The biggest X-factors for each Conference Championship team Feat. Kansas City Chiefs, New Egland Patriots, Saints and Rams
Heading into Championship Sunday I looked at these two matchups and how things might play out. Instead of trying to preview one of them and pointing out schematic advantages and disadvantages like I did a week ago, I decided to present one X-factor for each team on offense and defense respectively. I believe these are truly the four best teams in the league when I combine players and coaching. There might have been more talented teams on paper, but when I look at these four head coaches and their staffs I think we are blessed with some of the very best play-callers and guys who excel at preparing their troops. So which players for each of them, who don’t usually play a primary role, could be key factors on Sunday?
Kansas City Chiefs:
Offense – Sammy Watkins
When Tyreek Hill is the only outside threat on the field, you can somewhat double him by simply putting a safety over the top on his side and then be aggressive at the line with him. You won’t be able to shut him down, but as far as the passing game goes you can limit him and there’s no other team more disciplined than New England against jet sweeps, reverses and all those gimmicks that Hill is so dangerous on. I don’t see how a Bill Belichick-coached team will allow one player to catch seven passes for 142 yards and three touchdowns. Neither do I see them play the amount of zero coverage they did against the Chargers because Kansas City has even more speed at the skill positions and they can’t sit on routes like they did against Philip Rivers, because Patrick Mahomes can throw the ball 50+ yards through the blasting wind. So what I think they will actually do in passing situations is roll their coverage towards Hill in zone and when they do decide to man up, I think they will ask their high safety to shade towards him and use a robber or hook defender to take away easy completions on dig and curl routes by Travis Kelce. Unlike most years New England has the personnel they can trust in man-coverage, but what separates them from most teams in the league is what they do with those two additional zone defenders, in how they use them in different situations. So if the Patriots decide to make the deep ball to Hill their main focus and bracket Kelce to some degree, all the pressure shifts to that number two receiver in Sammy Watkins. Can line Sammy up at any of the receiver positions. He can play X and win one-on-one matchups on the backside, clear space underneath for teammates with go-routes at Z or move inside and use quickness on stick and out-routes. Even though it wasn’t very successful last weekend, Andy Reid put the ball in his hands inside the five on a shovel pass and jet sweep on consecutive plays. That could be a setup for what’s to come in the AFC Championship game. Watkins can work in space on slants and post routes on the backside of those RPOs. Kansas City didn’t pay him an average salary of 16 million per year with 30 million guaranteed to keep him on the shelves. While he has been fighting through injuries for about half the year, in the eight games he has been on the field for at least 75 percent of the snaps, he caught an average of just under five passes for 64.5 yards. Unfortunately his worst of those outings came at Gillette stadium. However, despite snowy field conditions he looked his best versus the Colts since late October and he will look to make a mark in this one, as New England might have to pick their poison.
Defense – Derrick Nnadi
On the other side of the ball, the biggest question for KC’s defense will be “Can they stop New England’s power rushing attack?” Those guys run more 21 personnel I-formation plays than any other team in the league. The Chiefs come in with the 27th-ranked rush defense, but they are coming off their best performance of the year in that department. Indianapolis was averaging 129 rushing yards per game since Marlon Mack became the full-time starter in week six and they had just run all over Houston in the Wild Card round for 200 yards, but Kansas City held them to just 87 yards on the ground, thanks to in large part being able to keep those guys behind the chains with their work on early downs. I wasn’t really high on Derrick Nnadi coming out of the Florida State back in April because I thought he was a two-down run-stopper with little upside as a pass rusher, but exactly that role will be asked for on Sunday. Nnadi is the one guy on that Chiefs front who plays more of the role of a conventional run-stuffer, meaning standing his ground. The rest of their front-players like to get upfield and that can create openings due to how far they get vertically. Nnadi is mostly asked to take on double-teams and not allow movement at the point of attack, which helps the rest of his buddies to rally to the ball. When he does face single-coverage, he can go through the shoulder of his blocker and ride him into the backfield, especially in the zone game. He had a seven-yard TFL against the Colts on the back-side of an inside zone play.
Being able to stop the run on first and second down will be crucial for the Chiefs D, if they want to be able to get off the field. In their week six meeting the Patriots were 7 of 13 on third downs, with an average of 4.5 yards to go. When it was 3rd & 5 or longer they went one for six, including a strip-sack, while they were six of seven when the distance to go was at four or below. In the Divisional Round last Saturday the Chiefs didn’t allow the Colts to convert a single one of their third downs, with an average of 7.9 yards to go. Once Kansas City reaches obvious passing situations, their top three pass rushers Dee Ford, Justin Houston and Chris Jones can pin their ears back and get after Brady. Pro Football Focus gave that trio the highest pass rushing grade in the league with Ford leading all edge defenders in total pressure, Houston was one of just a few guys to win on more than 20 percent of his pass rush snaps and Jones only trailed Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt with 15.5 sacks on the year. The Chiefs like to move those guys around, such as putting Houston inside next to Ford or moving Jones to edge. However, their ability to get into situations where they can be creative with their sub-packages and focus on how they can make Brady uncomfortable inside the pocket will have a lot to do with how well they can hold up against Sony Michel and the Patriots oldschool rushing attack, which puts a guy like Nnadi at nose tackle in the spotlight.