Russell Wilson fantasy football breakdown: Expert reveals why picking Broncos QB is not a hot take
After a paltry 2022 season, Russell Wilson will likely be available later than many quarterbacks in fantasy football drafts this year.
Many, if not most drafters, will find that appropriate and will promptly skip him. However, one fantasy analyst believes there is decent reason to pick him up. Analyst Sal Vetri explained why over a lengthy series of tweets. Here's how he put it:
"Russell Wilson saw career-lows last year in accuracy, touchdowns, and fantasy points. However, Wilson partially tore his hamstring in October.
He played 75% of the season with this injury and operated behind a bottom-10 offensive line. Check this out. Wilson was pressured on 38% of his dropbacks. This was 6th worst among starting QBs."
He went on, naming an improved offensive line and Sean Payton as reasons to believe in the quarterback this year:
83% of his teams have finished Top-10 in offense.
Here’s your takeaway:
Russ is now healthy with a better situation around him.
Consider him & this next RB:
"But now his O-Line has improved... The Broncos just spent $140 million on their line this offseason. PFF ranks them as the #1 most improved unit. And Denver hired new coach Sean Payton. 83% of his teams have finished Top-10 in offense. Here’s your takeaway: Russ is now healthy with a better situation around him."
Of course, getting the quarterback is a risky move, especially if one takes him earlier than later. Simply ask those who got him in 2022.
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Exploring Russell Wilson's fantasy football return in 2022
From 2012 until 2020, getting the quarterback in fantasy was always a solid play. Over that span, the quarterback earned close to 300 points or more per season in arguably all but the 2016 and 2013 seasons.
Put another way, he averaged at least 20 points per game in five of those seasons and earned just shy of that mark in another couple of seasons.
However, in 2021, the wheels began to fall off. Wilson earned 17.3 points per game and 242.82 points for the year, per Fantasydata. Most wrote off the performance due to his injury. It also turned out to be his last season with the Seahawks. In his debut season in Denver, most expected a rebound.
Instead, they got a further step back with more injuries and an even lower average and point total for the season. He averaged just 15 points per game and put up 224.76 points for the year, more than 100 points less than his best year.
At this point, getting the quarterback is seen as a big risk, but there is reason to take him as a QB2 with QB1 potential if he gets overlooked in a fantasy draft.