NFL Draft 2024: Final one-round mock draft feat. Patriots' surprise non-QB pick
We’ve arrived at draft week, only a couple of days away from Roger Goodell officially putting the Chicago Bears on the clock in Detroit, and it’s time for me to reveal my final mock draft.
Putting this thing together was as challenging as I can ever remember at this point, because of the uncertainty starting so early. I’m not going to shock anybody with the first overall pick here, but number two appears to be a coin-flip and then from three to six, we could see a bunch of movement, which of course dictates everything that follows.
So I might still talk about some potential adjustments that may be coming based on more information coming out, but let’s have some fun here! This is going to be a predictive exercise, meaning based on what I hear, read and believe will happen, rather than what I think teams should do.
Here, we’re going to make our way through the top-32 selections plus fits for the three teams who don’t currently own a first-round pick.
NFL Draft 2024: Final one-round mock draft
1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Because of all the intrigue around who will be QB2 and some wide-ranging opinions on how these six names generally discussed as first-round picks will ultimately come off the board, there actually hasn’t been a ton of talk about Caleb Williams on the field at least.
To me, he’s the best quarterback prospect I’ve personally evaluated in the eight years I’ve really done work on the draft. The backyard-style of play and Houdini-like play extension stuff is truly special and why he gets a lot of Patrick Mahomes comparisons, but what isn’t discussed enough is how clean his mechanics are, the fact he fights to stay within the pocket and how well he can operate within structure if he has answers for what the defense is doing.
Last year, the protection and receivers he was working with at USC, along with head-scratching offensive designs, blurred the minds of some people. But I would be shocked if he didn’t at least turn into a quality starter in Chicago for a long time, considering the infrastructure they’ve now incorporated. He has a chance to be called the best signal-caller in franchise history by the time he signs his second contract. Hope is coming, Bears fans!
2. Washington Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
This is where things get interesting because we’ve had three different front-runners to go second overall since Williams became the overwhelming favorite in terms of betting odds. Right now, I believe it’s a toss-up between North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. However, since I have Maye graded significantly higher, that’s what breaks the tie for me.
I've been saying that he is the most overthought prospect in this draft. In terms of size, arm talent, composure and mobility, this is what the NFL is always looking for. Yet, all of a sudden, he’s the guy people nit-pick like crazy when it comes to things like locking out his front foot, not always having his base aligned and some of the oddly missed throws.
The high-level stuff he brings in terms of layered throws down the field, the off-platform deliveries and the timely chain-moving runs easily makes me look beyond those and I can live with him being a little bit too aggressive of a decision-maker. With the continued investment in the offensive line and the pass-catching crew they’ve assembled, I think he has the pieces around him to be successful.
I’m just worried about what we’ll get from Kliff Kingsbury, who coincidentally was responsible for some of the issues we saw on Caleb Williams’ tape as the OC for the Trojans, which can induce more hero-ball tendencies, as we discuss these top two names. But Maye to me has been QB2 for a calendar year now.
3. New England Patriots – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
We’ve heard about the Patriots being “open for business” with this third overall pick, kicking off what could be three or four straight trades, but I actually think they stick and pick here. Unless the Giants love whoever the Commanders don’t take and move up three spots here, New England will likely be in contact with one of the three teams just outside the top 10 and that probably takes them out of the range for Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt and the trio of top wide receivers.
So in this scenario, I don’t think they get an offer that blows them away and take the slam-dunk player in Marvin Harrison Jr. He has nimble feet off the line, is really strong to break free from physical corners, weirdly flexible in his ankles to make precise cuts for being 6’4”, 205 pounds, tracks the ball exceptionally well and his body-control at that composition is just bonkers.
He doesn’t have elite long speed and the reason some people have Malik Nabers ahead of him as the top receiver is that he doesn’t offer a lot of creativity in the open field, but he’s as complete and pro-ready a pass-catcher as we’ve seen enter the league in a decade. The Patriots haven’t built up the support system for a rookie QB yet, but this is a critical building block for if they end up picking early again next year, as they finally get a legit number one to go with the complementary pieces they have in place.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (via ARZ) – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Alright, let’s get this party started! The Cardinals have been connected as the Marvin Harrison team pretty much since the draft order was locked in. If he’s available for them, I’d think it would take massive draft capital to move off him, but in this case, he’s off the board and general manager Monti Ossenfort will be very happy to trade down.
The Vikings have the highest draft capital to offer here and there could be some other teams in the mix, but I have the Raiders jumping them and taking Jayden Daniels. In this scenario, to move up nine spots, they also need to throw in the 44th overall pick and their first-rounder next year.
However, I had to take the connection between Daniels and the guy who originally helped recruit him at Arizona State in now-Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce. I’m not sure if they would be this aggressive for any other QB, but I think the Heisman trophy winner lighting up the “Death Star” in Vegas should also have owner Mark Davis on board.
I don’t know if this is a plug-and-play team yet, but they’ve looked at themselves differently, handing out a huge contract to Christian Wilkins in free agency and Davante Adams still there as a star receiver, who I imagine catching a bunch of the slot fades we saw Daniels air out for those LSU guys.
I’m a little concerned about the development plan of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, coming over from Chicago, where he was working with a similar type of profile as more of a one-read-and-go player in Justin Fields, but this possibility isn’t talked about enough, I believe.
5. Minnesota Vikings (via LAC) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
And we keep the train rolling, as the Chargers at number five have been the obvious trade-down candidate the entire way pretty much. Could they just stick here and take the top offensive tackle or whoever they prefer as WR2 on their board if they don’t love any of the offers made to them? – Sure.
But they’re motivated to add more shots here and the Vikings didn’t set themselves up this way if they didn’t want to get their guy from Michigan. No team has been linked more frequently to McCarthy than Minnesota, and even though I believe that if Drake Maye is available at number three, they’ll absolutely be calling New England, this just makes way too much sense.
They swap their two first-rounders (11th and 23rd overall) plus a second next year for this pick and if there’s a team set up to get the most out of J.J., it’s them. Anybody who’s taken a look at my big board (which you can check out at halilsrealfootballtalk.com), knows I’m significantly lower on him than consensus and I think it’s crazy that we talk about him in this range, but with how long this has been in the works seemingly, this doesn’t feel like a Will Levis-type of smokescreen.
This is one of the best situations we’ve seen a rookie QB dropped into, where he has star receivers, a good offensive line, linked at the hip with a tremendous young play-caller and having Sam Darnold there, to not force him into the action right away. McCarthy’s willingness to attack the middle of the field and the ability to deliver the ball accurately on the run with his flexible arm, when they move the pocket, would fit very well.
6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The top four quarterbacks are off the board and while the noise around the Giants being ready to move on from Daniel Jones seems to be getting louder, I don’t think they love either of the two still available at this point. So instead I’m going to go chalk here and give them what would be the number one receiver in the vast majority of draft classes in Malik Nabers.
There’s been some discussion around how well his personality would fit in with a big-market team, especially with how the marriage between the Mara/Tisch franchise and Odell Beckham Jr. eventually came to an end, but Nabers provides a dynamism on the offensive side of the ball that this team has been severely missing since they moved on from OBJ.
They already have a bunch of designated slot receivers on the roster, which is where this guy primarily operated from in 2023, but while I prefer him off the ball, I don’t have too many questions about play strength and I think he would be an awesome flanker.
The instant acceleration pops off the screen, the way he either threatens vertically and then snaps off routes or lures defenders into stopping their feet momentarily and then blows by them is rare. His focus and coordination to haul in passes even through contact at just six foot stand out and then he’s an absolute game-breaker once the ball is in his hands.
7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Who has thrown their names out as another potential trade-down candidate, but I’ll take another lay-up in what otherwise is a highly challenging draft to project. I have Olu Fashanu just ahead of Alt in my offensive tackle rankings.
But this is still where he stacks up for me on the big board and I’d think he’s number one for the majority of NFL teams. 6’9”, 320 pounds, with just over 34-inch arms, checked all the boxes from an athleticism standpoint at the combine and then he’s still improving, as a 21-year-old former tight-end, who has only been a full-time offensive lineman for the last three seasons with the Fighting Irish.
Tennessee has let us know what they think of themselves, throwing big money at Calvin Ridley, still a solid sum for Tony Pollard, trading for and locking up L’Jarius Sneed on the defensive side of the ball – they want to see what they have in Will Levis during this rookie QB contract window. New Titans head-man Brian Callahan hands a potential future All-Pro to his dad and one of the great O-line coaches in Bill Callahan. No need to overthink this or get cute here.
8. Arizona Cardinals (via LV and ATL) – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
At number eight we would typically see the Falcons making their selection, but I have the Arizona Cardinals repeat what they did a year ago when they allowed the Texans to trade up to third overall for Will Anderson Jr. but then popped back up for the offensive tackle of their choice in Paris Johnson.
This time around they secure themselves the last of the “big three” wide receivers. For the move up by 5 spots, they give up the first of their 3 third-rounders at 66th overall plus one of their fives. The reason they have to do this is that I can’t really see Rome making it past the Bears or Jets as the next two teams up and this way they still secure themselves a legit number one, with what they currently have at the position.
Odunze is incredibly smooth at 6’3”, and 210 pounds. Looking at the Reception Perception profile from Matt Harmon, he finished between above-average-to-elite on every route he ran and then his body control and ball skills are just insane.
The way he adjusts to passes down the field and how he positions himself to win through contact is illustrated very well by the fact that he had a 75% contested catch rate. While he’s not quite as physical, we’ve already seen this type of profile match very well with Kyler Murray when he was working with DeAndre Hopkins and now the other receivers they have in Arizona slot into their more natural pecking order.