Best Bets for Week 10 of the 2022 NFL SEASON
2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 10 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Cincinnati Bengals, NE Patriots, NY Jets & Baltimore Ravens
Sunday November 13th, 2022 9:30am
Seattle Seahawks (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ TB Buccaneers (4-5), (2-6-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (0-4-1) ATS (Munich, Germany) SEA+2 ½
LW, TB QB Tom Brady pulled a rabbit out of the hat and showed us all why he’s the greatest. He led TB 60yds in 6plays with :35 seconds left & 0timeouts and got the TD to win the game 16-13. This was a boring game with two teams going nowhere and LAR were leading 13-6. But leave it to LAR HC Sean McVay who can’t close the door and TB clawed their way back with a fg and the td in the final seconds to win. TB was -3 and it ended up being a PUSH. LW, SEA @ARZ was a seesaw battle. ARZ was looking to avoid a season sweep and SEA was just getting started. SEA took a 24-14 lead in the 4th qtr and ARZ was looking at catchup mode. SEA came back with a score after ARZ made the score SEA 24-21 and the final was SEA 31-21. The SEA DEF kept ARZ QB Kyler Murray in check with 5sacks and 1fumble recovery. SEA QB Geno Smith was 26/34, 275yds, 2tds, 1INT but no fumbles. He also ran for 38yds on 6 carries. He managed the game well for SEA and was clutch when they needed it. SEA RB Kenneth Walker continues to impress with 109 yds rushing on 26 carries and 2TDS. L9 SEA vs TB, SEA 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS. TB 4-10 ATS since 2007 before their bye. TB 33-28-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 27-25-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 6-3 ATS as a HOME FAV 3<pts vs opp off SU win. SEA 11-4 ATS since 2007 before their bye. SEA 7-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. SEA 29-27 ATS AWAY I NOV. SEA 26-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 1-10 ATS off BB SU wins (last by DD) vs opp off SU win. SEA 15-3-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-2 ATS as a conf DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-4 ATS off div RG vs non-div opp. SEA 6-10 ATS L16 vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 2-10 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG off DD ATS win. 14-3 ATS as a conf DOG >1pt off SUATS win. TB is in serious trouble. Right now everyone knows that this is Brady’s last hurrah and TB doesn’t have a good QB waiting in the wings. There will be a total rebuild after the season. For SEA, Geno Smith is showing a resurgence and definite leadership skills that he didn’t either show or wasn’t given a chance to show earlier in his career. Also, the SEA DEF is getting better each week. TB has no running game and they showed it LW vs LAR rushing for 51yds.while Brady threw 58x. TB #32 RUSH OFF. On the other hand, SEA has a nice running game with Rookie RB Kenneth Walker who has impressed everyone and has earned the starting job. SEA #10 RUSH OFF. This in turn takes a lot of pressure off of Smith who doesn’t feel like he has to win the game all by himself. SEA knows that Brady is not mobile and TB has no running game. They should just put as much pressure up front as possible and create a couple of turnovers. I like SEA to win by a TD as they go into their bye week with the lead in the NFC WEST.
THE PICK: SEA+2 ½
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Sunday November 13th, 2022 1:00pm
Detroit Lions (2-6), (4-4) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-6), (3-5-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS DET+2 ½
CHI gets no respect after almost going toe to toe @HOME with MIA? CHI was in the ball game because instead of MIA kicking fgs, they went for it on 4th down and didn’t connect. MIA was 0-2 on 4th down which gave CHI a chance to score some points early, tie up the game late or even go ahead. MIA had no answer for CHI QB Justin Fields who ran the ball for 178 yds, including a 61yd td run. CHI rushed for a combined 252 yds but lost 35-32. Fields also threw 17/28, 123yds with 3tds, 0turnovers. The CHI DEF held MIA to 77yds rushing and really put it all on MIA’s QB Tua Tagovailoa’s arm. However, CHI played catchup in this game ever since the score was MIA 14-10. It didn’t help CHI, that MIA blocked a punt for a td that made the score MIA 21-10. The CHI DEF needs to play better. LW, DET had their game of the year, they intercepted GB Aaron Rodgers 3x and frustrated him all afternoon. Rodgers threw 2INTS that were so deep in the redzone, they would have been tds that gave the game to GB. The DEF for DET held GB RBS 66yds. L15 CHI(H) vs DET, CHI 9-7 SU & 8-6-1 ATS. L26 DET vs CHI, HOME 15-9-2 ATS. L20 DET vs CHI, FAV 9-9-2 ATS. DET 7-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DET 20-38 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 29-51 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET 28-27 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. DET 3-13-1 ATS after div HOME GM. DET 7-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .333<opp. DET 9-5 ATS AWAAY vs .333<opp. DET 13-7 ATS vs 333<opp. CHI 7-10-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CHI 28-18-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI 32-27-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 25-25 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 5-12 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. CHI 9-3 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. CHI 7-3 ATS as a FAV <6pts vs 333<opp off ATS win. CHI 7-1 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts vs 333<opp off ATS win. CHI is starting to put together something for the long term. Whether or not a running QB like Justin Fields can be a running QB for the long term that is questionable because they haven’t lasted. DEFs quickly adjust and prepare for them taking off and running. DET needs to build on their DEF. I am not taking anything away from the game vs GB but, DET had only won one game in the last six vs GB. Right now GB is not right. DET needs to play better DEF, period. Firing coaches doesn’t make them better if the same players are making the same mistakes. CHI needs to keep winning @HOME because the rest of their schedule is very tough @HOME. CHI #1 RUSH OFF vs DET #31 RUSH DEF. CHI needs to run all day vs DET. They need to use RBs Montgomery, Herbert & whoever else to keep the DET DEF off balance and thinking run while Fields can dump off some easy passes or go long. Lay the points here as DET typically doesn’t play well outside their DOME.
THE PICK: CHI-2 ½
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Sunday November 13th, 2022 4:00pm
Dallas Cowboys (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS, @ GB Packers (3-6), (3-6) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS GB+4 ½
GB keeps losing and QB Aaron Rodgers keeps talking. Who would have thought that he would throw 3INTS last week @DET? Two of them were deep in the red zone. Honestly, he looked like a Division 2 rookie out there. He made a monkey out of me because I thought they would crush DET and easily cover the -3 ½ . Rodgers hasn’t thrown 3INTS in a game since DEC 12th, 2017 in a loss @CAR, 31-24. DET has one of the worst DEFs in the NFL but they looked great vs Rodgers. The running game GB found vs BUFF, forget that. The RBs ran for a combined 66yds. Aside from them, Rodgers rushed for 40yds out of desperation, if anything. GB is in trouble. DAL is coming off a bye and before that they put a whooping @HOME on CHI. I liked CHI+10 ½ just to keep it close but CHI had a fumble that was returned for a td by DAL and that was the momentum swing of the game. DAL showed they can score points and RB Tony Pollard is picking up the slack for an underachieving RB Ezekial Elliott. If Pollard keeps it up, Elliott will be gone after the season. The DEF for DAL is also making plays as they keep pace with PHILLY. DAL #2 in the NFL with +0.8 turnover differential, GB is #29 with -0.6. That is a very big difference which turns into wins and losses. L10 GB vs DAL, GB 7-3 SUATS. GB 8-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. GB 23-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 31-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 15-8 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs 666>opp. GB 29-11-1 ATS after div gm. DAL 17-9-1 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 11-4 ATS since 2007 off their bye. DAL 47-33 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 28-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 15-6 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DAL 8-0 ATS w/rest & revenge. DAL 6-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts /revenge. GB has a lot of problems that can’t be solved in a week. The mass exodus of the receiver corps in the off-season weighs heavily on this team and it shows. WR Samori Toure injured his ankle in this game after he made that unbelievable catch @BUFF the week before. We’ll see if he is available. But things just get worse for GB. GB #14 TOT OFF vs DAL #10 TOT DEF w/ #4 PASS DEF & #24 RUSH DEF. DAL did give up over 200yds rushing vs CHI before their bye so they are a little vulnerable there. DAL cannot let GB get comfortable rushing the ball and then Rodgers picking the DAL DEF apart with the play action pass. DAL needs long sustaining drives that keep Rodgers & CO off the field. DAL cannot turn the ball over but the DAL DEF must create turnovers. The last time GB was a HOME DOG was in 2017. That season GB went 7-9 SU & 7-9 ATS. They were HOME DOG 5x. They went 1-4 ATS as a HOME DOG. Losses were to NO, DET, BALT & MINN. They beat TB barely, in OT. You may see GB as a HOME DOG more this season going forward. By the way, this is DAL HC Mike McCarthy 1st game back @GB since he was fired. Do you think he wants to beat GB bad? Rodgers owned DAL with McCarthy’s backing. Not this week. Rodgers will be sacked 3x, minimum. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DAL-4 ½
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Sunday November 13th, 2022 8:20pm
LA Chargers (5-3), (3-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ SF 49ers (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS LAC+7
SF is coming off a bye. Before their bye, SF was @LAR and it was the CMC show. It was highlight film for RB Christian McCaffrey. He did everything except sell peanuts in the stands. LAR didn’t have a chance. He has uplifted the OFF and the DEF got a lift as well. The score may have been LAR 14-10 at the half but it was over. In the 2nd half, SF scored 3TDS while the SF DEF forced LAR to punt 4x. The final score was SF 31-14. SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo also had a good game going 21/25, 235yds 2tds, 0turnovers. LW, LAC barely beat ATL @ATL. This was a seesaw game that no one wanted to win. ATL was up 10-0. Then LAC was up 14-10 at the half. Then ATL is up 17-14. Then we have mistakes by both teams and a final LAC 17-14. LAC scored 2tds vs ATL. Do you think SF will give up that much? The run game for LAC is unpredictable and can’t be relied on consistently. LAC QB Justin Herbert had a nice game going 30/43, 245yds 1TD, 1INT but did he really need to put up the ball 43x @ATL? L4 LAC vs SF, LAC 4-0, 3-1 ATS. LAC 9-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAC 10-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 35-25-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 36-29-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 5-15-2 ATS before KC. LAC 26-8-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG >4pts since 2004. LAC 10-2-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs NFC. LAC 2-13 ATS vs opp w/rest. SF 9-12 ATS as a FAV on SNF. SF 8-11 ATS @HOME on SNF. SF 4-10-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. SF 4-12 ATS L16 before ARZ. SF 6-15 ATS w/rest. Jimmy Garoppolo is a direct beneficiary of SF acquiring CMC because it takes a lot of pressure off him to do what he needs to do to get this team deep in the playoffs. He should be more relaxed and be able to see the field clearer thereby, making less mistakes. LAC #28 RUSH OFF vs SF #1 RUSH DEF. Since LAC hasn’t developed a reliable run gm LAC HC Brandon Staley develops a game plan that will ultimately fail. He relies on QB Justin Herbert too much to get this team to the endzone. Knowing this information, DEFs will adjust their game plan accordingly. Staley is another one of those young guys that is not a good coach and will ultimately be fired because somehow LAC will not get to the promised land even though they have a very good QB. His game plan is flawed. Look who they have beaten. LV by 5, @HOU by 10, @CLEV by 2, DEN by 3 and @ATL by 3. Look who they lost to. @KC by 3, JAGS by 28, SEA by 14. SF has a game plan that is now balanced and the DEF is pumped. The OFF is just getting started. SF should win here in a blowout unless they get a little cocky and turn the ball over. LAC should be playing catchup here but to no avail. They can’t get too excited. Lay the points.
THE PICK: SF-7
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Monday November 14th, 2022 8:15pm
Washington Commanders (4-5), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-0), (5-3) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (4-0) ATS WASH+11
LW, WASH had the game won @HOME vs MINN. WASH was up 17-7 in the 4th qtr but, they let it slip through their hands. On their two possessions after their lead, QB Taylor Heinicke threw an INT that set up a MINN td and WASH then punted which set up a fg for MINN. The WASH DEF stopped MINN from getting anything on the ground but their PASS DEF gave up yardage when they needed to make a stop. Heinicke threw an INT at the worst possible time. WASH has only themselves to blame. LW, on TNF, PHILLY was a BIG FAV, -14 @HOU. HOU played like they had a chip on their shoulders. HOU played toe to toe in the 1st half vs PHILLY and it showed. The score was 14-14 @halftime. PHILLY may have been thinking about other games on the schedule and felt that HOU was just in the way. PHILLY did just enough to win, 29-17. But it wasn’t a convincing win because the DEF for PHILLY let HOU take the opening possession and march down the field for a td. PHILLY countered but in the end HOU beat themselves. L15, PHILLY(H) vs WASH, WASH 7-8 SU & 10-5 ATS. L27 WASH vs PHILLY, FAV 16-11 ATS. L31 PHILLY vs WASH, ROAD 20-11 ATS. PHILLY 12-2 ATS on MNF off SU win. PHILLY 18-6 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. PHILLY 32-25 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. PHILLY 33-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 43-33 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 11-4 ATS w/rest vs 600<opp. PHILLY 8-1 ATS as a FAV>5pts w/rest. WASH 8-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. WASH 4-11 ATS L15 on MNF. WASH 12-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. WASH 13-5 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1st of BB RGs. WASH 21-29 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 30-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 43-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 10-3 ATS AWAY vs 666>div opp. WASH 15-2 ATS as a conf DOG 8>pts. WASH 3-15 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 3-14 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. Everyone is figuring that PHILLY is just going to roll over WASH. I don’t think so. WASH should play their game and can’t make mistakes. On paper, MINN was better than WASH but, WASH should have finished the job. In this game on paper, PHILLY is better too but, WASH is coming off a game they should have won and let’s see how they bounceback after such a game. PHILLY #2 @POINTS PER GAME w/28.1. WASH #26 @POINTS PER GAME @17.7. This is probably where the spread comes in. WASH #12 RUN DEF is what forced MINN to go to the air. If they are able to stop PHILLY from running all over the place, they may be able to do what they did vs MINN and maybe even close out the game. PHILLY eased up a bit on TNF @HOU. When you do that, you give the other team hope. Division games are tighter than other games and I like the points here. In wk 3, PHILLY embarrassed WASH @WASH 24-8. There is some revenge in the water as Wentz was the QB then and Heinicke is the QB now.
THE PICK: WASH+11
BEST BET of the FIVE: DAL-4 ½ @GB
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