Why Chicago Bears third-year tight-end Cole Kmet will break out in 2022
In one of the weaker classes in terms of top-end talent, Cole Kmet was the first tight-end off the board in the 2020 NFL draft at 43rd overall. At this point, it seems obvious that Kmet has a clearer path to being involved as a receiver considering how things are set up in Chicago. His physical style of play was apparent throughout his evaluation, whether as a route-runner, ball-carrier or blocker at Notre Dame.
Entering his third season with the Chicago Bears, he has often flown under the radar. Here are four reasons why Cole Kmet will have a breakout season in 2022:
#1- Cole Kmet was better in 2021 than people realize
People don't realize that Kmet more than doubled his receiving totals in 2021 compared to 2020. He went from 28 catches from 43 targets for 243 yards and two touchdowns to catching 60 from 93 targets for 612 yards. Strangely, he caught no touchdowns in 2021. His snap percentage shot up from 56% to 83%. Those per-game numbers were better than Allen Robinson, who played in 12 contests.
While this is asking for another significant uptick in production, Kmet is slated to become an even more integral piece to the Bears offense.
Kmet's head-scratching statistic last season was his zero touchdowns. Considering that Chicago finished the year 27th in total points scored and 16 touchdowns came through the air (29th), that mark becomes less noteworthy. Still, three other Bears tight-ends were able to reach the end-zone at least once. Jimmy Graham came in just one touchdown short of the team-lead at four (set by Darnell Mooney).
Kmet did see 12 targets in the red-zone (and hauled in half of those). With those targets aimed at the end-zone, the play-designs of Matt Nagy and Bill Lazorin were pretty questionable. Most were floaters towards the back-line. With Graham’s contract not extended, his eight more red-zone targets will be are up for the taking. So progression in this category is to be expected.
Chicago used two other tight-ends in Graham and Jesse James for about 23.5% each. Kmet was typically the guy working deeper down the field in the passing game on seams/benders, over and corner routes. This shows his willingness to attack at the intermediate level.
Kmet had a 94.8 receiving grade on medium depth targets (10-19 yards downfield), which plays perfectly to one of Field’s passing strengths (78.1 medium passing depth grade). Looking at Kmet’s drop percentage of 7.4% of catchable targets so far in his career, that mark is in line or better than most of the big-name guys at the position.
#2- Kmet has tremendous ability
In the passing game, Kmet showcases a good burst off the line. He’s a pretty fluid mover and has the flexibility to move all across the formation. His route pacing is good, as is his ability to set up his breaks in general. You could see him at times work out of the slot and beat inside-shaded linebackers or safeties cleanly on slant routes.
The tight end does a nice job of evading hook or hash defenders and slowing down in that soft spot up to safety on vertical routes or breaking off deeper curls. We saw the Bears line him up as the de facto X-receiver in a reduced split of three-by-one sets. On those plays, he showed good awareness for working that space between the corner and the safety against two-high shells. He beat perimeter cover-guys effectively inside and out, creating advantages for himself with the way he stemmed his routes.
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Kmet has shown the ability to create separation in a multitude of ways. When you put the ball in his hands, he’s a no-nonsense type of player. He’ll get upfield instantly and gain yards through contact. He’s not the type of guy who’ll make defenders flat-out miss, or fully break tackles (only four on 60 catches last season), but he does spin and pull himself forward pretty consistently.
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#3- The Bears will utilize him in 2022
We don’t know exactly what the scheme of new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will do, but we expect him to take elements of Green Bay’s offense. We did see Green Bay Packers tight-end Robert Tonyan nearly crack 600 yards and 11 touchdowns two years ago. They gave Tonyan a role that allowed him to catch the ball with space to run. Kmet can slip through traffic as he’s assigned with over routes or sneak underneath the formation on bootlegs.
.@ColeKmet is ready to make his mark in our new offense.
The Bears' former coaching staff trusted him in one-on-one pass-protection against true edge rushers. He displayed nice lateral movement and an understanding of the pocket depth. Plus, they used him on chips off the line, at times in split backfield sets. There he becomes a viable threat, leaking out and adjusting to those check-downs tremendously well when slightly off target.
Evaluating what Kmet was asked to do in college, he was already familiar with a pretty diverse set of blocking duties as part of Notre Dame’s rushing attack. He can really widen the C-gap by attacking edge defenders and driving his feet through contact at the point of attack. He’ll also gladly do the dirty work of trapping D-tackles or cutting backside ends down low on split zone concepts.
Including Allen Robinson, five of the top-eight target leaders for Chicago in 2021 are no longer on the team. This frees up 185 combined targets. The only player the Bears will want to be involved on offense, based on capital invested, is third-round pick Velus Jones Jr. from Tennessee. He was a YAC and return specialist, rather than a refined route-runner.
Looking at the veteran additions they’ve made, Byron Pringle is their big name. They brought him in on a one-year, four-million dollar contract. Pringle was with the Kansas CIty Chiefs in 2021. The four other signings are Tajae Sharpe, David Moore, Dante Pettis and Equanimeous St. Brown. They are all with the Bears for almost exactly a million bucks each this year and aren’t currently considered long-term pieces for this attack.
In Nagy’s mixture between 12 personnel packages and spread formations, Kmet’s been a major plus in the quick screen game. Mainly due to his ability to snatch up defensive backs in space and provide his teammates with room to operate. He understands angles and the timing of blocking schemes at an advanced macro level. Often you will see him just managing to put his body in the way of guys on the backside in seal-offs.
The same is true when working on combos with the tackle on lead/power plays and when to peel off and cut the angle for the linebacker. The Bears should only expand on that under Getsy. While we have already seen them use Kmet offset, they can move him across pre-snap and change up the look a little bit.
#4- Cole Kmet will have improved on his weaknesses
If there’s one area that Kmet certainly needs to improve upon, it’s his ability to shield passes with his frame on arrival and finish plays. The catch is sometimes disrupted. He saw too many balls jarred loose when addressing the football in tight areas. This was due to not extending or “properly” body-catching, but rather using a kind of an underhand technique.
Stick and hook routes especially should have been a lot more prosperous. Overall, he could attack the ball more in the air. He flashes when he needs to, but not consistently enough. While he does well to turn his head as he enters voided areas, he has to understand better when they’ve been surpassed. He then needs to get into a secondary route or sit down beforehand. This should improve as he and his second-year quarterback continue to work on their chemistry.
Justin Fields was just 0.1 intended air yards behind Russell Wilson for the lead-league. Nearly 30 percent of his throws off play-action went at least 28 yards through the air (nobody else even cracked 20%). He will definitely utilize this big-bodied weapon vertically.
Given their lack of weaponry at wide receiver, the play-calling should look to take pressure off their young signal-caller. They should present Fields with easy dump-offs to his tight ends off the boot game. They should slip Kmet into space as they fake jet sweeps. Certainly, more beneficial red-zone targets should be underway for Kmet, which is where he may add six to eight touchdowns, plus another 200 yards.
With this in mind, you can easily see a breakout year for the young tight end. If he can build on his work from 2021 and add a few touchdowns to his game, you'll likely be hearing his name a lot in 2022.
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