NFL power rankings after the first quarter of the 2023 season
We’re one month into the NFL season and it’s time for our first power rankings over the year. While there are teams many feel more or less confident about in their opinions on them, generally, fans have a good understanding of who the main contenders in both conferences are and which 10 plus/minus two teams have a legit shot at lifting up that Lombardi trophy in February.
At the same time, there may be about the same amount of groups who feel like they don’t have real playoff aspirations. That’s why the middle of the pack may end up being so interesting, to see who still rises or falls.
As always, these are rankings, not standings. That means even if we have two teams with the same record and one of them beat the other head-to-head, that doesn’t automatically determine their order.
Let’s get into the list:
#1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
Only the Philadelphia Eagles and 49ers are still undefeated. Philly has won by a touchdown on average, San Francisco by an average of 16.8 points and if not for the LA Rams kicking a meaningless field goal against them with zeroes on the clock, they would’ve won each matchup by multiple scores. They’re obviously the only team in the top three in terms of points scored and allowed.
Their offense ranks behind only the Miami Dolphins in EPA per play (0.236) and Brock Purdy is currently on pace for the greatest EPA per play season of any quarterback in NFL history (0.456). When they have their full arsenal of skill-position weaponry with Kyle Shanahan continuing to expand the playbook, they’re nearly unstoppable.
Any of their guys can create explosives, but they can also grind down their opponents, as we just saw with 30(!) first downs gained on just 53 plays vs. the Cardinals, and they’ve only turned the ball over once. Their defense has not quite been as dominant statistically, but their big free agency addition Javon Hargrave has been the most effective interior pass-rusher in the league.
Second-year edge defender Drake Jackson has certainly taken a step, Isaiah Oliver’s physicality and match-coverage skills have provided an upgrade at nickel and the numbers look better than what they actually would be if there wasn’t as much garbage time in their games. They have a huge matchup at home vs. the Cowboys coming up Sunday night, however.
#2. Buffalo Bills (3-1)
The Bills have arguably been the most effective team in the league when you consider they’re currently third in EPA per play on offense (0.203) and fourth in that regard on defense (-0.192). They can take advantage of favorable looks when defenses keep two safeties deep.
Josh Allen currently towers over the rest of the league in terms of completion percentage above expected (9.7%), making some of the most ludicrous throws you’ll see every week look effortless. And while Stefon Diggs is currently putting on a clinic routing up defenders to be that high-volume number one, there is room and reason to believe those ancillary pass-catchers will become more prominent going forward.
Their defense has been highly impressive statistically, ranking fourth in EPA per play, being tied for a league-high 16 sacks and leading the pack with 11 takeaways. However, more importantly, they just held Miami to season-lows in yards per play, points and basically all other advanced metrics.
Losing Tre’Davious White for the season with an Achilles tear is a major loss – but their institutional understanding of how to make everything on the back end feel compressed by the way they squeeze down patterns in zone coverage is tremendous, their D-line has taken another big step collectively and hold on, Von Miller might be back next week.
#3. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
A lot of people may argue Philly should be number two, since they’re the only other undefeated team left, but it just hasn’t nearly felt as easy for them so far as it did last year.
They won three of their games by six points or less to the Patriots, Vikings and Commanders this past Sunday, when they needed overtime, who are a combined 4-8. Having a perfect record with the 10th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense a month into the season is almost unheard of.
The Eagles aren’t the same kind of efficient passing attacks they were in 2022 when they got a ton of freebies in the RPO game, but they’ve gained a league-high 43 first downs on the ground (second with 661 rushing yards) and then they take their shots down the field off that, as Jalen Hurts currently is second in terms of average intended air yards (9.8), according to Next Gen Stats.
So far it has mostly felt like whenever they’ve really wanted to grind people down with the run game, they’ve been able to and D’Andre Swift has given them some more juice in that regard, while DeVonta Smith and now also A.J. Brown are back to dunking on defenders. While their duo of Georgia first-round D-tackles have acclimated themselves wonderfully, they’re banged up in the secondary and they’ve now allowed Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Sam Howell to have the best days of their respective seasons.
#4. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
Their only loss came by one point in the season-opener versus the Lions, when they were missing Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, while having a freak pick-six off the hands of Kadarius Toney run back against them.
Yet, we can also spin this the other way, where things may look very different if one Jaguars receiver managed to keep both feet in bounds for touchdowns on three or four occasions and someone jumps on the snap off Zach Wilson’s knee or the referees call things a little less in their favor against the Jets, and this team is at best .500.
As per usual, the smarter choice is to believe KC will figure things out. Especially, since the part that needs to improve the most is the passing game and even after an uncommonly tumultuous performance, betting against Patrick Mahomes isn’t very smart.
He just refuses to get sacked by the way, as his percentage of dropbacks ending with him on the ground (1.3%) is less than half the rate of any other QB, despite both his tackles having really struggled, with Jawaan Taylor leading all NFL players in penalties.
Defensively, they’re currently fifth in EPA per play (-0.129) and third in opposing success rate (38.8%). Sure, they just allowed Zach Wilson to arguably have the best performance of his career, but they’ve stopped the run very well and Steve Spagnuolo has that versatile backfield tunes in, which is why they’re top-ten in third-down (33.3%) and red-zone TD percentage (45.5%).
#5. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
The loss at Arizona was weird. They were missing a couple of starters, made a couple of uncommon mistakes and probably just didn’t take their opponents very seriously. Outside of that game, they’ve outscored the two New York teams and the Patriots by a combined score of 108-to-13, handing Bill Belichick the worst loss of his coaching career.
The defense has been absolutely dominant, ranking behind only the Browns in EPA per play (-0.269). Outside of the Cardinals game, the Cowboys D has allowed just one other touchdown, while having scored three such themselves, plus another one on a blocked field goal. They’ve held opposing quarterbacks to a league-worst passer rating of 55.6, only the Bills have sacked those guys at a higher rate of dropbacks (11.5%) and they’re the only team with single-digit tackles missed (eight).
So even when they allow quarterbacks to get the ball out, either there’s somebody who gets their hands on it themselves or they’re ready to shut down whoever comes up with it quickly. Meanwhile, other than that one bad end-zone interception he threw vs. Arizona, Dak hasn’t turned the ball over otherwise and he’s seventh in EPA per play (0.186) league-wide.
The O-line has provided them a great baseline to work with in both facets and they lead the NFL in third-down percentage (51.6%). The only real blemish on their resume is the red-zone efficiency, having converted just 36.8% of those trips into touchdowns (30th in the league).
Maybe above all though, they’re number one in what I coined the HRF statistic a couple of years ago, starting their drives a full nine yards further ahead on average than their opponents (32.8- vs. 23.8-yard line).
#6. Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Even following their game against the Bills, where they only scored six more points following consecutive touchdown drives to start the day, Miami easily leads the league with 8.0 yards per play – 1.7 yards clear of any other team in the league – and they’ve got some separation in terms of the number two team in EPA per play (0.293).
Tua is still first in yards per attempt (9.6) despite the shortest time to throw among all NFL quarterbacks (2.37 seconds) and this is mostly based on a couple of long house-calls against the Broncos, but Devon Achane currently has twice as many average rushing yards over expected than any other running back with 20+ carries right now (6.39 yards).
This doesn’t feel like what we saw from December onwards last year in terms of teams “figuring out” how to slow down this explosive attack. With that being said, we need to see this defense become more disruptive, as currently no other team has allowed opposing offenses to reach a higher success rate (51.3%).
#7. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
As Robert Mays put it so appropriately on Sunday afternoon, “Lamar Jackson made five plays in [the Browns] game that would simply make me quit the profession if I were a defensive coordinator”. Baltimore is fifth in offensive success rate so far (47.6%) and that’s despite Lamar throwing the ball 2.6 yards short of the sticks on average (ahead of only Bryce Young and Daniel Jones among starters).
While the rushing attack has yet to really pop, they do move the sticks efficiently on the ground, as only the Eagles have gained more rushing first downs (37). Plus, when they do move the ball, they put it in the paint, as they lead the league with an 80.0% touchdown rate in the red-zone. That’s with room upwards, when their receiving corp is fully healthy and they figure out the optimal allocation of this backfield.
Meanwhile, they’ve been able to overcome several injuries on defense so far. They’re currently top-three in EPA per play (-0.217) and success rate against (37.5%), as well as tied for first with the Browns in yards per play (3.8 YPP), Only allowed opponents to convert 30% of red-zone trips in touchdowns.
They may not have a standout pass-rusher, but they have bunch of guys that can collapse the pocket, as they’re bringing a bunch of simulated pressures and change the picture post-snap to force QBs to hold onto the field, plus off that they’ve been able to create open lanes for their linebackers and Kyle Hamilton as part of the rush.
#8. Detroit Lions (3-1)
The Lions look like a much more complete team now. Their offense currently ranks behind only the Dolphins and 49ers in net yards per pass attempt (7.3) and Jared Goff is tied for second with 18 passes of 20+ yards.
While the rushing attack isn’t overly efficient due to the heavy volume, particularly in positive game script, they have the O-line to win up front in key situations and a play-caller in Ben Johnson who keeps defenses guessing, with the diversity of run schemes and little wrinkles he adds on a weekly basis in the passing game.
The bigger story here however has been their defense, which currently ranks top-ten in EPA per play (-0.090) and success rate against (41.6%). The two main reasons for their turnaround are a much more capable pass-rush, ranking second to only the Browns with a 27.7% pressure rate, and after getting pounded on the ground for stretches last season, right now they’re tied with the Browns for the lowest success rate allowed vs. the run (30.0%) and second in yards per attempt (3.0).
Aidan Hutchinson is becoming a force off the edge, rookie slot defender Brian Branch has made his presence felt on numerous occasions and they’ve been much more consistent with making the correct reads and providing help in coverage on the second level.