One burning question for each AFC West team ahead of the 2024 season: Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders & Chargers in focus
It's time to look at the AFC West, home of the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. We're moving along division by division, trying to answer one pivotal question for each team and with the NFC complete, the AFC is up. Let's take a look at the AFC West:
One burning question for each AFC West team
#1, Denver Broncos
Can their young pass-rushers become real difference-makers this season?
On the surface, this Broncos' offense is where we’ll see major changes now that they unloaded Russell Wilson. Head coach Sean Payton hand-picked his quarterback of the future in Bo Nix 12th overall in the draft, along with bringing in his favorite target at Oregon at the top of day three with Troy Franklin.
They’ll have a new starter at center and also re-stocked the backfield a little bit. With that being said, watching Payton engage in “lively discussion” with Russ on the sideline and how public that broken marriage was, took the spotlight off their defense.
Through the first month plus of the season, this D was on pace for the worst marks in DVOA, EPA per play and points per game allowed. They did ultimately save face a little bit, taking advantage of a poor stretch of quarterbacks towards the end of the year, climbing up to somewhere between 25th and 30th in those categories just mentioned.
A big reason for their struggles under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was their inability to stop the run on early downs and they surrendered an NFL-worst five yards per carry. This was highlighted by the Dolphins gashing them for 350 yards on the ground and putting a 70-burger on them in week three, as the perfect storm between disadvantageous alignments and fading effort.
What’s connected to that however is their opponents not even needing third down a lot of times – being tied for a league-low 202 such situations against them – and their pass-rush not getting home. Denver finished 29th with a pressure rate of just above 18% for the season.
There is reason for optimism, however, as Jonathan Cooper and Nik Bonitto combined for 102 QB pressures on just under 700 total rush opportunities between the two. The latter I considered as more of a designated option for longer downs.
So who they really need to emerge in the final year of his rookie deal is Baron Browning. Browning had flashes of dominance in 2022 and quietly racked up nearly identical numbers this past season on about 40 fewer chances, despite returning from a torn meniscus for the final ten contests. Whether that young trio and third-round rookie Jonah Elliss can take advantage of defined dropback settings will determine if this can once again be an above-average unit.
#2, Kansas City Chiefs
What does the offensive tackle situation look like by Week 1?
Sure, we can wonder if one of their young corners like Joshua Williams can step up after trading L’Jarius Sneed to Tennessee. Or whether last year’s first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah can become a bigger part of the rotation, while Charles Omenihu is recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in the AFC Championship game.
Regardless, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has earned so much trust in the way he’s brought along players early in their careers. He has consistently been able to figure out how to make the pieces fit together, along with the game plans he constructs to give opposing teams fits, so I’m going to just give him the benefit of the doubt, to at least be a top-ten unit once again.
The offense is actually where concerns appear much more valid, considering the volatility of their receiving options and in particular the tackle situation. Hollywood Brown will need to provide a more consistent floor for them and first-round pick Xavier Worthy will probably serve a significant role at 165 pounds and record-breaking speed – especially if Rashee Rice continues to sink his career.
Yet, with the way Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce heated up during their playoff run and how strong that interior three on the O-line is, it’s tough to bet against them. The two spots to either end of that wall to supposedly protect Pat, however, certainly bring up questions.
Last offseason, they made Jawaan Taylor one of the highest-paid right tackles in the NFL. Yet, he repaid them by his 20 penalties accepted being eight more than any other player across the league and the worst PFF grade of his career. Meanwhile, long-time veteran Donovan Smith was able to cut down the number of flags against him a little bit and did step up in the postseason, but through 17 weeks also put up his personal worst mark in grading.
He’s still on the open market, pushing either Wanya Morris in year two – who started four games as a rookie and surrendered a pressure on about every 10th pass-pro snap – or mid-day two pick Kingsley Suamataia – who I believe has a ways to go, adjusting to pro rushers – into the starting lineup. They could be prime candidates to once more sign a veteran during the summer.
#3, Las Vegas Raiders
What happens if neither Gardner Minshew nor Aidan O’Connell are functional starting quarterbacks?
There seem to be far more quarterback questions for the AFC side of things here, but that’s probably a representation of the quality of the top-end guys across the conference.
This makes a situation like the Raiders' that much more glaring – especially if you’re competing with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in your division and the Broncos at least got the final of six quarterbacks in the draft, just before the Silver and Black went on the clock.
There were plenty of rumors about them trading up to as high as pick number two and possibly reuniting now full-time head coach Antonio Pierce with Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels (from LSU). Instead, they stuck at 13th overall and surprisingly added another weapon in flex tight-end/H-back Brock Bowers out of Georgia.
He combines with the guy they selected in the second round at the same position theoretically in Michael Mayer, along with veteran wide receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. They put some good faith in third-year running back Zamir White to take on the lead role left behind by Josh Jacobs, and we’ll see how well the other young linemen they brought in can hold down a questionable right side of the O-line.
However, as we look at the 10 names around the quarterback position, many other guys across the NFL would love to be in that situation. Still, Las Vegas is relying on Gardner Minshew on the fourth team in his six years as a pro and second-year man Aidan O’Connell, who outside of that no-show of the Chargers in a Thursday Night game, helped his group more when he was relied upon less.
What happens if they’re just rotating guys through and can’t ever get consistent play out of them? Is there a window to trade for Kirk Cousins, if Atlanta does want to get their rookie QB on the field? Does Pierce survive them tanking towards the end of the year, despite the money they’ve devoted to veterans?
#4, Los Angeles Chargers
Who does DC Jesse Minter identify as long-term pieces and how quickly does he mold the unit in his vision?
Finally, we’ll shift the focus back to the defensive side, as the way this offense is being run may be more relevant for success in 2024. There’s an inherent disconnect between paying your quarterback $52.5 million annually and constructing an offense around him via new HC Jim Harbaugh’s vision (which will be rooted in smothering your opponents with a heavy dose of the power run game).
I do believe that condensing the formation and allowing Justin Herbert to push the ball down the field is a more viable strategy than spreading things out and putting pressure on their receivers to constantly get it right. This is essential with them moving on from both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
It’ll be crucial to calibrate that offensive formula the right way throughout the season. The viability of this organization’s chances to ultimately compete with the Chiefs for the AFC West crown may be tied even more so to what this roster looks like defensively going forward.
Contrary to some reports out there, they did bring back both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the edge, who have the two highest cap hits of any Chargers this year, at nearly 52 million dollars combined. They were fine with taking smaller dead cap hits from veteran D-tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day and linebacker Eric Kendricks.
However, along with paying nearly 21 million for cornerback J.C. Jackson, who even this previous regime acknowledged as a massive failed investment. As good as Derwin James may be, when was the last time he’s taken over a game or won a matchup against Travis Kelce when they’ve asked him to lock in on him? Does this justify paying him a total of 48.5 million bucks over the next two years?
They drafted the green dot of that Wolverine defense for Jesse Minter in third-round linebacker Junior Colson. They got Alabama’s versatile D-linemen Justin Eboigbe in the fourth to boost the run defense and a couple of corners in the fifth round. They should have motivation to get those rookies on the field fairly early and I’m interested in how much they turn around the roster on that side of the ball next offseason.