Top 10 NFL power rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2023 season
It’s that point of the year again – we enter the figurative fourth quarter of the NFL season. Teams are starting to separate themselves at the top-end and bottom of the league, but there’s still very little clarity in the middle of the pack. So now I’ll try to distinguish between those squads with similar records, as we head down the home stretch, and rank them one through 32.
As always, these are power RANKINGS rather than standings. So I’m well aware that these aren’t fully compliant with how records stack up and that some teams may have beat others, who are listed ahead of them. I base this on what my eyes tell me first of course, but will bring up different metrics, to make my points, as well as add context to certain numbers.
Let’s get into it:
1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
I recorded a video last week, in which I broke down in detail how Kyle Shanahan absolutely shredded the Eagles' defense and at the end of it, I mentioned that I thought they had separated themselves a little bit from the rest of the NFL. While the Drew Lock-led Seahawks did pull within five points to start the fourth quarter, it felt like they were in clear control throughout the day.
This offense is operating on a DIFFERENT level right now. Since their week nine bye, they’re averaging 0.276 EPA per play. For reference that is 1.5 times as high as the number three team, yet they’re also number one in success rate on dropbacks (52.8%) and on run plays (48.5%).
What makes them so special is the combination of insane versatility with the looks they can present from the same personnel and a play-caller, who understands how to attack defensive rules better than anybody else in the sport, while Brock Purdy has turned himself into far more than just a distributor.
With that being said, their defense has also made a significant jump, allowing an average of 13 points per game and not allowing any of their five opponents to reach 20. The addition of Chase Young has paid major dividends after Nick Bosa was double-teamed at one of the highest rates among edge rushers before his arrival.
However, it’s also being more sound on the back end in terms of playing less true man-coverage and a lot more quarters. If this group can stay largely healthy, they’re the clear favorites at a title to me right now, especially considering they already blew out their two biggest challengers in the Cowboys and Eagles.
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
While they may be a slight step down from the 49ers on the opposite side of the bracket, considering all the other AFC teams have at least one major question mark, you could contend that the Ravens have more separation from the rest of their conference.
Just like San Francisco – where they travel to in week 16 – they control their destiny, with the Dolphins visiting them the week after that, and now they could even afford to slip once if they can just take care of Miami.
Lamar Jackson’s numbers don’t jump out the same way they did in his MVP season, but he’s been my pick for the award all year long, as new OC Todd Monken has put the game more in his hands, and I think he’s playing the position as well as he ever has, being able to navigate the pocket and deliver the ball to all areas of the field, now that he has legit receivers around him.
Plus, they may get Mark Andrews back for their playoff run. And while he leads them in that category, already having gone over 2000 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry helps. With that being said, their transformation on defense may have been even more substantial – looking at scheme and overall success.
Mike Macdonald has worked wonders with his ability to find solutions for the staples of their opponents and then fabricate heat on quarterbacks in designated passing situations (lead the NFL with 49 sacks) without real stars up front, thanks to the insane amount of simulated pressure and how they manipulate protection. They allow a league-low 4.3 yards per play and they’re behind only the Browns in terms of EPA per play (-0.122) and DVOA defensively (-19.5%).
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-3)
When you look at the two most meaningful numbers in football – points scored vs. allowed – nobody has a better differential of the season than these Cowboys (+188). The issue until this past Sunday night was the argument of “who have they beaten”, as all nine of their wins had come against opponents with a below-.500 record.
By evening up the season series with the Eagles, and doing so with an assertive 33-13 showcase, with the only Philly touchdown coming on a scoop-and-score, they prove that they can with the “big boys”. Now, we do have to note that they still don’t control their own destiny to an NFC East crown and they’ve been significantly better at home, plus of course, until they can overcome the 49ers – who blew them out 42-10 back in week five – none of this truly matters.
With that being said, I feel like this is the best all-around Dallas team of my lifetime (which spans exactly the amount of time it’s been since their last Super Bowl). Since people were calling out Dak Prescott for his performance at San Francisco, no other quarterback has been better in terms of EPA per play (0.355) or success rate (55.3%).
That coincides with Ceedee Lamb being a massive heater (8.6 catches for 112 yards on average), putting on an absolute clinic as a route-runner, but the story has been the ancillary weapons stepping up when called upon and the O-line emerging as one the elite units in the NFL again.
There’s still some feast-or-famine character to the defense, which has eaten up bad opponents, considering the Seahawks put up 35 points at Dallas the week prior, but they haven’t allowed more than 110 rushing yards since week five and when they’re ahead, their combination of pass-rush and ball-hawking on the back-end is the best in the league.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)
It was almost impossible to drop to the Eagles any lower than number four, and I still believe they are right up there with anybody – maybe outside of San Francisco – in terms of overall talent on the roster. However, they just got thoroughly dominated by those Niners and Cowboys by a combined score of 75-32, and even before that, they were a misjudgment between the quarterback and receiver from the Bills and a horrible missed pass interference call away from potentially going 0-4 across that stretch.
We’ve seen moments of dominance from different areas of the team, but you can argue that they haven’t played a complete game yet all season long. The two biggest areas of concern are Jalen Hurts’ general health and ability to see the field in the dropback game, along with the substantial downgrade we’ve seen from a play-calling perspective on both sides of the ball.
The offense is extremely reliant on iso-ball with their top two receivers, without the easy buttons they could spam last year to create YAC opportunities, as the run game hasn’t been nearly as dependable with how simplistic they are and Jalen not being a true threat in that regard right now. Defensively, opponents are consistently able to dictate what coverages they’re in and present answers for how to attack those.
The D-line is capable of taking over contests when playing with the lead, but even those front dynamics can be taken advantage of if you put the pressure on a second level that seems lost. They’re dead-last in third-down percentage (48.1%) and 30th in red-zone TD rate (70.5%). It’s time to self-scout and find ways to let the talent shine again.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
Numbers one through four were pretty simple for me. This is where I kind of struggled. On one hand, trusting Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to still figure things out has been a winning strategy for a long time, but at the same time this seems too high considering the only team they’ve defeated over the last month were the Raiders.
What led me this way is the idea of “if they were third in scoring offense and 11th on defense, would I question them as much as I do?”. And while I do feel like they handled themselves very poorly at the end of the Bills game, outside of an atypical 24-9 let-down at Denver in week eight, all five of their losses were determined by one play not going in their favor, whether that’s a bad drop, a receiver not checking with the ref if he was aligned correctly or also an egregious missed penalty.
It hasn’t been as easy as it’s seemed in the past and the AFC most likely isn’t going through Arrowhead, but all they need from their receivers is not to be net minuses, as they currently lead the league with 31 drops. While he’s regressed a little closer to the median, Mahomes still is at the top of the league in sack rate of his dropbacks (3.6%), he’s been as effective as ever as a runner and they remain as a top-five third-down offense (47.2%).
Meanwhile, this is the best KC defense of this current iteration of the team, as they rank fifth in points (17.5 PPG) and tied for fifth in yards per play surrendered (4.9 YPP), while only the Jets have pressured opposing quarterbacks at a higher rate (25.0% of dropbacks). Even with an overall turnover differential of -7, they’ve been right there in the biggest matchups.
6. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
I know on the surface it seems wild to put a team that only just moved above .500 again this past Sunday at number six here. However, the Bills are also one of only five teams with a point differential of +100 or better, while being a stupid “12-men on defense” penalty plus an all-time great 60-yard kick in the rain being missed away from being the number two seed in the AFC right now.
Offensively, are tied for third with 5.8 yards per play and only the Cowboys have picked up more first downs on the year (292). Yet, while they average the fourth-most points per drive (2.41), unfortunately, they also turn the ball over at the fifth-highest rate (14.9% of drives).
That has been their Achilles heel for certain stretches and a big reason Josh Allen has received criticism in the past. Yet, I’m here to tell you once again that he’s been a superhero for them and you can’t ask anybody to carry the team to that extent without the negative correlations that come with it. While not a ton has changed schematically we’ve seen the OC change to Joe Brady result in a little less weight on the QB’s shoulders.
Josh is now right up there with Mahomes when you look at his sack rate per dropback (3.7%) and he’s allowed them to be second in both third-down conversion rate (48.8%) and red-zone percentage (66.7%). The defense has actually been the much bigger concern to me, as they’ve remained fairly predictable with Sean McDermott taking over as the de-facto coordinator, while they’ve lost key pieces in DaQuan Jones, Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White to injury.
If you can get those corners isolated, that’s where they become very vulnerable, and Von Miller’s impact has not been felt yet. If they do make it into the tournament, I believe they can be effective enough with specific game plans, to make a few plays and support what has been a top offense at moving the ball throughout the year.
7. Miami Dolphins (9-4)
I’m sure most people have seen this by now, but NFL teams were 767-0 when leading by 14+ points with under three minutes left since 2016 until Miami allowed the Titans to erase that deficit in just one minute actually. I’m not 100% sure what to make of it, because it is somewhat fluky in principle, but they also made it look way too easy, in particular defensively, and then Tua and company couldn’t put together a two-minute drill for a game-winning field goal.
Fairly similar to the general discourse around the Cowboys before this past week, Miami’s overall statistics and record were boosted by what they have done against losing teams, as the only win against an opponent with a record of .500 or better came against the Broncos back in week three – which that 70-burger they put on them now feels forever ago.
While you do have to go to the third decimal, the Dolphins haven’t been number one in yards per play offensively (6.74) since week two. Mike McDaniel, Tua and Tyreek Hill of course deserve major credit for orchestrating one of the most explosive units we’ve ever seen – including the fact they’re cashing in three quarters of their red-zone trips for touchdowns – but the top teams they’ve faced have had solutions for the challenges they present with motion and field spacing, while not nearly having looked the same off-script.
Meanwhile, the defense had been emerging since the return of Jalen Ramsey, but the loss of their top pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips is a major factor down the stretch for them and they can’t hold opponents to field goals, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on two thirds of red-zone trips.
8. Cleveland Browns (8-5)
It’s been a weird season for the Browns. If you just gave someone the facts of the quarterback with the highest guaranteed contract in NFL history, arguably the top running back of the last decade and their starting tackle duo ultimately having played a combined 14 full games, you’d think they’d be dead.
Yet, while the Browns' offense is still only 29th throughout the full season in terms of yards per play (4.5 YPP) and they’ve turned the ball over a league-high 27 times, they did just score 30+ points in consecutive weeks for the first time all year and I would argue they have landed on their best quarterback option yet, with Joe Flacco being the fourth one to start multiple contests for them.
He’s legitimately played after sitting on his couch three weeks ago and Kevin Stefanski has served up some explosive play opportunities on a silver platter for him. Of course, this Cleveland defense has been the real story throughout the year and it remains an elite unit, still ranking number one in EPA per play (-0.149), success rate (36.2%) and DVOA (-20.9%), despite having to carry an offense that has been anywhere from disappointing to outright disastrous, while starting four different quarterbacks for multiple contests.
Watching them on Sunday against the Jaguars, I thought to myself numerous times how I absolutely love the aggressiveness they play with. Jim Schwartz at DC has instilled a mindset of being the aggressors after they were pretty conservative in terms of how they were structured previously.
While they don’t run too much blitz-zero, they call cover-one at an NFL-high 41.7% of snaps, because they have the league’s top corner trio and it allows them to create – and expose – one-on-ones up front. They regularly create negative plays on early downs (lead the NFL with 79 TFLs) and then they’ve held opponents to easily a league-worst 29.0% third-down conversion rate.
9. Detroit Lions (9-4)
It’s been a tough three weeks for the Lions. First, the Packers come into their house on Thanksgiving and Jordan Love gives them PTSD for all the years Aaron Rodgers tortured them, then they allow the otherwise anemic Derek Carr-led Saints offense to nearly pull off a 21-nothing comeback and then this past Sunday, they travel to Chicago, where the quasi-eliminated home team looks like the more dominant team up front.
The offense is still tied for third with 5.8 yards per play, with top-eight success rates in both dropbacks (48.2%) and rushing success rate (41.7%). Concerns around Jared Goff having to go on the road in the playoffs are very real, but OC Ben Johnson does present a lot of challenges for how broad their menu is from a play-calling perspective and they’ve run the ball effectively all season long.
Sadly, their defense has reverted to first-half of 2022 form since their week nine bye. Over those last five games, they rank 31st in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate. Their linebackers have taken a significant step backward from what they looked like early in the season.
You can attack them with misdirection and isolate them in coverage with high-low stretches. So now as opponents have more success throwing the ball on early downs and they don’t push them behind the sticks, you’d need anybody not named Aidan Hutchinson to win up front – and nobody does.
Alim McNeill being placed on IR a couple of weeks ago is a major hit in that regard. If you at least held opponents to field goals, they could win that way, but they’re allowing a 68.2% red-zone TD percentage (29th in the NFL). It just doesn’t feel anymore like they’re up there with the “big three” in the NFC.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Before we get to anything else – for Trevor Lawrence to even be out there with the high-ankle sprain and then to move the way he did was absolutely insane. Now, he did throw three interceptions, but those weren’t necessarily related to his health, and he did also keep them in the game.
Early on in the season, they were turning the ball over at the most inopportune times, their receivers could not get both feet down in the end-zone to save their lives when they got to the red zone, but it also felt so exhausting with the way they would have to string together long drives in a very horizontal passing attack.
However, over the past four weeks, he’s produced 17 of his 42 total completions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, as explosive as Travis Etienne is when he’s given a lane or he can get around the corner, overall only the Raiders and Bucs average less than Jacksonville’s 3.6 yards per carry.
Thankfully, they’ve been equally effective at stopping their opponents’ ground, as they rank second in defensive rushing success rate (34.0%). Mike Caldwell has been pretty aggressive with bringing heat and putting their guys on islands on the back end, which has led to them being tied with the Broncos for a league-high 24 takeaways, but also only the Chargers have given up more yards after the catch (1763) as a unit this season.
The edge defender Josh Allen has been a spectacular one-man show for them up front, but they need somebody else to create pressure, so they can keep Tyson Campbell locked up on the backside of the formation, but use their coverage resources more appropriately to flood the field.
Just missed the cut:
Denver Broncos (7-6), Los Angeles Rams (6-7), Houston Texans (7-6) & Green Bay Packers (6-7)