Week 14 NFL MVP contenders: Tyreek Hill's odds on the up, Dak Prescott still in play, Christian McCaffrey surging
With quarterback play not as dominant as it usually is, position players are officially a threat to become the next NFL MVP. The league usually gives the award to the best quarterback, but the best quarterback this year hasn't been as elite as in years past across the board. That has opened the door for Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill, with Dak Prescott remaining strong.
Here's the state of the 2023 NFL MVP odds heading into Week 14.
Week 14 NFL MVP Contenders: 3 dark horse candidates who could come to the fore
3] Christian McCaffrey
With how little value the running back position carries, it's a total shock to see Christian McCaffrey in the MVP conversation. The running back is doing it all on offense, but he's the only running back even in the conversation. The next-best odds for a running back to win MVP are +25000 to Derrick Henry. That's worse than Baker Mayfield, TJ Watt and Joshua Dobbs.
CMC is an absolute longshot, but that's why he's a dark horse candidate.
2] Trevor Lawrence
If Trevor Lawrence can get to 9-3 with a win on Monday Night Football, he'd have the second-best record in the NFL and would have pretty good numbers. His odds would likely rise and while he has certainly played poor now and then this year, he's overall been very good. If the hot streak continues, it would be a surprise not to hear his name entered into the conversation.
1] Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill really shouldn't be a dark horse candidate at this point. If not for the positional bias in MVP awards, Hill would be a shoo-in. He's almost assuredly going to win Offensive Player of the Year. He could set records and has made the Miami Dolphins offense exceptional. Tua Tagovailoa is playing really well, but it's easy when you have a literal MVP-caliber player to throw to whenever you want.
2023 NFL MVP odds for Week 14
With two teams yet to play in Week 13, the odds have shifted on who will be the NFL MVP this year. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have led the league in this respect for much of the season.
According to FanDuel, a Dallas Cowboys star is the favorite now:
- Dak Prescott, +300
- Brock Purdy, +350
- Jalen Hurts, +350
- Patrick Mahomes, +600
- Lamar Jackson, +800
- Tua Tagovailoa, +800
- Tyreek Hill, +2500
- CJ Stroud, +2500
- Josh Allen, +3000
- Christian McCaffrey, +3000
- Trevor Lawrence, +3000
As mentioned, Trevor Lawrence has yet to play this week, so his odds could shift. Regardless, Prescott has emerged as the betting favorite to win his first ever MVP award.
Shortly behind him is Brock Purdy. The San Francisco 49ers have rebounded from a brief skid and look unstoppable. Purdy diced up the Philadelphia Eagles' defense with a terrific performance on Sunday, which had his odds skyrocket.
The MVP bias towards quarterbacks is apparent still, though. Tua Tagovaila is a good player, but Hill is the driving force on that offense. Yet, Tagovailoa has significantly better odds of winning the NFL MVP award.
All of the last 10 NFL MVPs have been a one or two seed in their respective conference. That makes it a difficult play for someone like Tagovailoa or Hill, who will likely end up as a three seed. It boosts the chances for players like Patrick Mahomes or Hurts, who could well be the top seeds in their conferences.
It's potentially a big reason why Purdy has such strong odds, as the 49ers have good odds of being the NFC's one seed, which would give him an extremely strong case to win the award.
With a relatively wide open field, team success could play an even bigger role in the voting than it usually does.