2015 World Cup - Ranking the title contenders
This is it then. The long, seemingly never-ending 48 month wait is almost over as we now enter the home straight. Today marks the exact 4 month date to the biggest stage of them all – The Cricket World Cup 2015.The last 5 months generally do not include many surprises when it comes to the World Cup squad or even the playing XI. Though the final XI may still be uncertain, selectors from all over the globe have almost finalized the squad they are going to send to Australia and New Zealand. Hence, there is enough certainty to make a preliminary assessment as to what we might expect to see in the gala event.The World Cup groups were drawn in accordance with the ICC ODI rankings as on 31st Dec 2012. Let us have a look at these:Pool APool BEngland (1)South Africa (2)Australia (4)India (3)Sri Lanka (5)Pakistan (6)Bangladesh (8)West Indies (7)New Zealand (9)Zimbabwe (10)AfghanistanIrelandScotlandUAEOne look at the table is enough to understand how they are placed. Seed (1) Starts with Pool A, Seeds (2) & (3) get into Pool B, (4) & (5) into Pool A again and so on. The table, which surprisingly shows Bangladesh above New Zealand, would have almost been ripped apart wide open had Bangladesh been at (7) and New Zealand at (8) for it would have meant 5 teams from the ‘Top 8’ in the same group.Thankfully, (8) and (9) made sure this was not the case and we expect to see the ‘Top 8’ in the knockouts without any hullaballoo. Whether this is the correct format or not to establish a world champion remains in question, the standings after the group stages would most likely resemble this:(There have been upsets in World Cup over the years, but Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe, Ireland and UAE don't seem possess the firepower required to upset the big guns Down Under)Pool APool BAustraliaSouth AfricaNew ZealandIndiaSri LankaPakistanEnglandWest IndiesThe quarter finals hence should look this way: – Australia vs West Indies at Adelaide – New Zealand vs Pakistan at Wellington – Sri Lanka vs India at the SCG/MCG – England vs South Africa at the SCG/MCG.The way the current format stands, if New Zealand qualify for the Quarter Finals, they play their match in Wellington. If the Australians do so, they get to play at Adelaide. If both of them qualify for the semis, New Zealand get to play at Auckland and Australia at the SCG. If both are pitted against each other (not as per the predictions), and the team who finished higher in Pool A will get the option of playing at home. This effectively means if New Zealand make it to semifinals, all teams not facing the Kiwis will have all their matches in Australia.Let us take a look at the aforementioned teams, analyze what they have in store and rank them in order of their chances to win the World Cup.
#8 England
Snowball’s chance in hell for the old guard
Strengths
Pace attack. No doubt about it. Even though the English bowlers are better suited for the swinging pitches back home and in New Zealand, the fast bouncy Australian tracks won’t bother them much either. An attack that would most probably consist of Anderson, Broad and one or two of Jordan, Finn and Bresnan is quite threatening to say the least. Whatever little chance the Englishmen have rests on these shoulders.
Weaknesses
Lack of power hitters. Absolutely no prizes for guessing this one. If Alex Hales does not play, it would mean the onus of power hitting is down to the duo of Morgan and Buttler only, players who come at 5 and 6 respectively. The English team consists of two many ‘traditionalists’ who are unable to step on the gas when required.
Defensive captaincy: Certainly not the first nor last criticism that has been directed at Alastair Cook. Unless the English selectors decide on something drastic, Cook is expected to lead England’s charge at the event. And his ultra-defensive mindset really doesn’t help his bowlers or his team as a whole. Even his own place in the ODI squad remains in question.
Opportunities
In all likelihood they are going to come up head-to-head against the South Africans. And what better an opportunity to play with the mindset of the African nation. It is a well known fact that South Africa have never won a single knock-out match at the ODI World Cup. If England can get under their skins early and evoke fear in their minds, the strength of the squad, potential and game plan of the Proteas becomes null and void.
If they manage to pull off this upset, it would mean playing their next match against either New Zealand (whom they are stronger against on paper) or Pakistan (a team not particularly known for their record outside the subcontinent) and have every chance of sneaking into the finals.
The potential presence of two decent all-rounders (Ben Stokes and Moeen Ali) may encourage them to tweak the current balance of the team.
Threats
The mindset. England simply have to realize this is not the 1980s anymore. The idea of playing out 30-35 overs before launching an attack has become outdated since the turn of this decade, or even milliennium for that matter. Every other team has evolved, but the Brits simply refuse to do so. If they keep playing this way next year, they might as well kiss their chances good-bye.
Probable XI: Cook (c), Hales, Bell/Ballance/Ali, Root, Morgan, Buttler (wk), Stokes/Woakes, Broad, Jordan/Finn/Bresnan, Tredwell, Anderson
Predictions: One-sided quarterfinal defeat against South Africa.