Evaluating the New York Giants' chances of winning the NFC East in 2022
After spending months evaluating college prospects and talking about what each team did in the draft and their overall roster, it’s time to discuss their potential in the upcoming season. We will look at all eight teams who finished last inside their division in 2021, and rank them based on the likelihood of ascending to the top of those groups.
This exercise was a lot of fun, because it's enjoyable creating excitement for one franchise. It’s also good to think, to poke holes in rosters/coaching staff and lay out a path for why they may underachieve.
People spend so much time hyping up the top teams that they neglect those closer to the bottom of the league. Particularly in terms of the positives they have going for them.
Now let’s talk about the New York Giants:
Evaluating the NFC East competition
First of all, you can never really predict what will happen in the NFC East. We haven’t had a repeat champion since the Philadelphia Eagles’ run between 2002 and ’04. They made it to three straight conference championships.
The Giants haven’t been kings of the East since making that magical Super Bowl run in 2011 and have lost their lone playoff contest since then. But with how tough this division has been to predict, you can’t rule anything out. Many doubt the Giants for a variety of reasons, but no team is perfect.
Now, let's poke some sizeable holes into those other three teams.
#1- The Dallas Cowboys
We have to start off with the reigning division champs in the Dallas Cowboys, coming off a 12-win campaign. In terms of stability, they’re retaining their head coach and all three coordinators. Dak Prescott shouldn’t have a period of where he’s still testing out the ankle, coming off surgery last year. They’re basically bringing back all but two starters on each side of the ball.
But we saw what happened in the Wildcard Round. There, they faced a well-coached team in the San Francisco 49ers, and they handled late-game situations very badly. We also saw their offense sputter while trying to put together drives against the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs last season. They both asked their defensive backs to challenge guys off the line and knew who to double in certain situations.
Only Mike McCarthy and the #DallasCowboys would call a QB draw with 0:14 left to end the season 🤬
https://t.co/5t0cV3vY7j
The Cowboys hold themselves back by letting Zeke touch the ball nearly 300 times, despite Tony Pollard averaging 1.7 yards more per touch. The way Kellen Moore can stretch defenses out is impressive, but there is some predictability with what they like to run based on formation and down-and-distance.
Their defense is another candidate to regress to the norm, particularly given the fact that they likely won’t be taking the ball away a league-high 34 times again. They don’t have a designated A-gap defender on their roster other than 178th overall pick John Ridgeway III from Arkansas. This is also why they only held opponents below 100 rushing yards once over their final 13 games. Their second-most effective pass-rusher in Randy Gregory pulled out of a contract with them late.
Thanks to where they finished, the Cowboys will face the three top-scoring offenses in the NFC.
#2- The Philadelphia Eagles
Of course, we have to address the other playoff team from this division too. The Eagles were able to win six of their seven games before week 18, when they sat many of their starters against the Cowboys, having clinched a Wild Card berth already.
They won those games by relying heavily on their run game and limiting big plays defensively, to not neutralize their control of the football. The addition of wide receiver A.J. Brown slides everybody in that room down one slot in the pecking order.
It's hard to believe that they’ll average 190 rushing yards again, as they did over their final ten games. Teams will be willing to rotate safeties down late and blitz the run on early downs, putting the ball back in Jalen Hurts’ hands. Hurts has progressed as a passer, but has still functioned best in a rather elementary approach of singular reads instead of dropping back and scanning the whole field.
The Eagles defense is pretty impressive up front, but the second level is largely dependent on the impact third-round pick Nakobe Dean can make right away. If totally healthy, Dean could turn out to be a huge steal, but him going this late is still pretty fishy. Without Rodney McLeod, that second safety spot is a major question mark. James Bradberry now being there could lead to us seeing more challenging man/quasi-man coverages.
But their philosophy last season of playing two-deep shells and keeping everybody in front of them could once again be picked apart by teams. Especially teams with patient quarterbacks who have solid protection. Teams completed a league-high 69.4 percent of passes against them and the Eagles were bottom-ten in third-down percentage.
#3- The Washington Commanders
And then let’s quickly address the Washington Commanders here. They were 7-10 last season and two of those losses came without Taylor Heinicke starting. There are other factors that can certainly lead you to believe they will be better in 2022.
Although Carson Wentz should be a slight upgrade under center, he has made too many big mistakes in crucial moments. You can't trust him to bring home games.
No. 17 on the field
No. 1 in our hearts https://t.co/tgX0iCS9Dm
Their defense was a huge disappointment last year, finishing in the bottom-ten in yards and points allowed, as well as 31st in third-down percentage. They are also very predictable schematically, and the middle of the field was where opponents killed them all year long.
They might have the exact same starting-11 again other than Landon Collins, who when used as a big nickel had their unit look its best. In their draft class the biggest impact may be coming from second-round pick Phidarian Mathis – another Alabama D-tackle. Mathis will either be a rotational piece up front or potentially a replacement (and be a downgrade) for Daron Payne, with some trade rumors around him.
Their play-calling on either side of the ball is suspect, and Ron Rivers hasn’t coached a team to a .500-or-better record since 2017.
Can the New York Giants win the NFC East in 2022?
So that finally brings us to the Giants. The Giants are scoffed at by many people around the league, but are arguably the best set-up since Ben McAdoo’s final full season as a coach in 2016.
It feels kind of arbitrary to try judging head coaches based on very limited information about what’s happening. But Joe Judge approving or deciding on third-and-long QB sneaks is a sign of not believing in your players. The coaching staff Brian Daboll has put together for the Giants is a major upgrade just from a play-calling perspective.
The Giants didn’t spend a lot of money in free agency. But they added a couple of underrated veterans to their offensive line and then selected the top two overall prospects on several people's draft boards. The first was Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeuax, who has the talent to become a true alpha pass-rusher. Second was Alabama’s Evan Neal, who is one of the premiere tackle prospects to come out in recent years.
With Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley in the final year of their contracts, they are in major prove-it spots. The Giants' offensive line looks completely different all of a sudden and they have a lot of versatile pieces on defense for Wink Martindale to play with.
It's hard to see the Giants taking the division, but with a little fortune and some confidence, anything can happen.
Chance of winning the division: 10%
For the full list, make sure to visit the original piece and feel free to check out a bunch of my other write-ups and videos!