NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2021 season
There are five weeks left in the NFL season, and with the last four teams wrapping up bye weeks, this is as close to the three-quarter mark as we’ll get. Therefore, it was time for me to go through all the numbers, watch some more film and rank all 32 teams against each other heading into the final stretch.
I think there’s a fairly clear top-five, which you could order in a few different ways and a couple of teams with the potential to join that group. And similarly, there’s a group at the bottom, which consists of about the same amount of teams, that have practically – and one even technically – eliminated themselves from playoff contention – and their play also reflects that. The middle group is really what’s hard to figure out because some of those teams look like contenders one week and then let us down the very next.
Still, this is the list I came up with in the end, not just purely ranking the teams based on record, but also taking recent form into account and where they should come in, as I evaluate them at this very moment. Let’s dive into it:
1. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Coming off a late bye, if there’s one NFL team that might have their best lineup out there as we come to a close for the regular season, the Packers would qualify for it. They did lose Elgton Jenkins for the rest of the season, which is big, because he gave them that flexibility, to where he could actually play all five positions on the O-line effectively, but they should get All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari back this week, along with Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones. And then on defense, their two best players from a year ago in Za’Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander also have a chance to return on Sunday Night, while some of their young guys have really stepped up in those guys’ absence. I love when teams can win in different ways and when they’re not 100 percent – which Green Bay has done both. They can play ball-control, with the best time and turnover rate per drive and they’re a top-ten defense pretty much across the board in terms of numbers. Aaron Rodgers has only had a unit of that status complementing him twice. He once won the Super Bowl, and then it took that group to completely F it up on a few key plays to keep him from going back to the big game.
2. Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
Numbers one and two are really interchangeable to me, because the Cardinals own the best record in the NFL and might be in as a good a position right now as any team in the league, considering they were able to rest their two most key offensive players in Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, only to bring them back this past weekend. They controlled the game against the Bears all the way, with those two hooking up for the first touchdown of the day. This is the only team that is in the top-four in points scored and allowed, as well as turnovers committed and forced. I mean, all you really need to know is that they went 2-1 without Kyler, along with several other players, and even with those three games missed, he might be the MVP of the league. As you go through all the metrics, the only thing they somewhat have an issue with is stopping the run, where they give up the second-most yards per attempt (4.7), but have the league’s best EPA against the pass, and while I unfortunately couldn’t find a definitive number on it, I don’t think another team has been trailing for a lower portion of games than them. The only reason I have the Packers ahead of them is that I believe Matt LaFleur to be a sharper offensive play-caller, and while it took A.J. Green run-blocking in the end-zone, when every single person in the stadium knew they would throw it, they did lose that game to Rodgers & company.
3. New England Patriots
Who does that? Throwing the ball three times in an NFL game in 2021? I mean, with one attempt in the first half, they set a new low-mark for the last 43(!) years. And of course, the extreme wind was the determining factor, but Josh Allen did drop back over 30 times. Yet, Mac Jones has easily been the most effective rookie passer over the course of the season. And while that Monday Night gameplan certainly isn’t sustainable, it just shows you how transformable the Patriots are. The identity of the offense is clear, with nine straight games of over 100 yards rushing and an average of 155 a week over their seven-game win streak. Defensively, they’ve given up more than 13 points just once over that stretch and taken the ball away 19 times, showing the ability to change up their fronts on a snap-to-snap basis and being as well-coordinated in the secondary as any team in the league. Now, you can argue they’ve faced four top-half-of-the-league quarterbacks and offenses all season long, and when Dallas came to town two months ago, they couldn’t get off the field, but what Bill Belichick and company have done is extremely impressive. Nobody wants to see them right now, and they actually get this week off.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
Doesn’t this feel almost exactly like last year again? The Bucs lose a few games, but then get a win in a game, where they didn’t seem to be the better team that day (Minnesota last year, Indy two weeks ago), they pull away from the Falcons after being in a back-and-forth game, and just as they get everybody back in December, they get on a roll and carry that momentum into the playoffs. At this point, we have no idea about the status of Antonio Brown and Mike Edwards, thanks to their fake vaccination cards and the effects that may have internally, but they’ve gotten lucky with Vita Vea’s injury turning out to be much more minor than it originally looked like, and once Carlton Davis returns, they have their starting 22 back once again. Right now, the Bucs are easily the number one offense based on DVOA and several of the standard metrics – including surrendering pressure on three percent less than the next-closest team (10.6%) – and that’s without AB’s services as the deep threat element for a large stretch. And the defense, while certainly not looking dominant, is starting to really heat up, with Shaq Barrett creating havoc off the edge and the way that whole unit goes after the ball.