NFL power rankings after Week 4: Eagles soar to the top as Panthers spiral
Last week, we had a look at the top five college players in each position a month into the season. It's time to do the same for the NFL, but from a team perspective, ranking them from No. 1 all the way to 32.
Due to the addition of a 17th game last season, the quarter-pole isn’t quite exact, but this is still a great time to take stock of what we’ve seen so far. These rankings are based on film study, putting performances into context and using advanced statistics to support each case.
So teams with worse records or even those who have lost to others in their direct matchups may be ranked higher than others.
On that note, let's dive into the power rankings after the first quarter of the season:
#1 Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
In a three-team race at the top, the Eagles, the only unbeaten team in the league, are probably the most complete and healthiest among them. They don’t have a superhuman at quarterback like the Bills and the Chiefs, but Jalen Hurts is playing at as high a level as he’s ever done.
He's been ripping the ball over the middle of the field to A.J. Brown with confidence and lofting it down the field to DeVonta Smith, as well as putting the touch on the ball for Dallas Goedert on crossing routes and killing teams with his legs.
Combine that with the fifth-ranked rushing attack (165.3 yards per game) and a defense that has already shown an ability to change things up a little bit from what coordinator Jonathan Gannon put on display last year and the result is a 4-0 start to the season.
They are currently third in yards allowed per play (4.5) and DVOA (-24.8), tied for first in takeaways (10) and alone at the top in sacks (16) and pressure rate (33.3%). Plus, their turnover differential of +8 is also three better than the next-closest group.
#2 Buffalo Bills (3-1)
The order of number two and three wasn’t easy to decide, but I ultimately settled on my pick for the Super Bowl, the Buffalo Bills.
I was initially concerned about Buffalo’s health, particularly on the offensive line and the secondary, but the front-five was back in full health in Baltimore. While the loss of Micah Hyde is big, they’ve been able to put that inexperienced back-end defensively in position to succeed.
When you look at their schedule, they blew out the reigning Super Bowl champs and top-seeded AFC team from last year by a combined score of 72-17, more than doubled the Dolphins' offensive yardage and simply needed two more seconds to kick a game-winning field goal. Moreover, they found a way to come back from 17 down at a tough place to win in Baltimore.
The Bills lead the league with 99 first downs gained and a third-down conversion percentage of 55.8%. Josh Allen is an absolute cheat-code, because he can carve teams up within the structure of plays, but then also create something out of nothing and run over a linebacker if needed; he’s gained 146 yards on 17 scrambles alone.
While the defense has been banged up, especially in the secondary, they’re still currently behind only the 49ers in yards per play (4.2) and DVOA (-28.0%), with Von Miller looking like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate again and one of the best units at rallying to the football.
#3 Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
At the core of the modern NFL, the three biggest questions you ask about a team are: Who is your quarterback? Can you protect him? And can you get after the guy on the opposing side?
Well, Patrick Mahomes showed once again on Sunday night that he can play at as high level as anybody has ever done in football. He put up 41 points against what was the top-ranked defense in DVOA in the Bucs, and he’s back to being No. 1 in EPA per play for the position.
He has only been sacked on 3.3% of his dropbacks (third-lowest in the league) and the offense overall is averaging a league-best 2.93 points per drive. KC’s defense has pressured the quarterback at a top-five rate in the league (28.9%), along with holding opponents to the fewest rushing yards per game (65.8) defensively.
The loss of Tyreek Hill has made them a little less of a vertical passing attack, but they’ve attacked the middle of the field and spread the ball around more, with a league-high eight different players having scored touchdowns already.
They could have easily been 4-0, if not for a couple of messed up field goal tries and a personal foul on Chris Jones extending a drive at Indianapolis.
#4 Green Bay Packers (3-1)
There is certainly a drop-off after the top three, even though the Packers are 3-1. There just hasn't been anything that's really stood out about this team. They are 10th in offensive yards per play and tied for 17th on defense in that regard.
The defense is top-seven in total yards and points respectively, but outside of holding the Bucs to just 34 rushing yards, they’ve allowed their other three opponents to average 157.7 yards on the ground.
Defensive coordinator Joe Barry has shown a lack of willingness to adapt from his scheme and take full advantage of his personnel. This is certainly a different style of offense that we’ve seen in the past with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, as they’ve use a lot of pony personnel (two true halfbacks) and leaned even more heavily on the RPO and quick game.
Aaron Jones is averaging a league-best 6.8 yards per carry and Rodgers has managed games exceptionally well. But you have to question how well this style can hold up in more high-scoring affairs or negative game-scripts, with a reliance on 11-year veteran Randall Cobb to convert third downs.