Young NFL breakout candidates for 2024: Falcons EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
It took a while for Arnold Ebiketie to make a name for himself in college. Arriving at Temple as a three-star recruit in 2017, he didn’t become a starter in 2020 but then in one season with Penn State, he emerged as one of the top edge defenders in the country, racking up 9.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss.
Coming off a year in which their 18 sacks were 11 less than any other team in the league and not having a player reach double-digits in that statistic individually in a decade outside of an outlier Vic Beasley season (16), the Falcons were desperate to find a true impact player at that position.
With the top three names in that 2022 draft being off the board by the time they were on the clock at pick eight, they instead opted for USC wide receiver Drake London, but snatched up Arnold Ebiketie early in the second round (38th overall).
The latter has since appeared in all but one game these past two years, but officially has only started in seven, with Atlanta making quite a substantial investment into their D-line last offseason. While his tackles for loss (three) and forced fumbles (two) stayed the same compared to 2022, his sack total jumped up from 2.5 to six.
More telling about the growth Arnold Ebiketie has already showcased is that his pressure rate jumped from 9.2% as a rookie to 16.0% last year. Having said that, I believe there’s reason to believe he’s about to take another step forward and finally be that lines up on the edge and consistently gives this team the production, that they’ve been desperate for over a decade now.
Let me break down why Arnold Ebiketie could become a cornerstone piece for this new coaching staff in Atlanta.
Why Falcons EDGE Arnold Ebiketie could break out in the 2024 NFL season
First and foremost, Arnold Ebiketie has beefed up a little bit from where he was in terms of his body type at Penn State, and I think that muscle shows up in his ability to extend with his triceps and press off blockers near the point of attack. That’s why the Falcons have been far more comfortable with putting him out on early downs.
He offers great pursuit speed off the backside of run concepts and when tight-ends were asked to seal him away from the action, Arnold Ebiketie would ride them down the line, in order to plug cutback lanes.
Yet, if the quarterback keeps the ball on bootlegs, this guy’s very disciplined with not allowing the passer to pull all the way through to get around him, forcing him to get the ball out, often times just flipping it to someone out in the flats.
When he’s initially left unblocked, you do see Ebiketie shuffle inside, but I need to see him set the tone on contact with a guard pulling his way for a kick-out and I don’t think he’s the best stack-and-shed player at the point of attack, where he keeps that outside shoulder free, to actually make the tackle, if the running backs tries to bounce outside of him.
That has contributed to Arnold Ebiketie missing 18.2% of attempted tackles for his career so far. Ebiketie was the only Falcons edge/defensive lineman to log at least 20 snaps in coverage last season. Overall, he spent 72 of 247 snaps (29.1%) that he was on the field for on pass plays last season in that capacity.
You compare that to the Rams under the coaching of Raheem Morris, where Michael Hoecht and Byron Young combined for 360 snaps in coverage, with the former spending 39.0% of dropbacks going backwards.
Through two seasons, the young EDGE from Atlanta has allowed 15 of 22 targets as the next-closest coverage defender to be completed for 115 yards and one touchdown, with three passes broken up and none intercepted. Yet, I do like his movement skills and what he could provide flooding the underneath areas, with a solid ability to get guys to the ground after catching a checkdown.
Anyhow, the reason the Falcons invested an early second-round into this young man is what he offers rushing the passer. As one of his base moves, Arnold Ebiketie likes to utilize the dip-and-rip, where he’s become more powerful to turn the corner through contact with the tackle.
At the same time, evaluating his college tape, one of the big selling points was his ability to throw a wide array of moves at blockers and find some success on most of those. So you’ll see him stab inside or at least hesitate momentarily in order to create a softer outside shoulder and set himself up to win the corner. Off that, he’ll spin back inside as a counter in one fluid motion and without getting too far off track, as you’ll see some other players early in their careers.
You’ll also see Arnold Ebiketie deploy the long arm or transition into a bull-rush after pushing tackles up the field with his speed around the arc, where it’s the way he gets his body aligned at the quarterback in order to maximize that momentum he has built up, when the blocker has opened up his chest.
Having become more powerful while still having the speed up the arc to challenge tackles in their vertical pass-sets gives him easier answers, which was one of my big questions for him coming out of Penn State, where I would’ve labeled him more of a finesse rusher.
As he now continues to refine tools of his arsenal, I think we’ll see some power-to-speed maneuvers, where he aims more directly at the guy across from him only to quickly follow up with a two-hand swipe and work the outside anyway, or stab at the near-pec once he’s push the opponent up the field in order to slide inside. The more classic up-and-under was actually his most successful move in college I’d argue.
Arnold Ebiketie was still off the field on too many base and passing downs I’d say, as well as certain end-of-half situations, than you’d like to see from an early second-round pick you’d want to emerge as a true impact player. Still, they did allow veterans Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree to walk out the door without bringing in any proven commodities in their place.
Second- and fourth-round rookies Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus have the types of skill sets to be that big base D-end in the mold of Campbell, but on longer downs, I’d largely expect them to be used between the tackles and even along with Ebiketie on some 5-0 looks.
To me, he’s an outstanding fit for how that new coaching staff wants to use their outside linebackers, because he can drop into coverage and get his hands on the ball when they bring simulated pressures.
Arnold Ebiketie is very comfortable getting into those wide-nine alignments and either convert speed-to-power or counter inside as tackles overset him, and when they are in de-facto even fronts, they have those bigger body-types on the opposite end of the line, not asking him to deal with double-teams on the strong-side of the formation on certain run plays for example.
So combining that with the continued development of the player himself, I believe we could finally see someone hit double-digit sacks for the Falcons, or at least be up there pretty high in pressures and pop on tape with impact plays in different phases.