Predicting the entire 2022 NFL season
The 2022 NFL season kickoff game between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams is almost here. This means it’s time for to once again predict the entire year, presenting the playoff picture and projecting who will square off in Super Bowl LVII.
To determine playoff seeding, I had to go a step further and yet again predict all 272 games, work through tiebreakers and figure out exactly how these teams stack up and then put them in order. That way, I could ultimately pick my winners for each matchup, leading up to the eventual NFC and AFC representatives in the big game at the end of the season in Arizona.
The Excel sheet with every single game picked is at the very bottom, if you’re interested.
Here’s how I believe things will shake out:
NFL playoff picture - NFC conference
#1. Los Angeles Rams, NFC West
We have a tie at the top of the NFC table. Unlike some of the implications in the other conference, the Los Angeles Rams winning that direct matchup at Tampa Bay in week nine made it fairly easy to determine who earned the first-round bye. The reigning Super Bowl champions did lose/give up some familiar faces, with Andrew Whitworth retiring, then not being able to pay up for Von Miller and Odel Beckham Jr. still currently out there on the open market whilst recovering from a torn ACL.
Yet, they could arguably be a more complete team. Allen Robinson has a chance to revitalize his NFL career, Cam Akers is back healthy (to provide some balance with the running game), a linebacker level that won’t be attacked as regularly anymore in coverage. We could see some more prevalent pieces of the pass-rush, with Bobby Wagner coming in, plus they enter their second NFL season under DC Raheem Morris.
Another one for the Los Angeles #Rams and Matthew Stafford. This time he finds Cooper Kupp for the 70-yard strike
#RamsHouse #Touchdown https://t.co/bb9Gd9i7Ke
If Matt Stafford can cut down on his interceptions a little bit (tied for the NFL-lead with 17 in 2021), while staying close to his explosive per-attempt numbers (third-highest at 8.1), this team could be even better.
#2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFC South
Right there with L.A. is the team that they knocked out of the postseason earlier this year in the Wildcard Round (although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers certainly made them sweat in the second half by erasing a three-touchdown deficit). Tom Brady's un-retirement led to several key contributors staying in-house. They signed veterans hungry for a ring (such as Akiem Hicks and Julio Jones) and the front-office pulled off a crazy deal to acquire a Pro Bowl-level guard in Shaq Mason. Their squad is loaded once again.
The multitude of injuries along the interior of the O-line recently is my one major concern, but otherwise there’s not much to complain about. The defense should be better on paper, and with Chris Godwin set to be a ready for Week 1, they are deeper at wide receiver. Brady led the league in explosive pass plays (75) and was pressured at the lowest rate last season (11.1%), while the run defense has been elite as long as Vita Vea has been healthy (making opponents one-dimensional).
#3. Philadelphia Eagles, NFC East
I’ve been a huge fan of what the Philadelphia Eagles have done this offseason, pretty much every step of the way. They traded for a true alpha receiver in A.J. Brown, added the two Georgia boys in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean (to strengthen the defensive front-seven) and of course re-signed some of their key contributors.
I already saw them as the favorites for the NFC East, comparing it to the losses the Cowboys have suffered. Then they really attacked the secondary, adding James Bradberry to a one-year deal (as soon as the Giants released him), signing Jaquiski Tartt at great value and most recently trading for one of the top nickels in the game from New Orleans in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.
2,715 rushing yards 💪
25 rushing touchdowns 💪💪
The best rushing team in franchise history 💪 💪 💪
#FlyEaglesFly https://t.co/YqGjmqdLeW
If that inclines DC Jonathan Gannon to be a little less conservative from a coverage-perspective, while the presence of A.J. Brown helps Jalen Hurts continue to develop as a passer, along with packing the league’s number one ground game (in total and yards per attempt), this should be a very complete squad.
#4. Green Bay Packers, NFC North
At this point, I kind of sound like a Green Bay Packers hater, expecting regression from their 13 wins for the third straight year now. But once again, I have some concerns as to why they could take a slight step back.
While I do understand that they didn’t have the financial resources to retain Davante Adams, not having the best receiver in the game (who has built up impeccable chemistry with Aaron Rodgers and is such a vital part of their passing attack due to his ability to quickly win off the line) will be a major transition. The O-line could definitely be stronger, with a couple of stalwarts back and depth added in the draft, which is why I expect them to lean even more into that two-headed rushing attack.
The #Packers may be without Aaron Rodgers vs the Chiefs but they will have Aaron Jones...
The last time Jones faced the Chiefs he finished with 226 total yards and 2 touchdowns.
Have faith. https://t.co/IfeyVvO28A
The defense should be one of the very best, adding a couple of guys from that historic Georgia defense to the front-seven, getting All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander back and being in the second season under coordinator Joe Berry. Yet again, their 6-2 record in one-score games (not counting a meaningless week 18 matchup) is bound to regress and because I have them losing at Philly, they end up with the fourth seed.
#5. San Francisco 49ers, NFC West
Is this San Francisco 49ers team clearly better than the one that went to the NFC Championship game last season? I have them winning one extra game in the regular season, but of course with Trey Lance at quarterback, we can’t truly know what kind of consistency can be expected from that position.
I had him as a breakout candidate for 2022 (but I also recognize that the whole operation isn’t super clean), although I see him making this a more dangerous squad. The overhauled O-line isn’t being talked about enough for one of the top rushing teams in the league, but I’ve liked what I’ve seen from the young guys.
They were the number one team in net yards per pass attempt last season (7.7), not because of Jimmy Garoppolo making big-time throws but rather the YAC skills of those skill-position players. Now we’ll see Trey Lance push the ball vertically outside the numbers. Defensively, they’ve replenished the depth up front. Adding Charvarius Ward as a feisty outside corner makes it really hard for opponents by squeezing down passing windows in zone coverage.
#6. New Orleans Saints, NFC South
Back in January/February, when the New Orleans Saints had just come short of somehow sneaking into the playoffs (with a combination of Jameis Winston and quarterbacks who aren’t even on the roster anymore), I didn’t believe we’d be back here. While we can question the resources spent on keeping them in win-now mode, there’s nothing in terms of the roster or – even without Sean Payton – the coaching staff that would make you believe they won’t be a pain in the ass.
Their defense allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt (3.7) and the fourth-fewest points per game (19.7) in the NFL last season and will bring back basically the same group other than swapping out their safety tandem. With Alvin Kamara’s legal situation pushed back now, Michael Thomas finally back healthy, a vertical element in rookie Chris Olave and hopefully a full 17 games from Winston (who went 5-2 as a starter in ’21), they have the offense to complement that.
#7. Minnesota Vikings, NFC North
I believe the Minnesota Vikings will improve in the 2022 NFL season. I want to see them open up the offense more, using 11 personnel at a higher rate and being more diverse in the running game. They have receivers capable of executing blocking assignments from tight sets, but then also creating challenges in the passing game when teams don’t give the group enough respect.
Similarly, the defense will transition to more modern split-safety principles and not be as vulnerable to scheme-beaters conceptually. If their new pieces in the secondary can quickly integrate themselves and Kirk Cousins can put a little more on his plate (after being one of the most efficient, but maybe not most challenging quarterbacks for defenses), this could be a dangerous group that we don’t pay enough attention to.
Just missed the cut: Dallas Cowboys (9-8) & Detroit Lions (8-9)