NFL playoffs probabilities for 3 of the 2022 season's overachievers
The 2022 NFL season stuck true to its promise of parity and produced many pleasant surprises in the playoffs. Three of those were the New York Giants, the New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Out of the three, the Jets did not make the postseason, but there was a lot to like about them last season and expectations are high in 2023.
Let's talk about those three teams, analyze what led to their success, and predict if they can make the playoffs come the end of the campaign.
#1. New York Giants: Playoffs probability - Low
If you asked anybody in August 2022, very few would have picked the Giants to make the playoffs.
The Giants got their big break thanks to former Buffalo Bills OC Brian Daboll manifesting a quick turnaround in New York. Heading into the season, the Giants seemed to have an underwhelming offense, and a defense that, despite gleaming with potential, was still young and would take years to develop.
But Daboll quickly proved that his successes in the NFL with Josh Allen and teams like the Alabama Crimson Tide were no fluke. Daniel Jones seemed to find new life starting under center and receivers like Isiah Hodgins and Richie James became border-line formidable.
Their defense was one of the best in the NFL, with players like Kayvon Thibodeaux, Azeez Ojulari and Dexter Lawrence giving fans flashbacks to the shut-out defense of previous eras.
The Giants bowed out in the Divisional round of the playoffs, with them massively outperforming preseason expectations. Daboll won the NFL's Coach of the Year award, for his instrumental role in turning around the fortunes of a team that seemed to be stuck in purgatory.
With such positivity surrounding the Giants, it seems impossible that they could revert to the mean. However, I feel that they are poised to do this exactly.
While they may boast a roster oozing talent, it is important to note that they play in the NFC East, which is by far the NFL's toughest division. I still feel that the Big Blue has some way to go before they can go toe-to-toe with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys, who are the biggest threats in the NFC East and the whole NFC Conference.
Furthermore, the Giants also have an unenviable schedule. Apart from having to play the Cowboys and Eagles twice, they also have to play some of the league's best teams (San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins).
While it may be a hot take, I don't see the Giants making this year's playoffs.
Projected finish: 3rd in NFC East, playoffs missed.
#2. New York Jets: Playoffs probability - High
2022 was a golden year for the NFL's New York fanbase, as the Jets also pleasantly surprised everyone.
It's fair to assume that not many people even had the Jets sniffing the postseason before the season began. However, with both the NFL's OROY and DROY in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, masterminded by Robert Saleh, the Jets took down the likes of the Bills and the Green Bay Packers.
However, poor play by QB Zach Wilson saw them succumb to a late-season collapse, which undid any hopes of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
The Jets have been quick to act on their success though, as they traded for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. While it almost certainly signals that the Jets have accepted that the Wilson era has come to an end in the Big Apple. I love this trade, as having a former MVP leading your roster will certainly boost any chances of achieving something major in this window of hope.
Saleh is easily one of the best defensive-minded coaches in the NFL, while OC Nathaniel Hackett has overseen some of Rodgers' best football in Green Bay, which is certainly reason for hope. Realistically, this could be one of the most successful seasons in recent Jets history.
While fans should be optimistic, we need to see them do well on the pitch before feeling confident in calling them a contender. A year ago, the Denver Broncos were the talk of the NFL, following their high-profile trade for Russell Wilson.
Expectations were lofty and there was even talk of winning the Lombardi Trophy. However, any optimism was quickly dashed, as the offense was one of the worst in the NFL. The Broncos finished last in their division and were one of the worst teams in the league. Will that happen in New York?
Projected finish: 2nd in AFC East, 6th seed playoffs.
#3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Playoffs probability - High
The Jacksonville Jaguars certainly did come ahead of schedule. While they had a young team with a proven head coach in Doug Pederson, the consensus was that it would take a few more seasons to find their groove.
Despite a slow start, the Jaguars picked up, thanks to heroic performances by Trevor Lawrence and Jamal Agnew, both of whom were rewarded with a place in the Pro Bowl.
The Jaguars proved that they were no fluke in the postseason, where they came back from a 27-0 hole against the Los Angeles Chargers. They also gave eventual Superbowl winners the Kansas City Chiefs a run for their money.
Of the teams I mentioned so far, the Jaguars are the team that I am most confident will continue to satisfy high levels of play this season. Lawrence looks to be a franchise QB, and the young core of the Jags means that they could be a serious threat in the NFL for years.
They also are blessed to be a part of the worst division in football in the AFC South. The Jaguars were the only team from the division to boast a winning record, and they don't seem like they will give up their crown soon, as the offseasons of their division rivals weren't inspiring.
With an easy division and a strong core of players, expect the Jaguars to be a force to be reckoned with for many seasons.
Projected finish: 1st in AFC South, 4th seed playoffs.