NFL expert says 49ers risk disaster if they guarantee Brock Purdy $200,000,000 deal
NFL commentator John Middlekauff has cautioned the San Francisco 49ers about the financial risks of offering quarterback Brock Purdy an enormous guaranteed deal as contract talks approach this offseason. Purdy is entering the last year of his rookie contract.
Purdy has taken the 49ers to two NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl in his first three years since being drafted as the last pick of the 2022 NFL draft.
In his Friday YouTube commentary, Middlekauff spoke about the ongoing negotiations surrounding Purdy's contract extension:
"Whenever they give him the contract—because if you tell me right now, it's like, 'Hey, they signed him to a contract and they gave him $100 million guaranteed,' I'd be like, 'Oh my God, it's one of the great steals of all time.' If you tell me they give him $200 million guaranteed, the conversation's different," said Middlekauff (30:27)
The contract discussions has picked up steam, with Purdy's rookie deal set to expire after the 2025 season. ESPN's Dan Graziano reports that his salary for the next season has already increased from approximately $1 million to $5 million because of performance escalators.
Brock Purdy gets candid about the 2024 season
Brock Purdy recently spoke about the 49ers' dismal 2024 season, blaming their poor performance on exhaustion following back-to-back deep playoff appearances. The team ended up last in the NFC West after losing seven of their last eight games.
"Last year, man, guys were tired," Brock Purdy said on the "Built 4 More" podcast, as reported by NFL.com on March 29.
"That season is no joke, and when you go from July of training and everything, all the way to the end of February, and then you really get five weeks off or so [until] you've got to report back, and then you're going again, guys are tired."
The quarterback's market value remains a subject of debate. ESPN's Dan Graziano projected a four-year, $196 million deal with $112 million guaranteed for Purdy. This would place him tenth in the NFL for average annual salary at $49 million per year, ahead of established stars like Patrick Mahomes.
Grant Cohn of Sports Illustrated presented an alternative in a March 28 Sporting News article, proposing the 49ers sign Purdy to no more than $97.5 million for three years. Cohn based the amount on what Purdy would make on his last rookie year ($5.3 million) and two franchise tags ($41 million and $51 million).
The quarterback market has changed significantly, with many players currently having contracts exceeding $200 million. Five of them were signed last offseason alone, including extensions for Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence.
John Middlekauff's skepticism regarding a $200 million guarantee relates to broader concerns about team construction. Such a significant financial commitment could limit the 49ers' capacity for retaining talent around Purdy, especially after a 2024 season in which injury issues revealed depth issues throughout the roster.