NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2022 season
We’ve now seen 13 of 18 weeks of regular-season games in the NFL. Just like after the first month of the season, I thought it was time to rank and tier all 32 NFL teams yet again.
As I always say – these are power rankings, based on what I perceive teams to be right now, rather than listing them by record and basically creating a standings table. Some squads may have started off slowly but are starting to hit their groove, while others have fallen off as the season has progressed. Funnily enough, numbers one and 32 are still the same today as they were for me back on October 5th, but there’s been plenty of shake-ups between the two. Here are the power rankings of all 32 NFL teams:
NFL Power Rankings: The big four
#1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-1)
I personally called for the Titans upset on Sunday. I thought with their ability to match the physicality up front with their defensive line and (how some teams have been able to take advantage of Philly’s five-man fronts), they’d be able to control the game to some degree.
Through 27 minutes, things were looking pretty good with a score of 14-10 in the Eagles' favor, but then they took charge in a major way. I didn’t realize rookie D-tackle Jordan Davis would be back in the lineup, along with the veterans they added to that group (since that instantly transitioned them back into a wall to run against), while their pass-rush destroyed Tennessee’s protection.
A.J. Brown got revenge versus his former team and has allowed everybody on the offense to shine. They take advantage of one-on-ones when opponents stack the box, yet if they overplay #11, Jalen Hurts has a bunch of guys at his disposal who can take advantage of those favorable looks. The QB can get it there accurately. Plus, then he of course adds that +1 in terms of box counts in the designed run game and has ripped off some key scrambles to keep drives going.
Defensively, if they can live in those front dynamics again, they have the CB tandem to squeeze down route patterns. This, along with safeties, who are more aggressive with triggering on stuff in front of them. That’s how Philly is allowing an NFL-low 4.7 yards per play and they’re now four clear of the next-closest team with a turnover differential of +13.
#2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
Prior to their trip to Cincinnati, I would have put Kansas City at the top of the list. They obviously lost by three points, but it was such a closely contested game, where they nearly pulled it off after a slow start. I broke down their offense in depth on my most recent video, previewing that matchup with the Bengals.
The way they can run the ball from under center and more 12 personnel sets, along with taking some shots off play-action, has diversified their portfolio on offense. Patrick Mahomes is playing at as high a level as we’ve ever seen, navigating the pocket, recognizing coverage rotations and placing the ball into borderline indefensible spots. Thanks to that, they lead the NFL yet again with 6.5 yards per play and in points scored (29.2 per), along with the Bills having barely overtaken them for the best third-down conversion rate (51.4%).
Their defense just allowed 27 points to Cincy and we see what those teams with multiple legit receivers can do against a young group of defensive backs. They’ve held opponents to less than 4.7 yards per rush in all but three of 13 games so far, and DC Steve Spagnuolo can throw some creative pressure packages the opposing way in crucial situations to force the issue.
You combine what Mahomes & company can do with a pass-rush that can close games – as they pressure the opposing QB on 24.4% of dropbacks (seventh-best in the NFL) – they’re still one of the two teams most likely to come out of the AFC. However, they’ve already lost those direct matchups against Buffalo and Cincinnati now.
#3. Buffalo Bills (9-3)
With that win in Kansas City back in Week 6, the Bills now have the tiebreaker over those guys and control their path to the conference’s number one seed. Along with hosting each of their three rivals still, they have a trip to Chicago and Cincinnati on deck. They’ll be favored in every matchup, because at full health, they might just be the best all-around team in the NFL.
The Eagles on the NFC side may be more complete, because of the way they can run the ball, but Buffalo has elite quarterback play. I really like how Ken Dorsey has brought more variety in terms of personnel and conceptually to that offense. They simply haven’t taken enough care of the ball, as the Colts, Saints and Texans are the only teams with as many or more than their 20 turnovers.
The Bills defense, on the other hand, has created a turnover or held their opponents to below 250 total yards in every single one of their games, whilst having multiple takeaways in seven of those. That’s despite all but one of their five starters in the secondary missing multiple games. They’re not quite as dominant situationally, ranking 14th in third-down (38.8) and 23rd in fourth-down percentage surrendered (60%). But they’re better at creating pressure with four, in combination with the way they can flood the field and create tight windows in zone coverage.
They’re also tied for fourth in takeaways (20) and when you do get into the red-zone against them, they’re one of only five teams that allows touchdowns less than half the time (47.2% - third). Not only are they number one in overall team DVOA, but they’re also tied for first in the HRF.com metric of where they start drives on average compared to their opponents, at +3.1 yards of field position.
#4. Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
I’m still a bit hesitant to put the Cowboys into this top tier because of their past. We’ve seen them look like a juggernaut at times, before laying an egg in the playoffs. Yet, from what we’ve seen since their overtime loss at Green Bay a little less than a month ago, I just don’t have any justification on the field as to why they wouldn’t be up here.
Dallas is one of only five teams that currently ranks top-ten in yards per run and pass each. Since the return of Dak Prescott against the Lions (24 points), they’ve scored at least 28 points on that side of the ball alone, along with a couple of defensive touchdowns. They’ve finally realized that Tony Pollard should lead this group in touches because of the dual-threat ability he presents. Zeke can shine in short-yardage and goal-line situations and Ceedee Lamb has emerged as a true number one receiver and somebody different seems to catch a touchdown every week.
Despite losing All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith before the season even started with a hamstring injury, nobody has given up fewer sacks on the year (15). Defensively, they’ve been vulnerable on the ground, allowing an average of 163.7 rushing yards in their six matchups versus top-ten groups in that regard. If they can get you in some long-yardage situations or play with a lead, they can be devastating.
Micah Parsons has been an even bigger game-wrecker this season and his effect has rubbed off on that entire front, which legitimately goes like ten guys deep. Meanwhile, they’ve gotten some solid play from veterans and young guys on the back-end. Dan Quinn has really excelled at making quarterbacks hold onto the ball with the way they change up the picture after the snap. They’re number one in the NFL in pressure rate (29.3) and just one behind the Eagles’ NFL-high 23 takeaways.