NFL: Tom Brady vs Patrick Mahomes - Who is Favored to Win the Super Bowl?
This Sunday evening will see the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady versus the best quarterback of right now, Patrick Mahomes, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
Man, I'm excited!
Super Bowl LV matchup - Brady vs Mahomes
In the Super Bowl, the man in the pocket comes under increased pressure: the opposition's defense is hungrier than ever; fan expectation can weigh heavy on even the most seasoned veteran, and the bright lights have been known to blind some of the very best QBs to ever lace 'em up. It's crucial to any team's success that its quarterback can navigate all this, play the game that got them to the final in the first place, and, ultimately, execute the plays.
With that in mind, let's take a look at which of these two legends, Mahomes or Brady, will reign supreme in Tampa on Sunday at the greatest sporting spectacle on planet Earth, the Super Bowl!
QB attributes and season stats
Brady: This will be Tom Brady's 10th Super Bowl appearance; 10th! That's more than any NFL franchise has managed except just one: the Patriots (feat Tom Brady). If anyone knows how to get the job done under the spotlight, it's Tampa Bay's veteran quarterback.
Brady heads into this weekend's game off the back of an exceptional year: T-2nd passing TDs (40), and T-3rd total passing yards (4,633-yards) in the NFL during the regular season. In the post-season so far, Brady has also thrown for the most yards (860), but the former Michigan Wolverine must cut down on the picks if Tampa is to hoist the Lombardi Trophy come Sunday. Brady threw 12 picks during the regular season (28th in NFL) and was picked off 3x vs the Packers in the NFC Conference Championship a week ago. If the Buccaneers allow Mahomes too much time in possession, it's going to be very hard to eke out a W; even with that superb D of theirs.
Mahomes: Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL: 4,740-yards passing (2nd in NFL); 38 TD throws (4th NFL), and a QB rating of 82.9 (2nd NFL) says all you need to know about the supreme talent the former Texas Tech star has in those hands.
In the AFC Conference Championship vs the Bills last week, all the news heading into the contest was concern over Mahomes' fitness: he had suffered a big hit against the Browns and was touch-and-go to play due to the NFL's strict concussion protocol. Mahomes showed no ill-effects and was as dominant as ever, finishing up with a cool 325-yards, 3 TDs, and no picks, as the Chiefs took an easier W than many expected.
This will be Kansas' gunslinger's 2nd successive Super Bowl appearance; we all saw him get the job done against the 49ers last year, so he isn't likely to be fazed by the added pressure of the big game either.
Verdict: In current form, Mahomes is the better player - it's unquestionable. But, to bet against a man who has 6 Super Bowl rings in a Super Bowl final would be incredibly shortsighted. I can't split them at all... but the time of possession is going to be absolutely critical. Brady must cut-out the picks! If he can do that, it's an even playing field.
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Offensive firepower
Brady: Brady probably has the best set of wideouts in the game right now. Coming up against Mike Evans (1,006-yards; 13 TDs), Chris Godwin (840-yards; 7 TDs) and (if fit) Antonio Brown (483-yards; 4TDs in just 8 games) is a tough matchup for cornerbacks/safeties to deal with. When you add rookies Scotty Miller (watch out for him on Sunday; 501-yards; 3 TDs) and Tyler Johnson (those hands, though!?) into the mix, things can become nightmarish very quickly, and the Chiefs will need to be at their absolute best in coverage and on pass-rush to stop Brady hitting these guys in stride.
Mahomes: While the talent pool may not be as deep on the Chiefs offense, Mahomes does have one of the -- if not the -- greatest tight ends in football history to target. Of course, I am talking about Travis Kelce, the Chiefs record-breaking TE who finished the year with a jaw-dropping 1,416-yards (most ever posted by a TE). Then, there's 'the Cheetah,' Tyreek Hill for Bucs fans to worry about. Hill's unstoppable turn of pace and nose for the endzone saw him finish the year with 15 TDs (2nd in NFL).
With both of these players carrying their regular-season form into the postseason, the Tampa D will need to be at their dominating best to stop KC from chalking up big yards and scores.
Verdict: The Bucs may have the deeper pool at wideout, but the two biggest threats on the field will be Kelce and Hill (not to mention Hardman!). The Chiefs have more offensive firepower as a result (in my opinion at least).
Past meetings
Super Bowl LV won't be the first time these two titans of the game have squared off. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have already crossed swords on four previous occasions, including a tough contest earlier this year at the Raymond James Stadium.
In that game, Mahomes went to town on the Buccaneers’ defense, finishing up with 462 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 victory.
Brady threw for 345 yards and three touchdowns but was picked off twice, by Bashaud Breeland and Tyrann Mathieu. Something he'll certainly be hoping to avoid this Sunday!
Brady was 2-1 versus Mahomes during his time at the helm of the New England Patriots though, leaving the two QBs locked at 2-2 overall.
Verdict: Neither QB has an advantage, but the Chiefs will surely take some confidence into the Super Bowl with them having already bested Brady and the Bucs on home turf just a few months ago.
Final Verdict: I don't take any pleasure in trying to pick between these two greats, but - for my money - Mahomes has better options to throw to and a better running back (Edwards-Helaire) to help pound the ball downfield, which could be pivotal.
Tampa's defense has been incredible during the playoffs and if they can keep it up, the Bucs will have a huge chance to pull off an upset. Will they be able to repeat past performances if Brady launches 2-3 picks to Matthieu and company? Perhaps not. Every coach in the game knows that to beat the Chiefs, you need to go long scoring drives; be safe with the football, and keep Mahomes off the field -- it's the only way to win against them, and I think Brady will turn that baby over (just a hunch).
I'm going to be shortsighted and predict the Chiefs win, 35-30 (I'll live to regret this, I'm sure).
Agree, or disagree? Have your say in the comments section below:
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