NFL Mock Draft 2023: First-round picks plus opening selections for Broncos, 49ers and more
The 2023 NFL draft is just days away. After grinding away at the film of over 300 prospects and putting out extensive scouting reports, I’m once again trying to do the impossible of predicting what will happen on Thursday during the first round of the draft.
However, I also don’t want to forget about the five fanbases of teams that don’t currently own picks on Day 1. Based on a few mocks I did personally, along with looking through consensus boards, I have linked them to prospects that make sense.
This is me predicting what I believe will happen, rather than who I would pick (even though there are some names swirling around that I just didn’t feel comfortable putting in the first round). Now let’s dive in with pick number one and the Carolina Panthers:
#1. Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
As crazy as this pre-draft process has been, I have never wavered on the idea of Bryce Young going first overall. He’s now the overwhelming favorite at -1400 on the betting market, which tells us it’s basically a done deal.
Yes, he’s a historic outlier at 5’10”, around 190 pounds in terms of actual playing weight, but he’ll be the QB1 on most team’s boards. This is because he sees the field extremely well and is willing to stand in the face of pressure to deliver big-time throws, along with the special play-making skills that he provides.
By trading away D.J. Moore to acquire this pick, the Carolina Panthers’ receiving corp leaves much to be desired. But they have built a strong, young offensive line and could have one of the top defenses in the league under Ejiro Evero (similar to the surrounding pieces Bryce had at Bama). With the strong staff Frank Reich has built in Carolina, I think they could be ready to go in a wide-open NFC South.
#2. Las Vegas Raiders – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (via HOU)
This is where the chaos/fun starts. It does seem somewhat like the Houston Texans are trying to set up some kind of scenario for themselves, how they may not love this quarterback class and that they might go with a top-tier edge rusher at this spot. But I just don’t see how you can just stick-and-pick a non-QB here.
So instead, I have the Las Vegas Raiders trading up from seventh overall, in exchange for picks 70 and 141, along with a second- and third-rounder next year, in order to secure their franchise signal-caller in C.J. Stroud.
Josh McDaniels did reunite with Jimmy Garoppolo in Vegas and I could see him starting early on, but Stroud’s ability to play from within the pocket and deliver strikes off their heavy play-action game as well as operating in a spread-out passing attack will be very intriguing to him.
GM Dave Ziegler and company have already kind of gone all-in with the moves they made last offseason, and now they’re swapping Derek Carr for somebody on a rookie contract to be able to keep the roster mostly intact.
Ziegler’s comments about their outlook at the position and how they don’t really take the results of the S2 test into account – after people have started making a big deal of Stroud’s poor performance – sealed the deal for me.
#3. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (via ARZ)
If there’s one team in this draft that we pretty much know for certain wants to trade out of their pick, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. They have definitely done their part to sell the idea that they’ve received a bunch of calls, but may ultimately have to settle for a smaller offer.
I have them switching one spot with the Indianapolis Colts (who have been linked to number one when the Bears still owned that pick and for that slight move up), in order to secure their quarterback in Anthony Richardson. In this case they give up pick 79 and one of their fifth-rounders. The Colts have been desperately trying to find an answer at that spot, with several veterans putting their careers to rest in Indy, so it’s time to go the exact opposite route and grab the most talented signal-caller in the class.
Richardson is obviously an insane athlete for the position and should have immediate success in a rushing offense that looks very similar to what Shane Steichen ran in Philadelphia. Bbut he’s also not nearly as raw a passer as the media is making him out to be.
His desire to play the position from within the structure and his manipulation of key-defenders, along with the pocket-navigation you simply can’t teach, make me believe he could end up being the diamond of this draft.
#4. Arizona Cardinals – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech (via IND)
So after moving back one spot, the Cardinals still get their choice of non-quarterbacks and they need help on defense in a major way, on the front- and back-end. However, with the retirement of J.J. Watt and not being able to re-sign Zach Allen, that’s where I think they need to attack.
Even though new GM Monti Ossenfort probably doesn’t have the same weird obsession Steve Keim put on display of wanting these hybrid defenders with unique skill-sets, I believe Tyree Wilson is well worthy of that selection.
He's not as far along technically as Alabama’s Will Anderson, but the way this kid can move at 6’6” and 275 pounds is nuts. He packs insane natural power to discard blockers and create issues in the run game, but his pressure-per-pass rush rate of 19.2% last season – even though it did come against Big-12 competition – was actually superior to everybody currently projected to go in the first round.
#5. Seattle Seahawks – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Speaking of Will Anderson, I don’t believe the Seattle Seahawks looked at this as a real possibility a couple of months ago. But with the hype around the quarterback class and Wilson reportedly climbing up boards, this is how I could see things shaking out (unless the Texans legitimately are locked into the Alabama superstar at number two overall).
If he does make it here, I have a tough time seeing John Schneider, Pete Carroll and company passing up one of the great cornerstone players in this draft (looking at how hard he works on his game to set a physical edge against the run and his ability to convert speed-to-power to condense the corner in the pass game).
Seattle has invested several high draft-picks into the position, but this guy will set the table for that unit and become the leader for them early on already, while Uchenna Nwosu slides back into a more fitting role of Robin to Anderson’s Batman.
#6. Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
This seems like the chalk pick at this point, looking at all the mock drafts out there, but one I’ve had in mind for months already. When Detroit signed cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton in free agency, I considered going a different route here for a bit, but once they decided to trade away former number three overall pick Jeffrey Okudah to Atlanta, this became a lock for me.
Devon Witherspoon may be half an inch short of six feet and just over 180 pounds, but he plays like nobody has ever told him that. His junkyard dog mentality will fit perfectly with the culture Dan Campbell has built in the Motor City, but this guy has elite cover-skills on top of it, whether it’s the lightning-quick ability to click-and-close, the recovery burst to make up for being a little too aggressive at jumping routes at times and how great he is attacking the catch-point.
He could be that number one corner defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn needs to make a more man-heavy scheme work if he wants to get back to his roots.
#7. Houston Texans – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (via LV)
With the noise around passing on a quarterback and going with Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson second overall, the Texans drop to down to the number seven slot and both those edge defenders are off the board. However, one of the big-four signal-callers is still available and listening to reports out there, he may actually be their QB2 anyway.
Will Levis has received a lot of hate during this pre-draft process. And while I understand some of the frustration around lazy footwork at times and some the immature decision-making (on the field and in choosing the stuff he likes to eat), he comes very much in the mold of the prototype the NFL has typically looked for (a big frame, strong arm, incredible toughness and leadership qualities).
Even though this is a little high for my taste, if you go back to the 2021 tape, when he was totally healthy, some of the big-time throws he delivered and what he added as a runner on top of it, makes me understand why you would want to invest a first-round pick into him.
#8. Atlanta Falcons – Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia
We’ve arrived at the eighth overall pick and my number one overall prospect is still on the board. Obviously, the reason Jalen Carter would be available at this point has nothing to do with what we saw on the field, even though some “analysts” out there are looking for engagement by saying he doesn’t always play hard.
If the Atlanta Falcons feel comfortable with the kid off the field, they couldn’t let the nearby product slip by them. Carter is a special athlete on the interior D-line, with insane flexibility and twitch for the position, but also the brute strength to control and shed offensive linemen at will.
Atlanta is desperately looking to upgrade a pass-rush that has recorded 23 fewer sacks than any other team in the league over the past two seasons combined and they haven’t been able to put any real impact-players along the D-line with Grady Jarrett. Carter has a chance to become a superstar for them and he has those big brothers next to him now in Jarrett and recently-signed Calais Campbell.