NFL DFS picks: Justin Herbert and other players who are overpriced for Week 8
DFS players will have better options for NFL Week 8 now that the bye week-alypse is over. The Buffalo Bills, the Dallas Cowboys, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Minnesota Vikings and the Pittsburgh Steelers are all back on the slate. As teams resume jockeying for playoff positions and salvaging their seasons, many values as well as DFS plays that may be overpriced are available.
The following players may be too high a price to pay for their expected DFS outcome:
5 DFS players who are overpriced for Week 8
#1 - Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,300 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel)
Coming off a bye and facing the New England Patriots’ top defense, Herbert is overpriced for the week. The Chargers are not huge favorites, but the game could be tight with either side finding it hard to score. Look for Justin Herbert to perform decently, but not enough to justify his DFS price point, while cheaper, better values are out there like quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz.
JUSTIN HERBERT I LOVE YOUR WORK !!!! https://t.co/PROhz6OQ0h
#2 - Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints ($8,700 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel)
Alvin Kamara turned in a fantasy-relevant week last week (in fact, he was the only player other than wide receiver DK Metcalf who was fantasy relevant in the New Orleans Saints/Seattle Seahawks game). The weather and Jameis Winston constantly checking the ball to him were huge factors for the insane volume and usage rate. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' top run defense, expect that to change. The Buccaneers gave up rushing yards to running back Khalil Herbert and the Chicago Bears, but that game might be an outlier in terms of how successful teams can run on the Buccaneers. Expect Kamara to have little success on the ground and moderate success in the air if Winston looks his way in the flat. Unless he scores 2+ touchdowns with double digit receptions, Kamara is not worth the high DFS price point against a defense that will certainly sell out to try to stop him.
#3 - Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,500 DraftKings | $9,000 FanDuel)
Najee Harris might be appropriately priced on DK, but $9,000 on FD should give you a bit of a pause, especially against the capable Browns defense. He will get the running back volume work for sure, but at that price, he will have to find the endzone more than once. Touchdowns are possible, but as always, it’s not the most consistent DFS stat that’ll stick week-to-week (unless you’re Emmitt Smith, Derrick Henry or Cooper Kupp).
Top 5 players that have the highest % of their team's total scrimmage yards this season:
1) Derrick Henry: 36.1%
2) Najee Harris: 31.6%
3) Alvin Kamara: 31.4% (entering MNF)
4) Deebo Samuel: 30.7%
5) Jonathan Taylor: 30.3%
(the only 5 players above 30% this season) https://t.co/DwFw2bWCYP
#4 - Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,700 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel)
Mike Williams is in the middle of a career year, but the talented wide receiver is still a boom-or-bust DFS player (although less so this season). He’s had 3 smash games in Weeks 1, 2 and 5 compared to two dud games in Weeks 3 and 6. Coming off a bye, his minor knee injury should be behind him, but look for the New England Patriots to bottle up Williams and his quarterback Justin Herbert, which makes his high DFS price point a risky play.
#5 - DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers ($7,200 DraftKings | $7,700 FanDuel)
The Carolina Panthers started off strong, but the absence of star running back Christian McCaffrey has the offense looking lost and unproductive. Moore’s value is only as good as quarterback Sam Darnold’s competency. Although Darnold was benched late in the game last week against the New York Giants, expect him to start this week and struggle without McCaffrey against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons do not have the strongest defense, but Moore’s high DFS price does not justify the potential production. Despite consistently leading the wide receiver room in targets, those targets have not translated into better yardage or TD scores. There are better value matchups for the week other than DJ Moore, such as wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Pittman Jr.