NFL Week 15 DFS lineup advice feat. Josh Allen, Derrick Henry and more
Week 15 offers a full slate of NFL games as we’re past all of the BYE weeks and going full steam towards the playoffs. If you’re a DFS junkie or just someone who dabbles when your season-long team is eliminated, there is always a need for more data points. I’m going to give my favorite plays and general thoughts for DraftKings as we try to win back some of what our wives spent on Christmas gifts.
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NFL DFS Lineups Week 15
QUARTERBACK
I don’t want to spend up if I don’t have to. Dropping $8500 on Josh Allen in a potential shoot-out might seem like a good idea. But he’s not going to drop a 50-burger every week. I think people will chase Allen due to his massive scoring output last week and the hype around this game. I’m spending my money elsewhere.
If you’re looking to pay top dollar, you might also consider Lamar Jackson ($8300) against the hapless New York Giants. I’m not feeling it, though. New York gives up the 16th fewest fantasy points to QBs. They haven’t had a signal caller go over 20 points against them since Week 7. With all of the injuries to the G-Men, I can see Lamar going off, but for my money, I’m saving the salary for cheaper options.
If I’m saving some money at the position, I like Tua Tagovailoa ($6100) against Houston. We’ve seen Tua go over 300 yards passing in three straight. The Dolphins simply can’t run the ball anymore and aren’t even trying to hide it. Dropping back Tagovailoa 40+ times in that same three-game span has resulted in a 2-1 record for Miami and eight passing touchdowns for Tua. Houston has several injuries on defense, including their starting safety, Jalen Pitre, which will allow the Dolphins' pass game to shine.
Digging into the bargain bin, I like Bryce Young ($5,300) against the Cowboys. Carolina is favored in this game, and I expect the former Heisman winner to drop back 30+ times as he’s done in three straight games. The return of Adam Theilen has boosted Young’s production. Last week, Young would’ve had two touchdowns versus a stingy Eagles defense, but his receiver dropped the pass in the endzone. I like Young to throw for 300 and two scores while also giving us 30 yards rushing.
RUNNING BACK
I don’t like paying top-shelf pricing for anything. Typically, it doesn't come through if we’re talking running backs or we have cheaper options. But, boy, I love the Derrick Henry play at $8300 this week. I can’t find any way for the Giants to contain Henry in a game where the Giants' defense is going to be on the field a ton and have to tackle a human freight train. New York gets run on by every one of late. Five backs have topped 100 yards on them thus far. There’s no reason to believe Henry won’t either. It’s just a very lofty price to pay.
Give me both running backs in the Carolina vs Dallas game. Chuba Hubbard ($6500) is coming off a 30-touch week. His counterpart, Rico Dowdle ($6100), handled the ball 19 times on Monday night. These are two bottom-seven defenses against the run, and it helps that both backs can chip in as receiving options. It wouldn’t shock me if a lineup with both backs in the same game cashed.
If history can repeat itself, we should be all over Rhamondre Stevenson ($5900) against the Arizona Cardinals. Just a week ago, Zach Charbonnet ran for 134 yards and two touchdowns on this same defense. If we can get half of that production from Stevenson, it’ll be a win.
Two low-end shot-in-the-dark plays are Sean Tucker ($4300) playing the Chargers potentially without Bucky Irving and Kendre Miller ($4500) against Washington. Both need to score to come through, but I can definitely see paths for each to get ten touches. At this price, it’s not bad in a tournament so you can pay elsewhere.
WIDE RECEIVER
Of the very pricey receivers, I feel Tyreek Hill ($7400) is the best bet to hit against Houston. Miami is back to slinging the rock, and Hill has returned to his All-Pro form. Hill has scored in back-to-back games while seeing 23 targets. Sunday, he battles a Houston secondary that is missing its best safety. Outside receivers are doing whatever they want against the Texans. I don’t think Derek Stingley is going to slow down Tyreek one bit. If anything, his name value could scare ownership off Hill.
Ladd McConkey ($6300) needs to be in everyone’s lineup on Sunday. He’s had over 115 yards in two of his last three contests. He’s being peppered with targets, 27 in that timeframe. Oh, he’s also playing the Bucs, which can’t guard a stop sign. Tampa is getting smoked by opposing slot receivers as well. Per Fantasy Points Data, Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most receptions to receivers lined up in the slot.
Give me some Xavier Worthy ($5100) this week against Cleveland. We’ve seen the rookie targeted at least six times in his past three games. That’s a target share that leads the Chiefs receivers. He’s also getting an opportunity to run the ball in most games. The Browns can be had deep. Just ask Marvin Mims, who smoked this secondary in Week 13 for 105 yards. I like Worthy to catch a bomb for a score on Sunday.
TIGHT END
I don’t like any of the higher-priced options this week. For my money, I want to live in the Zach Ertz ($4000) and Pat Freiermuth ($3900) tier. Both players are likely first or second reads for their respective teams this week. Ertz has amassed 29 targets in his last four games. Freiermuth will see an Eagles defense that has given up a touchdown to a tight end in three straight.
If you’re bargain shopping, let me introduce you to Stone Smartt ($2600). He’s going to be a popular play for those looking to save money. In relief of Will Dissly last week, the Chargers tight end caught all three of his targets on Sunday. I’d expect him to see five balls or more on Sunday afternoon.
DEFENSE
There are great options if you want to pay for them at the top of the list. The Ravens ($3900) are a nice play against Tommy DeVito and the Giants. I also like the Commanders ($3400) at the Saints.
I can tell a good story about a pair of $3000 defenses coming through in the Cardinals and Jets. If I’m saving cash, my play would be the Dolphins at $2500 against a very leaky Texans offensive line.