Evaluating the Houston Texans' chances of winning the AFC South in 2022
After spending months evaluating college prospects and talking about what each team did in the draft and their overall roster, it’s time to discuss their potential in the upcoming season. We will look at all eight teams who finished last inside their division in 2021, and rank them based on the likelihood of ascending to the top of those groups.
This exercise was a lot of fun, because it's enjoyable creating excitement for one franchise. It’s also good to think, to poke holes in rosters/coaching staff and lay out a path for why they may underachieve.
People spend so much time hyping up the top teams that they neglect those closer to the bottom of the league. Particularly in terms of the positives they have going for them.
We are aware that the Jacksonville Jaguars selected first overall in the draft. But the Houston Texans have a lower projected win total this season, so we had a look at them.
Now let’s talk about the Texans:
Evaluating the AFC South competition
We’re really getting into the heavy lifting here, talking about a team here with just one player selected to the Pro Bowl and neither of the All-Pro teams over the last two years combined. This excludes Deshaun Watson, who’s obviously with the Cleveland Browns now and dealing with stuff far from the football field.
However, there are reasons to believe that the Texans won’t be 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense once again. More importantly, the team to win the AFC South may easily be a nine- or ten-win squad, even if it may have brought out the AFC's number one seed last year.
#1- The Tennessee Titans
We do have to start with the Tennessee Titans. It’s pretty bold to say a team that won 12 games in the regular season and beat the number two and three seeds respectively, will all of a sudden fall off and not repeat as division champs. Yet, the betting markets agree, with the Indianapolis Colts being the current favorites to win the South at two-to-one. You can currently get Tennessee at +170.
A large part of that is probably based on the sour taste Ryan Tannehill left with those three interceptions. They led the Titans to be one-and-done in the playoffs against the Cincinnati Bengals and there was a dip in his play.
Derrick Henry is coming off an injury and they need first-round pick Treylon Burks from Arkansas to instantly replace A.J. Brown. The defense probably won’t score four touchdowns themselves again in 2022.
The fact that Derrick Henry has a career 124.6 QB Rating (incl. postseason) makes him an actual cheat code @Titans
via @nfl
https://t.co/vob58iEmeE
The main reason things could fall apart quickly for this group, however, is how paper-thin their roster is. Particularly on defense. They have a lot of star-level players, but as you look at their projected depth chart, there aren't many positions where a proven replacement is behind the first-string. They are a couple of injuries away from playing a bunch of rookies, who are talented, but not necessarily ready to see in prominent roles year one.
#2- The Indianapolis Colts
The Colts probably deserve to be the favorites for the AFC South ahead of the campaign. There’s certainly reason to believe they would have won those two games at the end of last season and easily earned a playoff spot, after looking like one of the hotter teams in the NFL.
They will be a better side with Matt Ryan under center instead of Carson Wentz. Still, this is a new season and they need some guys to perform at a high level who are rather unproven at this point. On offense, the obvious thing is that they have replaced veterans with largely unproven players at left tackle and right guard. This is big for a team heavily reliant on the run game and their offensive line.
Defensively, former coordinator and now-Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus has been replaced by one of the least adaptable play-callers in Gus Bradley. The rules of averages would tell us they won’t come in just one takeaway short of the league-lead (33).
Personnel-wise, there are questions. For that second corner spot, they don’t have anybody with extended starting experience on the outside other than Stephon Gilmore and they have a lot of youth on the front-end. DeForest Buckner is obviously a premier interior defensive lineman and Grover Stewart is a nice complement to him. But Yannick Ngakoue hasn’t been able to make a difference unless he is the clear-cut number two edge rusher in any of the last three years.
Looking at that second defensive end spot, paired with the likely five other names on that front to make the roster, all of those guys combined for just 2,540 career NFL snaps.
#3- The Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have cause for excitement in 2022. The only way is up from picking number one overall in the draft in each of the last two years, but they severely overspent on good, not great players in free agency.
Most GP of 100+ YScm in a player's 1st 2 seasons in Jacksonville #Jaguars history:
1. James Robinson (11)
T2. Leonard Fournette & Fred Taylor (10)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew (9)
5. Allen Hurns (7) https://t.co/FeGd373i0R
Their best returning offensive player James Robinson suffered a torn Achilles back on December 26th and may miss half the season. While it’s very hard for this new coaching staff not to be a massive upgrade over the chaos Urban Meyer brought in, most don’t see them winning more than six games in 2022.
Can the Houston Texans win the AFC South in 2022?
The Texans may not look like a big prize in this discussion, but there’s reason to believe things are starting to turn around. Now that the massive boulder tied to their leg that was Deshaun Watson is gone, a few veterans are being brought in to re-invigorate the Texans.
This offseason, the Texans put together one of the best draft classes in franchise history. Naturally, the quarterback question will come up and Davis Mills might not be their long-term savior. However, not only will he put everything into retaining that spot, other than the Patriots’ Mac Jones, Mills performed at the most consistently high level of any rookie quarterback last season. Despite those five guys that were selected in the top-15.
To support him they traded back up into the top-50 of the draft for of the most pro-ready receiver in Alabama’s John Metchie III. They also added the most rugged run-blocking guard in Texas A&M’s Kenyon Green and the most hard-nosed runner available in Florida’s Dameon Pierce. Alongside veteran Marlon Mack in the backfield, they will turn around a rushing attack that finished 2022 last in total yards and yards per carry.
They brought back their only starter on the offensive line with a PFF grade above 60.0 (Justin Britt), with Laremy Tunsil now back from injury and both starting guards upgraded. Switching over to defense, they made additions in the secondary, particularly number three overall pick Derek Stingley Jr. from LSU, who could become a true shutdown corner in the NFL. The Texans now have the ability to be a lot more diverse around him in coverage.
Being tied for seventh in tackles for loss last season is a sign of the talent they have accumulated on the defensive line, which they’ve continued to add to. The Texans have time to gain some confidence, only facing two top-ten scoring offenses through their first 13 weeks. Houston did get blown off the field by the Colts twice, but they swept the Jaguars by a combined 30 points and they came just a field-goal short of doing so to the Titans as well.
The odds of the Texans winning the division are slight. But they could well surprise a lot of people and make a real push for a playoff spot and anything can happen in the NFL.
Chance of winning the division: 5-6%
For the full list, make sure to visit the original piece and feel free to check out a bunch of my other write-ups and videos!