Numbers prove just how unfair the coin toss rule is during OT in NFL playoffs
As the dust settled on a contest for the ages between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, the coin toss rule was what dominated the post-game discussions. It's a shame when instead of talking about the epic nature of the Divisional Round encounter, fans are left discussing whether this aspect of the NFL rulebook is appropriate or not.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen served up a treat for NFL fans, with the lead changing three times and 25 points scored as neither offense was stopped in the final two minutes. With such dominant attacks on both sides of the equation, the thought immediately shifted to the coin toss rule. The moment the game-tying field goal was scored at the end of regulation time by the Kansas City Chiefs, reality began to sink in.
3 lead changes in the final 2 mins alone β¦. #Bills #Chiefs https://t.co/4N3Dcm50iI
Because it was more or less a certainty that the team who won the coin toss would most probably march down the field and score a touchdown on their first drive. Which is precisely what the Kansas City Chiefs did. But how much of a certainty is it that the coin toss gives a clear advantage? Well, the numbers do lend themselves to backing up the claims of the rules' inherent unfairness.
Coin toss rule skews the playing field
The coin toss rule makes sense in the regular season, where teams are more evenly balanced in terms of their offense and defense. But in playoff situations, where most teams have dominated offensively all season, the rules make a mockery of giving both sides a fair chance.
How much of an advantage is winning the πͺ toss in overtime? Via @NFLResearchβ¦ π§π§π§ https://t.co/JgSyognPLK
In the regular season, 163 overtime games have been played under the current rules. The team that won the coin toss has gone on to win 86 times, with only 67 victories for those going second, with 10 resulting in a tie. Even here, there is a bias that favors the team going first.
But the coin toss rule is a curse for the team who are in line to get the ball second in overtime. The Kansas City Chiefs fell on the same sword in the 2019 AFC Championship game against the New England Patriots. In fact, of the 11 games played, teams going first have won 10 games and 7 scored a touchdown on the opening drive. The only team to have lost during that stretch was the New Orleans Saints in 2018.
If the results are this skewed, it makes sense to revisit the current coin toss rule. The idea should be that both teams are allowed to get a hold of the ball the same amount of times. This would at least prevent a single offensive play winning the game, instead both teams' defenses would have a role to play in the outcome.
In fact, the onus would be on the defense to come up with a big play to stop the opposition. The defense would be motivated by the fact that they could give their offense a chance to win the game on the very next drive.