Why Buffalo Bills third-year wide receiver Gabriel Davis will break out in 2022
Gabriel Davis was selected by the Buffalo Bills with the 128th overall pick in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft. In college, he saw an impressive ascent throughout his time at UCF. His receptions, yards, per-catch average, and touchdowns significantly rose throughout the three years. He finished as a junior with 72 catches for 1,241 yards and 12 touchdowns that year. While he did produce right away as a rookie, the public is finally catching onto him now.
Here are five reasons why he Gabriel Davis will have a breakout year in 2022:
#1- Gabriel Davis produced similar stats in 2021 to his rookie year despite playing less snaps
Gabriel Davis’ snap percentage decreased significantly from his rookie to his second season (73 to 51%). This was largely based on the addition of veteran Emmanuel Sanders and missing one game. However, over the final six contests he was available for (including two playoff games), he logged 83% or more all but once (against the New England Patriots in the Wildcard Round).
Just looking at the regular season numbers, despite having 226 fewer offensive snaps compared to 2020, Davis basically produced the same stat line (62 targets, 35 catches for 599 yards and seven touchdowns vs. 63 targets, 35 catches, 549 yards, and six touchdowns). Importantly, 46 of his targets came over the final eight contests.
His big breakout moment came in that incredible Divisional Round back-and-forth with the Kansas City Chiefs. He hauled in eight of ten targets for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Other than that, he reached 48 or more yards just twice on the year. In year three, that may just be his baseline on a weekly basis.
#2- Gabriel Davis has an elite skillset
Stefon Diggs is a very dynamic route-runner and has been a highly productive number one receiver for Josh Allen. However, Davis stands out physically above the rest in Buffalo, at 6‘2“ and 210 pounds. His ability to win as a big-bodied vertical threat is what made him an intriguing mid-round draft prospect.
Last season, he hauled in nine of 17 red-zone targets and ranked tenth in contested catch (success) rate at 58.3%. He has dropped eight of 78 catchable targets. However, he has converted an absurd rate of his receptions into first downs, with 27 and 29 respectively on 35 catches.
JOSH ALLEN AND GABRIEL DAVIS' 4TH TD GIVES THE BILLS THE LEAD WITH 17 SECONDS.🏈🚨 JOSH ALLEN AND GABRIEL DAVIS' 4TH TD GIVES THE BILLS THE LEAD WITH 17 SECONDS.
🏈🚨 Tremendo Josh Allen para Gabriel 4 TD #NFL de locos eso si la secundaria de Kansas mal
: #BUFvsKC
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He’s made most of his opportunities in game situations, but by all reports, he’s put in a lot of great work behind the scenes. This is why we’ve seen that growth as an all-around receiver. His quarterback backed that up following their Divisional Round loss to Kansas City, when he said:
“(Davis) didn’t complain, he didn’t pout, he didn’t give up. He just put his head down and worked his (butt) off.”
#3- He will have honed his skills and improved on his weaknesses
As successful as Davis has been as a vertical target, there’s more nuance to his game than the broadcast view may reveal all the time. Heading into year three, he’s significantly improved his footwork to create an angle for himself down the sideline. He has hit some excellent diamond-releases, plus he has the strength to straighten his route back up and work through contact.
He understands how to change up his releases based on the leverage of press-defenders. He can really sell the take-off, make corners flip their hips and then stop his momentum exceptionally well for such a big man. He can easily create separation on curl routes.
@PFF_AustinGayleIt must be cold in Kansas City, because Gabriel Davis put this DB on ice skates 🥶
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Davis is really good at pushing up to safeties and presenting an attractive target on deep digs. On these, he runs through their grabs without having to slow down, yet he can also snatch high passes out of the air with those large hands. His strength is apparent when defenders get too far onto their toes trailing him and he shoves them off to the ground frequently. But then he also displays finesse in his awareness for and his ability to work the sidelines on the scramble drill.
#4- He is a threat in the play-action pasing game
We also need to talk about Davis as a blocker. Former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was able to use him as a big slot. He frequently took smaller defensive backs for rides. He did so on several occasions in the New Orleans Saints game.
Great play design and execution on 4th and 2. Motion Gabriel Davis in to sell the look of a run, Davis sells the block beautifully, then releases in rhythm with Josh Allen’s play action fake for a wide open TD
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Overall, Davis is just a valuable asset near the point of attack in the running game. Particularly by motioning him up to the tight-end or just controlling nickels and safeties, along with shielding the back-side with his frame. Because of what he can bring in that regard, he is even more dangerous in play-action. When he does push down the field, defenders often have their eyes in the backfied.
With Ken Dorsey being elevated to offensive coordinator, expect to see Davis inside on more than just a quarter of his snaps. Especially looking at the recent trend of power slots.
The combination of veteran Jamison Crowder and fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir from Boise State largely replaces Cole Beasley’s role at a 19.3% target share. Emmanuel Sanders’ 5.1 targets per game are up for grabs, to add to Davis’ average at just below four. Davis will see a more extensive job and will be asked to run a more diverse route tree in 2022.
Play action leak concept....Diggs and Gabriel Davis are both wide open #DabollSzn https://t.co/3PjRBZHtzU
There’s a little too much wasted movement and arm-pumping going on at times off the line, trying to break underneath defensive backs shaded inside. He sometimes does too good a job of getting the initial release when he has to ultimately break against his man's leverage. This allows the player to re-enter the picture.
#5- His pace is a real weapon
You want Davis working on that vertical plane as an outside receiver. He’s already a problem on post routes, as he adjusts his initial stem based on split and the rest of the concept. If he can’t beat safeties with his speed, he can still come down with those jump-balls over them. Because he’s more of a glider, you don’t want him to run a ton of intricate routes, where he has to start and stop multiple times. Although he can do more than we’ve seen so far.
Josh Allen is STILL on fire 🔥🔥
10 for 11 for 90 yards + 31-yard touchdown to Gabriel Davis
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He and Josh Allen continue to hone their connection. With more first-team reps, a higher frequency of back-shoulder balls should be on the menu. Especially if teams decide to bracket Diggs and leave one of those corners one-on-one on the sidelines. Along with that, expect to see them expand on Davis’ deployment in condensed sets. This will make use of his blocking abilities and he can work deep crossers, post and corner routes off play-action.
75 YARDS FOR GABRIEL DAVIS.
Buffalo 21 - Kansas City 23
Q3 | 1:56 #BillsMafia
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While the spotlight may be more so on the young wideout, the addition of Georgia running back James Cook in the second round of the draft will help. Opponents will have to respect the home-run threat he represents and his ability to legitimately split out wide spreads the field even more.
With the improvements we’ve seen from him basically every year since he started his college career, Davis could be a highly productive receiver. Especially for a team that threw the ball more than all but three others. Don't be surprised if he was flirting with the 1,000-yard mark as the second receiver on that offense.
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