Evaluating the New York Jets' chances of winning the AFC East in 2022
After spending months evaluating college prospects and talking about what each team did in the draft and their overall roster, it’s time to discuss their potential in the upcoming season. We will look at all eight teams who finished last inside their division in 2021, and rank them based on the likelihood of ascending to the top of those groups.
This exercise was a lot of fun, because it's enjoyable creating excitement for one franchise. It’s also good to think, to poke holes in rosters/coaching staff and lay out a path for why they may underachieve.
People spend so much time hyping up the top teams that they neglect those closer to the bottom of the league. Particularly in terms of the positives they have going for them.
Now let’s talk about how the New York Jets can win the AFC East:
Evaluating the AFC East competition
The Jets are one of the most exciting teams this upcoming season. It will be interesting to see what kind of jump they are able to make. Let’s not sugarcoat this, they were bad in 2021. Their defense ranked dead-last in yards and points allowed. Their young quarterback ranked bottom of the league in passer rating, QBR, EPA and a bunch of other analytics.
While both those things could turn around this upcoming season, the big issue is that they have the NFL’s best team inside their division. Still, there are a lot of things to like about this group and now let’s try to drag the others down.
#1 The Buffalo Bills
Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have done a tremendous job in putting together this roster. Josh Allen is capable of outdueling anybody in the league and has the weapons needed around him. The Buffalo Bills have one of the best constructed and well-organized defenses in the NFL.
However, for the purpose of this exercise, let's poke some holes in them. What are their weaknesses and areas where they could underperform? They did score 26 or more points in 13 of 17 games last season. But other than the snowstorm game against the New England Patriots, the other three games (16 points vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, six vs. Jacksonville Jaguars and 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts) all featured Josh Allen being very patient with zone coverage, and even when showing pressure, backing out of those.
Buffalo may have lost in the Divisional Round, but everybody saw the show they put up against Kansas City and will be studying that offense in depth. Teams will potentially be applying a similar strategy to the three teams mentioned above to try and stop them. Allen accounted for a third of their rushing total in 2021 and their play-selection was a bit one-dimensional. This may not be replicable.
Josh Allen is REALLY good at football #BillsMafia https://t.co/ndXD1dHsh7
Defensively, there’s very little to say about them in a negative sense, but perhaps how fluctuant that side of the ball is, and in particular, turnover “luck.” They ranked third in the NFL with 30 turnovers. Their biggest strength there has been a safety duo, where both guys are 31 years old. Their Pro Bowl corner Tre’Davious White is coming off a torn ACL and they’ll be relying on 33-year-old free agency addition Von Miller to be their alpha pass-rusher. Miller hadn’t looked up to that task before coming to L.A. late last season.
#2- The New England Patriots
There’s one area of the team to zero in on, even with their weird obsession of keeping who’s going to be calling offensive plays a secret. Rather, it’s the fact that they lack true difference-makers.
Having lost cornerback J.C. Jackson and to some degree their starting duo of guards over the last two years, it's hard to point to guys that really worry opponents game-planning for them. Other than maybe Matt Judon or just the respect they have for Bill Belichick. They haven’t re-signed three of their top four linebackers and just had the worst draft in the league from a value perspective in relation to consensus boards.
#3- The Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, did base their offseason around acquiring that one true superstar in Tyreek Hill. With him, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki, they certainly have some receiving weapons there now. But there are still major questions about the offense.
🏼Reminder: Tyreek Hill is a Miami Dolphin.💪🏼
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With new head coach Mike McDaniel having worked under Kyle Shanahan since 2006, he knows how to give his playmakers the ball in space. Tua Tagovailoa can get it there if he’s in rhythm and has space. However, the better defensive play-callers understand how to force him to make plays outside of that. He’s unproven in that regard, as a guy who plays rather small in the pocket. The only two quarterbacks with lower intended air yards per attempt last season (7.0) were Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff.
They did sign a franchise left tackle in Terron Armstead, but he missed half of last season and has only played more than ten games twice since 2016. The rest of the offensive line is still a question mark. Connor Williams is an upgrade at left guard, even if his 12 penalties surrendered last year were the second-most in the league. Austin Jackson may be back in the lineup, and Michael Deiter is probably making a switch to center. Their potential starter at right tackle, Liam Eichenberg, was charged with nine sacks and ten penalties as a rookie.
Can the Jets win the AFC East?
So at least in terms of jumping those latter two teams, there’s certainly a path for the Jets. Zach Wilson will definitely benefit from a full offseason. It's tough to comprehend just how well he will perform in 2022.
The Jets got a top-ten pick at wide receiver in Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson. With their two top guys from a year ago back healthy and a completely overhauled tight-end room, teams won’t be able to just lock up the Jets in man coverage. Zach Wilson was ranked dead-last by a significant margin against man coverage in EPA last year.
With their second-rounder Breece Hall, the Jets now also have an excellent running back duo. This will give them a better balance with the rushing attack and present options out of the backfield.
The Jets defense ranked 32nd in yards and points allowed as well as DVOA. But that’s nearly impossible to recreate, and there are several reasons why they’re bound to recover. Just look-wise, they’re completely different with two new starting edge defenders, corners and safeties. Most likely including last year’s big free agency signing Carl Lawson and two top-eight overall prospects from the draft.
Give Robert Saleh those pieces, who earned his current job by coordinating one of the premiere defenses in football a couple of years ago in San Francisco, and they could turn this round.
So altogether, the Jets are one of the more promising young squads with quite a hill to climb. This is mainly due to having the current Super Bowl favorites inside their division. But the NFL is a treacherous place, and favorites on paper don't always perform on the field. So watch out!
Chance of winning the division: 10-15%
For the full list, make sure to visit the original piece and feel free to check out a bunch of my other write-ups and videos!