NFL Over/Under - Will WR Mike Evans have over or under 1,000 receiving yards in 2021?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans holds the NFL record for the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with seven through his first seven seasons in the league.
2018 was his best season with 1,524 yards (17.7 yards per catch). In 2017, he just made the mark with 1,001, and again last season with 1,006. Mike Evans has 8,266 yards and 61 TDs through seven seasons in the NFL, all with Tampa Bay, and did so with inconsistent QB play. Mike Evans played alongside Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston and future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady last season.
Tampa Bay brought back all 22 starters from their Super Bowl team last season, and have the fourth-easiest schedule in 2021. The first game of the 2021 season is in less than two weeks, but can Mike Evans extend his record to eight straight 1,000-yard seasons, or is he set to see a dip this season?
Will WR Mike Evans record another 1,000-yard season in 2021
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have several high-profile targets in offense other than Mike Evans.
Chris Godwin had 840 yards (12.9 average), and Tom Brady's old reliable TE from the New England Patriots, Rob Gronkowski, had 623 yards (13.8 average). TEs Cameron Brate and OJ Howard are returning. and are set to have better production than in 2020: 282 and 146 yards.
WR Scott Miller is becoming a great option at WR3 with 501 yards (15.2 average), and Antonio Brown returns after a decent 483 yards (10.7 average). When you factor in RBs Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones ll and Giovani Bernard as receivers in the backfield, it doesn't seem there will be enough targets for Mike Evans to get 1,000 yards.
QB Tom Brady had 4,633 passing yards in 2020, his highest since 2012 with 4,827. The truth is that Tampa Bay have quite a bit of talent at WR and TE, making it difficult for defenses to guard all of them on every play. Chris Godwin could end up with more double-teams than Mike Evans, which would bode well for Evans' hopes for another 1,000-yard season.
Their 2021 NFL schedule heavily favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have a great season. They play the weak NFC East, Tom Brady's old stomping grounds (AFC East), their own lackluster NFC South and additional games against the Chicago Bears, LA Rams and Indianapolis Colts.
The Atlanta Falcons gave up the most passing yards in 2020, and the New York Jets with the 5th-most, while the Rams and WFT allowed the fewest. Still, four games are against teams who gave up at least the 10th-most passing yards. Mike Evans had two of his four 100-yard games last year against division rivals. He torched the New York Giants for 190 yards in 2019 and 120 in 2018. He's almost guaranteed to have great games against the NFC East and division rivals.
Mike Evans' fantasy outlook is looking great for 2021. Yahoo! Sports projects him to have nearly 1,100 yards. He has averaged nine targets per game in his first six seasons, but had just seven per game with Tom Brady last season. He had a career-low 109 targets, but was still able to cling onto a 1,000-yard outing.
The good news is that Tampa Bay were pass-heavy in 2020, and that doesn't look to change this year, with primarily receiving RBs on the roster. It'll be another race to the finish, but if Mike Evans can avoid missing a game, he should be able to muster up around 1,100 yards.
It would be an impressive feat, as the Buccaneers tend to use him as a deep threat, a spot he does not produce well at. Evans is just great at picking up yardage.
Over - 1,150 receiving yards.