into a playoff contender.
The New England Patriots:
Belichick might be drawn to Stafford's ability to excel in stressful situations. He's tied for 8th all-time for 4th-quarter come backs with 30. Stafford also has the arm to handle the weather in the AFC East. Stafford would likely relish the ability to play with a coach that's bound for the Hall of Fame. New England also needs an upgrade at QB because the Cam Newton experiment hasn't panned out yet.
The Indianapolis Colts:
General manager Chris Ballard has set this team up for success. He's remade the Colts from the offensive weapons to the stout defense. But Indianapolis still needs a QB. Phillip Rivers will be in the Hall of Fame someday. But he's a declining game manager on a one-year deal. Stafford would be an immediate upgrade, and he could turn this playoff contender into a strong threat to win the AFC.
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Option 4 for Stafford - staying with the Lions
Stafford is 32 years old. In theory, he's right in the middle of his prime. Staying with the Lions remains an option, but the team needs bring in a coach who can maximize his skills. Still, the rest of the team needs a lot of work. It could take a while to turn the Lions into a winner. So top-tier coaches like Eric Bieniemy or Greg Roman might opt to sign with teams that are closer to success.
Conclusion
Belichick and Elway should be prepping their respective assets to acquire Stafford. He's a Hall Of Fame-level talent, and the Lions need a fresh start. Detroit is bound for an extensive makeover, and Stafford could be destined for a better situation where he can truly shine.
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