NFL Playoff Picture: NFC South a complete mess but somebody has to win the division
The NFC South is unlike any other division in the NFL, it gets more baffling and confusing every week. For every step forward the three contenders take, they take three steps back shortly after.
The one-win Carolina Panthers are out of the picture as the NFC South is firmly between the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints.
The Falcons' ugly victory over the New York Jets was enough to get them to 6-6 and go top of the South. New Orleans managed to claw back and almost complete a big comeback at home vs the Detroit Lions but they fell short. Tampa Bay managed to scrap out a close win vs the Panthers as they move to 5-7, the same record as the Saints.
The Saints have a plus scoring differential, but the Falcons and Buccaneers have a minus differential. None of the four teams have a winning record on the road as the home form carries these teams. Derek Carr and Desmond Ridder have been pretty shocking this season, Ridder was even benched at one point.
Baker Mayfield is essentially the only NFC South QB who's flashed consistency, throwing 18 touchdowns to 8 interceptions.
All three of the frontrunners have a soft schedule largely because they got to play each other. It's looking like each of the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles will be going on the road to an NFC South team in the wildcard. Neither of those teams is going to be intimated by the Falcons, Saints or Buccaneers.
It's over for the Panthers but nobody knows who's winning the NFC South and hosting a playoff game.
NFC South odds according to Vegas
Before the season started, the New Orleans Saints were Vegasindisder's clear favorite to win the division at 130+. Atlanta was projected to finish second, the Panthers third, and the Tom Brady-less Buccaneers were projected to be awful. Derek Carr was expected to lead New Orleans to 9.5 wins and end the Buccaneers' two-year run of winning the division.
Twelve games into the 2023 season we know the NFC South has been a mess beyond belief. There are plenty in the mix for the NFC wildcard spots but one of these teams is probably gonna win more games than the South's division winner and miss out on the playoffs.
All of this is to say that the NFC South could probably end up being one of the more intriguing divisions as we enter the holidays.