NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first - the Detroit Lions
After spending months evaluating college prospects and talking about what each team did in the draft and their overall roster, it’s time to discuss their potential in the upcoming season.
We will look at all eight teams who finished last in their division in 2021, and rank them based on the likelihood of ascending to the top of those groups.
This exercise was a lot of fun, because it's enjoyable creating excitement for one franchise. It’s also good to think, to poke holes in rosters/coaching staff and lay out a path for why they may underachieve.
People spend so much time hyping up the top teams that they neglect those closer to the bottom of the league. Particularly in terms of the positives they have going for them.
Now let’s talk about the Detroit Lions and the NFC North:
Evaluating the NFC North
Considering the direction of the Lions under their current regime, the additions they’ve made and the uncertainty of the North, Detroit have a realistic shot at winning the division.
The main obstacle in their way is the Green Bay Packers, who have won the North eight times in the last 11 seasons. The Minnesota Vikings are a bit of an unknown in 2022 and the Chicago Bears could go one of two ways.
#1 The Green Bay Packers
The Packers will feature the NFL MVP in Aaron Rodgers. There's not really anything negative to say about him, although his critics certainly try. They should get a couple of starters back on the offensive line, and looking at the defensive depth chart, there are talented players top-to-bottom.
However, they did just lose one of the truly elite receivers in football; Davante Adams, a man Rodgers almost blindly trusted and repeatedly looked for in key situations. They replaced him with Sammy Watkins and draft picks Christian Watson from North Dakota State and Romeo Doubs from Nevada.
Davante Adams in Week 3, 2021 against the 49ers:
• 12 catches, 132 yards, 1 TD
Adams’ career stats vs. 49ers (5 games, including postseason):
• 48 catches, 618 yards, 5 TDs
Adams AVERAGES nearly 10 catches, 125 yards and a touchdown when he plays SF 🤯
#One7 #Packers https://t.co/fsMCsCbi1n
Not that those aren’t talented players, but Watkins hasn’t cracked 700 receiving yards since 2015. He never had more than flashes in the most explosive offense in the league with the Kansas City Chiefs and he’s missed 4.5 games since reaching that mark. The two draft picks showed inconsistency in college with drops and will both face major jumps in competition.
Let’s quickly note here that All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is still working with the rehab group one-and-a-half years after tearing his ACL. Green Bay’s defense had some excellent showings in 2021 and could be even better this year with some guys coming back. But we see major variance on that side of the ball every year, with career years for players at every level, and it’s very unlikely they’ll reproduce such a drastic turnover differential (third-best at +13).
The Packers also had the worst special teams unit last season, according to several metrics, so expect Rich Bisaccia and former Bears punter Pat O’Donnell to instantly turn that unit around.
#2 The Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota certainly have the pieces to make some noise this season, depending on the improvements their defense can make. They have top-five players at wide receiver with Justin Jefferson, running back Dalvin Cook and a more than competent quarterback in Kirk Cousins. They also have an adept defensive scheme to face modern offenses under Ed Donatell.
Your weekly Justin Jefferson highlight 💪
(via @NFL)
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Yet, although we haven’t seen them finish with less than seven wins since 2013, we have yet to witness Cousins being able to elevate this roster above mediocrity. This is illustrated perfectly by the fact that they finished last season dead-average in offensive, defensive and overall DVOA last season (16th).
Pro Football Focus had them as the 23rd-ranked offensive line, with the only addition being third-round guard Ed O’Neill from LSU, and the defense has seen some stalwarts either move on or regress. Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith are coming off their worst years in a while and Danielle Hunter is still medically a major question mark.
Looking at what they were able to do last season, five of their eight wins came against teams that picked or would have picked (without trades) inside the top 10 of the draft. But they’re now set with a second-place schedule. This sets them up for matchups with the New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts (rather than the Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars).
#3 Chicago Bears
The Bears arguably need a miracle to be considered a threat to win the division, considering they parted ways with basically their entire front-five, other than Robert Quinn. They let two starters on the offensive line and Allen Robinson go, largely based on cap numbers and the fact that they are entering a rebuild.
Considering that they had a negative point differential of -96 and might be worse in some areas, there isn't much positivity there. It will be exciting to see second-year quarterback Justin Fields develop, but the pieces around him are worse this season. They will rely on Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown and third-round pick Velus Jones Jr. to make plays in 2022.
We don’t want to talk down on Chicago here, but the front-office is telling you at which stage of their life cycle they are and it would be a shock if they don’t draft in the top-10 come next April.
Can the Detroit Lions win the NFC North in 2022?
Now we're excited to talk about the Lions, who are an interesting team. Looking at last season, the Lions lost nine games by 10 or fewer points. This is why Pro Football Reference had them at a projected 5.1 wins. Plus, they had the third-most average games lost due to injury in 2021, behind only the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets (122.4).
That included key players like running back D’Andre Swift, an All-Pro level center Frank Ragnow, Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson and Taylor Decker. The Lions also lost Jeffrey Okudah and even a couple of their kickers missed between five and 16 games.
The Lions' defense finished 29th in yards and 31st in points allowed respectively. But with the injuries they suffered and the variance we see on that side of the ball, this should improve in 2022. With the Lions slated to have between four and six new starters, we could see them make a quick jump under a defensive coordinator in Aaron Glenn. Glenn is probably on the shortlist for head coaching candidates in 2023.
Jared Goff will have to play his best season yet, but he’s in a situation where he has to overperform. It's a real 'prove it' year for the quarterback. He’ll need to take advantage of new weapons on the perimeter in veteran D.J. Chark and 12th overall draft pick Jameson Williams. This should open up room for those running backs, after already averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry in 2021.
The Lions need more than just a stingy defense, but we certainly like where they're heading. Though the Lions are not scheduled for a single primetime game in 2022, a lot of people will likely root for a group that is all pulling on one string.
Chance of winning the division: 15-20%
For the full list, make sure to visit the original piece.