AFC Power Rankings: which AFC teams are heading for the playoffs?
The biggest question in the AFC is: can anybody stop the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs?
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have led the Chiefs to AFC titles in back-to-back seasons, and they are searching for a three-peat that has only ever been achieved by Don Shula’s Miami Dolphins, Jim Kelly's Buffalo Bills, and the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots.
Which teams are primed to knock the Chiefs off their mantle? Which teams will be planning for 2022 sooner rather than later? Below, we go through our AFC Power Rankings heading into Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.
Who makes the playoffs? Ranking AFC from 16 to 1
#16 – Houston Texans
It could be a long season for first-time NFL head coach David Culley. JJ Watt’s exit capped a huge amount of player turnover with almost all of the Texans' playmakers either traded or released in recent years. Deshaun Watson is set to watch quarterback Tyrod Taylor from the sidelines. The playoffs seem like a long shot.
#15 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence’s arrival could signal the beginning of a major shift in Jacksonville, but the number one pick will need more tools around him before the Jaguars become a genuine threat. Their young defense has a lot of potential, so progress on both sides of the ball is important under Urban Meyer.
#14 – Cincinatti Bengals
Joe Burrow only made it through nine full games before an ACL tear halted his rookie season. The Bengals will need to offer better protection for the second-year quarterback to deliver on the hype. Jessie Bates was a breakout star on defense in 2020, but a loaded division may leave Zac Taylor’s team short of a playoff chase.
#13 – New York Jets
The Zach Wilson experience has arrived, and the Jets could be better placed at quarterback than division rivals New England and Miami. But new head coach Robert Salah needs to work wonders to improve one of the conference’s weakest defenses and break a decade-long playoff drought.
#12 – Las Vegas Raiders
Playing in such a strong division does not set the Las Vegas Raiders up for easy success. Realistically, head coach Jon Gruden needs to coax improved production from quarterback Derek Carr and better defensive play from coordinator Gus Bradley’s group to improve on last season’s 8-8 record and reach the playoffs.
#11 – Miami Dolphins
Head coach Brian Flores worked wonders to claim a 10-6 record last season. With Ryan Fitzpatrick out the door, it’s now over to sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to lead the team into the playoffs. A defense led by star corner Xavien Howard should set the team up for a playoff run, but the offense needs to deliver.
#10 – Indianapolis Colts
Head coach Frank Reich and quarterback Carson Wentz worked magic in Philadelphia and their chances of a playoff berth in 2020. This year will depend on how much of that they can recreate. A strong running game and solid defense gives them a chance of reaching the post-season if Wentz hits vintage form.
#9 – New England Patriots
It’s a new era for the Patriots, with the 15th overall draft pick Mac Jones under center, but expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to lean heavily on the running game. Head coach Bill Belichick welcomes back a host of 2020 opt-outs, including defensive leader Dont'a Hightower, and they should be in the playoff mix.
#8 – Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos' chances of making the playoffs in a competitive AFC West hinges on Teddy Bridgewater’s ability to produce above-average quarterback play. Drew Lock is ready to step up in relief. The rest of the roster is stacked, especially at wide receiver and a pass rush featuring Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. Quarterback production levels may leave Vic Fangio’s team on the playoff bubble.
#7 – Los Angeles Chargers
Offensive rookie of the year Justin Herbert wowed the NFL in his debut 2020 season, throwing for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns, and there is no reason he cannot keep getting better. New head coach Brandon Staley will need to bring the expertise he gained as Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator to fix the Bolts’ defense. The return of star safety Derwin James could be key in the playoff race.
#6 – Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is once again expected to play a starring role in the passing and running game, but the offense has taken a dent with the loss of first-round halfback J.K. Dobbins to an ACL tear. Injuries at wide receiver have caused a few early concerns, but the strength in depth of their roster and in their coaching staff, means John Harbaugh’s side should be preparing for January football.
#5 – Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers have rallied around quarterback Ben Roethlisberger heading into his 18th NFL season, drafting offensive players with their first four picks, including first-round halfback Najee Harris. T.J. Watt may be ready to take another leap. Mike Tomlin’s side went 12-4 last season, but will need to find another gear to win the AFC North and get home advantage in the playoffs again.
#4 – Cleveland Browns
Winning 11 games in 2020 showed that Kevin Stefanski’s Browns had turned the page and found a successful formula. Their running game offers the best one-two punch in football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while Myles Garrett is a dominant force on defense. The secondary needs to improve and QB Baker Mayfield has to reach another level for the Browns to contend in the playoffs.
#3 – Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans get the edge on the Browns essentially because of more consistent play at the quarterback position. Ryan Tannehill performed as a top-five passer last season, while monster runner Derrick Henry crashed through the 2,000 yard marker. Their offense could go to the next level after adding Julio Jones, but their defense needs to step up to make a bigger mark in the playoffs.
#2 – Buffalo Bills
Boasting the NFL’s most dangerous dual-threat quarterback in Josh Allen, the Bills will be back to stamp their mark in the AFC East. While breaking the Patriots’ 11-year dominance in the division, Sean McDermott’s side proved their elite ability on both sides of the ball. Stefan Diggs is a top receiver and the Bills’ defense is deep and loaded. How to stop the Chiefs in the playoffs is their biggest dilemma.
#1 – Kansas City Chiefs
The most dynamic offense in the NFL is almost impossible to slow down. So long as Patrick Mahomes stays healthy, the Chiefs should be the leading contenders again in 2021. Chris Jones could also be a defensive player of the year contender. The only real question mark hangs over the newly assembled offensive line, and how quickly they can familiarize themselves with a relentless pass-heavy offense.