NFL fantasy diamonds: Why Calvin Ridley, Anthony Richardson need a double take in 2023
NFL fantasy football is back and it’s time to give you a few names to target in your upcoming drafts.
I went through consensus rankings and put together my own, compared those against each other and now I’ll highlight the names that present the most surplus value to target in your draft.
All consensus rankings are provided by FantasyPros, who collect the data from a bunch of the main platforms and are based on half-PPR scoring formats
You can listen to all of this in video format here.
Let's get to our first position now:
NFL fantasy diamond quarterbacks: Justin Herbert
Average draft position: QB7, 48th overall
My rankings: QB5, 42nd overall
I rarely start with a quarterback ranked this highly and have been a subscriber to the idea of finding those late-round gems in fantasy drafts (such as Patrick Mahomes ahead of his 1st year as a starter, Lamar Jackson for his MVP season and others).
But as somebody who got burnt last year by the combination of Matt Stafford and Tom Brady falling in the double-digit rounds, I’m leaning towards addressing the QB position earlier in general. Then we need to acknowledge the fact that the difference between the elite guys in fantasy to the middle of the pack is as big as it’s ever been.
Herbert right now is one of the final two among the seven or eight guys you’d consider as part of that tier.
Just looking at the numbers, in three years with the LA Chargers, Herbert has finished ninth in total fantasy points (despite not playing Week 1) as a rookie, then second in 2021, and finally 11th this past season, when he cracked a rib all the way back in Week 2.
Even without any context about how the offense was constructed or how that injury lingered around and affected him throwing the ball, if he just has the 48.2 points he’s at least added as a runner in each of his first two seasons, he’s the number five QB in the NFL.
Adding context here, about not having his excellent young blindside protector in Rashawn Slater for 15.5 weeks, his top 2 WRs in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missing 11 combined games and the fact he literally punted on a couple of plays just because the rib injury bothered him, and there would have to be a lot going wrong again for him to be in similar circumstances.
There’s been plenty of conversation out there about Joe Lombardi’s offense and what kind of insane levels they went to in terms of holding back Herbert’s ability to push the ball vertically. He was often led to check it down, due to not having the guys who could break open down the field, defenses being all over them, or just how plays were designed in the first place.
Herbert went from finishing second to only Matt Stafford with 25 passes of 40+ yards between 2020 and 2021 to just seven last year and he was 31st league-wide in intended air yards per attempt. That’s along with how static their concepts were and how few yards after the catch they gained because of it.
Now you have Kellen Moore coming in to call plays after four years in Dallas, where they finished between 4th and 9th in EPA per dropback in all but one of those (which is when Dak Prescott got hurt a month into the season) who has missed time otherwise too.
The way he marries the run-and-pass game is so much more impressive than what they did under Lombardi (where they lacked diversity in schemes they used in the ground game and defenses had a beat on when they did want to take shots off play-action from heavier personnel).
Mike Williams hopefully will be healthy for most of the season as one of the top ball-winners down the field. And then you’re looking at who they added in the draft.
First-rounder Quentin Johnston has to fix how he approaches the catch-point and take advantage of his size and hops when there is contact, but he has the burst off the ball to run by people and more importantly, he’s one of the scariest dudes when it comes to catching it on the move and what he can do with it at that size.
The only Power-Five receiver to average more than Johnston’s 8.9 YAC last season was actually his former TCU teammate Derius Davis (who the Chargers also selected in the 4th round and could be a gadget player for them) and Quentin has been a monster in training camp reportedly.
So a more well-designed offense, more firepower among the receiving corp (without putting pressure on Herbert to always make it happen) more dynamic passing concepts and healthy ribs.
All the signs are there for Justin Herbert to have his best season yet and you’re actually grabbing him on a value. To get him in the fifth round after you’ve already filled out your two RB and WR slots potentially is a path to take.
NFL fantasy diamond quarterbacks: Anthony Richardson
Average draft position: QB17, 128th overall
My rankings: QB12, 78th overall
This deservedly is the top-ranked rookie passer I believe. You’re not getting a huge bargain in the final couple of rounds (as your current QB17), but I think he can be that name among the guys you get somewhere into the double-digit rounds.
Anthony Richardson could deliver those huge weeks that end up putting you in the playoffs and ultimately winning you your league. Richardson only started 13 games at Florida, with all but one of those coming this past season (when he completed just under 54% of his passes for a little over 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns vs. nine interceptions, along with 103 carries for 650 yards and nine more TDs).
So the raw numbers are certainly not up there with the two guys that went ahead of him in the actual draft, but he ended up sandwiched between those two in my real-life rankings. I think in terms of the hunt for one of the true superstars at the position, you could make a case for him being number one.
There were moments of defenses rotating the coverage or him not quite having calibrated what he can get away with, while mechanically there are things he can still clean up to perfect the way he gets the ball out. However, in terms of the quarterback-y things you may not be able to fix as quickly, such as keeping your eyes down the field, navigating the pocket and manipulating or using your eyes to lead conflict defenders the wrong way, there’s a lot to like already.
That’s along with the fact he has an absolute rocket attached to his right shoulder and literally is the freakiest athlete we’ve ever seen at the quarterback position, considering he beat several combine records.
That explosiveness doesn’t just show up when rushing for 70-yard touchdowns against LSU, but also the ability to create velocity on the ball and take advantage of smaller windows. His receivers didn’t help him out a whole lot even when he put the ball in spots for them where they could make a play on it, he was 10th in the FBS with a pressure-to-sack conversion rate of just 9.2%, had an insane 38% missed-tackle forced rate as a runner and only four of his 14 turnover-worthy play rates came over the final five weeks.
So while the real football and fantasy nerds may realize the potential and particularly in best ball formats, he probably comes off the board earlier than where he’s currently listed. In many of your home leagues people may think “I’m not taking this rookie, who’s inaccurate and a project altogether” – and that’s where you can capitalize.
I absolutely love his fit with the new Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Steichen helped Justin Herbert have a monster rookie season through a vertical passing attack with the Chargers. He also just helped Jalen Hurts be the runner-up for MVP with a much more simplistic approach offensively in Philadelphia. He took a lot OFF the quarterback’s mental plate and allowed the talent around him to shine while facilitating a rushing attack that enhanced Hurts’ strengths as a power runner.
Richardson may not be as cerebral as Herbert or as poised as Hurts at this point, but his talent altogether is superior to both of them I would say and he was asked to run an offense that lent itself more to the pro game than either of those guys, who both just received mega-contracts.
Indy has an interesting collection of skill-position guys, with their starters in 12 personnel all being between 6’4” and 6’7”, giving him maybe a little bit more room for error if he’s not pin-point accurate all the time, along with a couple of quick slot options to gain more separation.
I think under Steichen that entire unit could see a massive bump up and Richardson provides a steady rushing floor while having great upside. Especially if he’s presented with easier looks in the RPO game and is allowed to push the ball vertically to those tall targets, he could deliver plenty of big plays through the air as well.
After that group of seven or eight guys I referenced at the top, he could easily be right there as the next name up.
Honorable mentions: Geno Smith (QB14), Matthew Stafford (QB20) & Desmond Ridder (QB31)