The five biggest questions (and answers) for the 2022/23 NFL playoff race:
We’re just three weeks away from the regular season being wrapped up. As I went through the remaining schedule, there’s literally just one game left with zero playoff implications and two others that, by all likelihood, will have no impact at all. Therefore, I decided to break down a bunch of these different scenarios, by formulating five questions that are the most prevalent as it pertains to the ultimate playoff picture. From there, I will hand out my predictions for how I believe things will play out.
Once again, I want to thank playoffpredictors.com, for helping me not go completely insane as I went through this exercise, working through all the different possibilities and having to go down the steps of tie-breaking procedures, depending on two or three teams having the same record, etc.
I decided to not make a separate point for “who will earn the final Wild Card berth in the AFC”, since the Chargers have a playoff probability of about 80+ percent and the Ravens sit above 98% right now. So really it should be a three-headed race between the AFC East teams not named Buffalo. And since I don’t have much belief in the Patriots, this will most likely come down to the season finale between the Dolphins and Jets, as the latter would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with a win and same record ultimately. A paragraph was enough to cover this, and maybe I’ll do a full preview of that contest anyway, if things break the right way.
Now let’s get to my five actual questions:
Do we see a change at the top of either conference?
Now, the NFC is pretty much wrapped up, I would say, if nothing highly unforeseen happens. The Eagles would need to go 0-3, while the Cowboys would need to go 3-0, in order for a switch to take place at the top of the NFC East – and then Dallas would still need the 49ers to lose, at least, one game, in order to jump all the way to the top of the table. So really the question is, will San Francisco get a chance to capitalize on Philly collapsing? Because, once again, if they run the table and “the Birds” don’t win another contest, they’d hold the tie-breaker of a better in-conference record over the Cowboys. Either way, that seems very unlikely, considering that, after the rematch in Dallas, they get to host the Saints and Giants, while the Cowboys still travel to Tennessee and Washington in that order, while the Niners do have a good chance to take care of their business (vs. Washington, at Las Vegas and vs. Arizona), but, once again, they would need a lot of help. The Vikings are still part of this mix as well, although they’d also need to go 3-0 while the Eagles go 0-3, since Philly holds the head-to-head tie-breaker from back in Week Two.
With that being said, the AFC’s top seed is really still completely up in the air, I would argue. Other than the AFC South, where the Titans, at best, could win ten games, while Buffalo and Kansas City already sit at eleven (and would have the direct tie-breaker anyway). However, with those two all-around front-runners of the conference, the Bills hold the direct tie-breaker and really only one legit challenge still ahead, when the travel to Cincinnati in Week 17 (along with at Chicago and vs. New England). Meanwhile the Chiefs are home the next two weeks against the Seahawks and Broncos, before travelling to Las Vegas, where the Silver & Black, most likely, will only be able to play spoiler, since, even if they go 3-0 the rest of the way, would need plenty of help to somehow sneak into the Wild Card. For the Ravens, they’d need the Bills to lose their remaining three contests, and the Chiefs can’t win more than one game, if they even want an outside shot at the number one seed, by running the table themselves. However, the squad that is very much still in this race is the Bengals. They already have the direct tie-breaker over Kansas City and have a chance to earn the same over Buffalo in Week 17, before closing out with a home game against the Ravens, that will likely decide the AFC North. So at that point, if they take care of business, all they’d need is for the Chiefs to stumble once more (a tie would not be enough).
The two factors that could really make things interesting here is if Jalen Hurts misses the final three weeks with that shoulder sprain and Gardner Minshew can’t ride the ship against a pretty challenging lineup at Dallas this Sunday, before hosting the Saints and Giants. That would open the door for the 49ers, Vikings and Cowboys. On the AFC side of things, if the Bengals beat the Bills in Week 17, that now opens the door for them and the Chiefs to overtake the conference’s top seed. Then everything would most likely come down to Week 18, which would be really fun.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills (14-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
I believe both teams run the table, but the Bills remain at the top, thanks to the direct tie-breaker over Kansas City.