Top 100 NFL players of 2023 ft. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Jefferson & more
It’s that time of the year again when we rank the top 100 players in the NFL heading into the 2023 season.
The players have been isolated based on skill level, rather than judging their value to their respective teams or how good they may be in a specific role.
Before we get to the actual list, here are a few players who I considered ineligible due to missing time with injury in the past or expected to not be available for a certain amount of games in 2023 – Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Alvin Kamara, Calvin Ridley, Darren Waller, Harold Landry, J.C. Jackson, and Micah Hyde.
Let’s dive into the actual list:
#1 Patrick Mahomes
Since Mahomes took over from Alex Smith in 2018, nobody has been more valuable to their team. Last season he had the top mark among quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.302 vs. 0.242 as the next-closest).
He’s only finished worse than second once across his five seasons as a starter – and that was at third in 2020. The Houdini-like plays are what catch everybody’s eye, to such an extent that people often don’t appreciate how he can dice up defenses within a structure as well.
Plus, his toughness and drive are off the charts, as we saw when he defeated the most-loaded roster in the league on a bummed-up ankle for his second ring.
#2 Justin Jefferson
Jefferson led the NFL in receptions (128), yards (1809), and first downs through the air (80) last season. You can argue his quarterback Kirk Cousins had a career year, and the passing game was the most well-designed since Jefferson got there, but I don’t believe even well-versed fans understand how much this guy carried that unit.
Looking at yards per route run (Jefferson finished behind only Tyreek Hill among players with 50+ targets at 2.55), the only Viking higher than 166th in that metric last season was T.J. Hockenson, who didn’t get traded to Minnesota until the second half of the year.
Jefferson can absolutely destroy DBs in man coverage, he displays high football IQ working against the zone, and understands how to manipulate the safety when bracketed. His ability to evade contact as a route-runner is impeccable, yet he hauled in 22 of 40 contested targets last season.
#3 Nick Bosa
It didn’t take the second overall pick from the 2019 NFL Draft very long to make his presence known in the pros, as he set what easily is the top mark in defensive pressures by a rookie (80) since the inception of Pro Football Focus.
After being struck by injury in the second week of his encore season, he’s been one of the elite edge defenders in football these last two years, ascending to apex predator status in 2022.
Not only did Bosa lead the NFL with 18.5 sacks, but he also racked up 12 more QB hits than any other player in the league (48) last season. Moreover, only Maxx Crosby recorded more than Bosa’s 19 tackles for loss. What makes that even more impressive is the fact that he played just under 70% of defensive snaps for San Francisco.
#4 Josh Allen
The term “force of nature” encapsulates best what type of player Allen is. He finished head and shoulders above the rest of the competition with his 52 big-time throws (compared to Mahomes’ 38) last season, yet he also led the Bills in yards per rush (6.1), first downs (55), and touchdowns on the ground (seven).
Early on last season, it looked like he was unstoppable because he started getting to his checkdowns and picking apart defenses trying to take away the deep ball, but once he injured the elbow on his throwing arm, the average depth of target actually increased substantially, as, without precision accuracy, the payoff wasn’t worth the risk associated with high-volume underneath passing.
With that being said, he will need to take better care of the ball in the red zone. I believe we saw a healthy Allen become more efficient in those areas again, whilst still having the most lethal arm (strength) in football and killing defenses with his legs, as his 9.4 yards per scramble was second to only Justin Fields (9.6) among QBs with 10+ attempts.
#5 Travis Kelce
Something Danny Heifetz of the Ringer’s Fantasy Football Show loves to bring up – the difference between having Kelce in half-PPR formats compared to the No. 2 tight end (T.J. Hockenson) was the same as the difference between Hockenson and TE 22.
Kelce’s a cheat code in all fantasy formats, but he’s even more frustrating to deal with for defenses in real life. No pass catcher was responsible for more first downs (78) and touchdowns (12) last season than Kelce, with 90 in total, finishing second in both categories. That’s despite seeing 32 and 28 fewer targets than the respective leaders among those marks.
His ability to manipulate any man defender with body language and untraditional movements during the route or punish any voids left in zone coverage is immaculate. The chemistry between him and Mahomes is hard to even verbalize, but it’s been a huge reason Kansas City has finished top-three in third-down conversion rate each of the five years they’ve worked together.
#6 Myles Garrett
With Nick Bosa missing almost all of 2020 and T.J. Watt being at full strength for half of this past season at best, you can easily make an argument that Garrett has been the best edge defender in football over the last three years.
In 2022, he actually “fell” to second-team All-Pro after a couple of first-team nods, in large part because the Browns were in the bottom quarter of the league in rushing yards average and total, which led to fewer favorable true pass-rush opportunities.
However, he received the highest overall PFF grade (92.5) and pass-rush grade (93.5) among all defensive players in the NFL, along with being tied for fourth in tackles for loss (18).
While I believe Garrett’s run defense is underappreciated, it’s how much more bendy he’s become and his ability to move across the line in passing situations that have made him a menace to block. That’s how he’s tied with T.J. Watt for the highest sack-per-game rate in NFL history (0.89).
#7 Chris Jones
Myles Garrett was the only defensive player in the NFL with a higher overall PFF grade (92.3) than Jones, between Week 1 and the Super Bowl. While I don’t believe he’ll ever be quite as dominant against the run as Aaron Donald has been, I thought he became a lot more impactful near the point of attack this past season, and he was tied for seventh among all defensive players in TFLs (17).
More importantly, looking at the PFF database, Jones’ 97 total pressures were 27 more than the next-closest interior defensive lineman, if you include the playoffs. The fact he put up the highest pass-rush win rate among interior D-linemen (20.2%) and 11 of his 15.5 sacks ended opposing drives is even more impressive, considering he was double-teamed at the highest rate in the league (69%).
He’s become a true closer for the league’s most dominant team. That’s how he’s moved slightly ahead of AD for now.
#8 Trent Williams
The only reason Trent isn’t considered an all-time great like Joe Thomas is that he missed 29 games between 2016 and 2019.
In each of his three years with the 49ers, he has been the highest-graded offensive tackle in Pro Football Focus’ database. That was the case in two years in Washington (2013 and 2016) as well.
Williams has to be the scariest man to step in front of in the run game, where he can drive guys out to the sideline, cave in one side entirely for cutback lanes, or make the knees of defenders shake when he gets out in space.
Along with that, he has held opposing pass-rushers to just one sack in each of the last two seasons and 61 total pressures across 1708 pass-blocking snaps these prior three years.
#9 Aaron Donald
Even though Donald is coming off by far his least productive season as a pro, I could not ignore the resume of this all-time great and drop him outside the top 10. Even if you just go by traditional statistics, his 103 sacks and 160 tackles for loss across 138 games, put him in a league of his own as far as interior D-linemen go.
However, in four of the five seasons prior to 2022, he cracked at least 102 combined pressures, including the playoffs. Only Tamba Hali, J.J. Watt, Za’Darius Smith, Maxx Crosby, and Micah Parsons have reached that number since PFF started tracking those back in 2006 – and they all only did it once each.
However, that should not overshadow the type of disruption Donald creates in the run game, where his first step, combined with insane strength of around 280 pounds, constantly messes up plays. In fact, he has received an overall grade of over 90 in all nine of his seasons as a pro.
#10 Joe Burrow
The Bengals' offense struggled during their 0-2 start last season, but once they made the fundamental shift to a more 11-personnel-heavy, spread approach, they became one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL (second behind only the Chiefs with 0.129 EPA per play from week six onwards).
Even with Ja’Marr Chase missing some time and the supposedly improved O-line having issues in protection for stretches, Joe Burrow was able to finish behind only Mahomes with 279.7 passing yards per game and 35 touchdowns through the air, whilst being tied for the second-lowest time-to-throw (2.5 seconds).
While the Bengals were probably one mental mistake in Kansas City away from going to back-to-back Super Bowl, Burrow himself was tied with Mahomes for the highest PFF grade (92.0), just ahead of Allen (91.8), with the best big-time-throw (37) to turnover-worthy play (18) rate among the three (2.06-to-one).