Ranking NFL teams by likelihood of going from worst to first in 2023:
A good month away from the 2023 NFL season, I decided to rank the eight teams that finished fourth inside their division by likelihood of going from worst to first.
The 8 NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first
1. Atlanta Falcons
If Desmond Ridder is at least an average distributor-type quarterback, they have the skill-position weapons to complement one of the premiere rushing attacks in the NFL under Arthur Smith. They've invested major financial and draft resources into the defense, with versatile veterans on the D-line and all five starters in the secondary being top-40 NFL picks.
2. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns basically addressed every single question mark this offseason. They are now fielding one of the deepest wide receiver corps. They have a couple of massive nose-tackles to keep the linebacker level clean and have attacked the edge position across from Myles Garrett via multiple avenues. Deshaun Watson just needs to be up somewhere between his Texans and 2022 version.
3. New York Jets
This New York Jets defense brings back 10 of 11 starters, after finishing last season top-six in DVOA, EPA per play, yards and points allowed. On offense, they bring back two top-20 picks, the guy who was on pace to win the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year in Breece Hall and the actual winner in Garrett Wilson. Most importantly, they go from bottom-three quarterback play to Aaron Rodgers, who won league MVP in two of the last three years.
4. Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders were a .500 team in the league's strongest division last year, despite starting three different quarterbacks, and the one who looked the best (Sam Howell) didn't get into the lineup until Week 18. Now Sam Howell gets a full offseason as "the guy." Jahan Dotson looked like a star when healthy as a rookie, and Chase Young enters a huge year as a former number two overall pick. Jack Del Rio's coaching staff needs to win now.
5. Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos offense can't look much worse than they did in 2022. Sean Payton brings structure and order to this unit, with Javonte Williams coming back from injury, a more diverse pass-catching group and two veterans added to the O-line. Defensively, they're making a major schematic transition to DC Vance Joseph, but still feature much of the personnel that has made them one of the most effective units when given some support.
6. Chicago Bears
Justin Fields became one of the most dangerous rushing threats in the NFL last season. Now he could take a major step as a passer, entering year two in Luke Getsy's system with a vastly improved receiving corp and a top-10 pick at right tackle. Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards present the most-improved linebacker unit this offseason, and Eddie Jackson is the only starter in the secondary drafted past round two.
7. Houston Texans
This isn't going to be a quick fix, but DeMeco Ryans is returning to Houston with a clear plan in mind. With the number two and three overall draft picks in C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson, respectively, they've put cornerstones on either side of the ball in place, while having surrounded their young quarterback with the infrastructure to find success early, and Jimmie Ward is coming along from San Francisco to show a young defense the way.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Things are looking pretty bleek right now in Arizona. This is probably the worst roster in the NFL today, and we don't know when Kyler Murray will be back. However, they're currently projected to have two top-five draft picks and six total selections inside the top-75 in 2024, with multiple quarterback-hungry teams potentially looking to trade them even more resources. Meanwhile, their young talent gets a chance to play this year.
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