Mid-season NFL awards (2023):
While the 17-game schedule for each team has thrown off where exactly the mid-way point of the NFL season is, we are through nine of 18 total weeks and we’ve played exactly half of the 272 contests (136). So at this point, it’s time to summarize what has happened here a little bit and hand out all the major awards as if the season ended today.
I’ll once again break down the top three candidates through half of 2023, making my case for each of them, based on watching the tape and looking at the numbers, along with reflecting a little bit on what I predicted just before we kicked off the year. A quick note on that – I could have literally used the cover photo from back then.
Let’s get into it:
Most Valuable Player:
1. Lamar Jackson
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Tua Tagovailoa
As I proclaimed after seeing the Ravens destroy the Seahawks 37-3 this past Sunday, they are the best team in the NFL right now. We’ll get to the defense a couple of categories from now, but Lamar Jackson is playing the quarterback position at a significantly higher level than he ever did during his MVP campaign back in 2019. Accounting for 14 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions sounds pretty good, but those numbers aren’t even close to encapsulating what he’s meant to this team. Prior to this past Sunday, the Browns, Lions and Seahawks were all top-ten defenses in terms of EPA per play – with Cleveland still at number one. Baltimore outscored those three opponents 103-12 and Lamar didn’t even play a full fourth quarter if you combine the playing time across those three fourth quarters. And I can point to three or four plays in each of those that I’m not sure another QB in the league could’ve made. The Todd Monken offense is running smoothly now, but they certainly needed some time to get there and Lamar navigated them through some tough times, only to not get chances to finish drives as a passer early on and boost his stats. Individually, he leads the league with a 71.5% completion percentage, he’s tied for fourth in yards per attempt (7.7 YPA) and he’s tied for third among ALL players – behind only Jalen Hurts and Christian McCaffrey – in first downs picked up as a runner (32) despite being 31st in attempts. The Ravens could/should really be the only undefeated team right now – and the two losses aren’t on Lamar in the grand scheme of things. Against the Colts, a pass over the middle should have resulted in them setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime, but a blatant pass interference call was missed, and against the Steelers, his receivers dropped eight(!) passes, which directly took three touchdowns off the board basically.
I believe there’s a steep fall from Lamar to the rest of the pack right now. I could think of a couple of skill-position players worthy of consideration, but understanding that this is a quarterback award and treating the Offensive Player of the Year as a separate category for non-QBs, I’m going to stick with that position here. While the Ravens may ultimately snatch it away from them, the 7-2 Chiefs currently own the number one seed in the AFC and while it hasn’t been perfect, Patrick Mahomes has still played at a high level when needed. The story for Kansas City really has been the defense, which is allowing the second-fewest points per game (15.9 PPG), but their quarterback has performed better than his numbers would indicate and has been able to navigate the offense through some murky waters. I would admit that Mahomes had two legitimately bad games – at the Jets and at the Broncos – in which he threw one touchdown compared to four of his eight interceptions. However, his receivers have dropped four more passes (23) than any other group in the league. And looking at their two losses against the Broncos and back in the season-opener against the Lions (when they lost 21:20 without Travis Kelce), he should have had a perfectly-placed 26-yard touchdown to Skyy Moore and a third-down conversion on a crosser to Kadarius Toney, which instead turned into a pick-six on his resume. If those two passes alone are caught, they probably at least win one of those contests. I think the offense definitely feels the loss of former OC Eric Bienemy to some degree and even Mahomes’ one reliable pass-catcher Travis Kelce has been banged up at times. And yet, the Chiefs QB ranks third in EPA per play and two areas he really separates himself in – he easily has the best pressure-to-sack conversion rate (14.6%) and despite their infuriating tendency of getting jet sweeps stuffed on third downs, the Chiefs are fifth in conversion percentage on that down (45.5%), with Mahomes’ ten yards per scramble and 17 first downs as a rusher being a major factor.
That brings us to number three and you can’t feel great about this coming off a season-low 14 points scored by the Dolphins this past Sunday in Germany, even if it came against the Chiefs’ excellent defense. People wanted to eviscerate me three weeks ago, for having Tua as my number seven overall quarterback in the league and tiered him with the “great system guys”. Since then, the offense scored 10 points at Philadelphia and then just had that disappointing performance vs. Kansas City, in which they were shut out in the first half. That 70-burger they put on the Broncos back in week three feels like ages ago and it still pumps up their stats, but he did sit out the entire fourth quarter that day and I’m not going to act like this attack hasn’t been a fireworks show for most of the year. My whole point back when I put together that QB index was that Tua executes that offense at an extremely high level, but when defenses have the edge schematically on certain days and he’s asked to elevate his surroundings, there are some limitations. He still deserves a lot of credit for running the show at such an extremely high level. Miami remains number one in yards and points per drive and game each, as well as yards per play (7.1 YPP). Tagovailoa himself ranks first in passing TDs (19), passer rating (106.4) and second in yards per attempt (8.5 YPA), despite having the shortest time-to-throw (2.38 seconds). His ability to alter arm slots to get the ball out on time, manipulate second-level defenders with his eyes, and attack windows in coverage are as good as it gets. Yet, on top of that, he’s improved his passing outside the numbers and created more off-script, extending plays and delivering big throws off a new or not a clean platform altogether. The Dolphins and their signal-caller have to prove they can defeat true contenders, but head coach Mike McDaniel is continuing to evolve an explosive scheme and Tua is cashing in on the opportunities he’s given.
Honorable mentions: Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen & Jalen Hurts