Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds, Line, and Picks - October 18 | 2022 MLB Playoffs
The New York Yankees will head home for a winner-take-all Game 5 against the Cleveland Guardians in the MLB playoffs on Tuesday (October 18).
The two division winners traded blows in four games, with Tuesday's game representing the finale of an electric American League Division Series. The fifth game was initially slated to take place on Monday, but inclement weather postponed the contest after a lengthy two-hour and 48-minute delay.
The Yankees, behind the arm of ace SP Gerrit Cole, survived Game 4 in Cleveland, beating the Guardians 4-2. Cole showed his value in the third year of a nine-year 324 million dollar contract, twirling seven strong innings of two-run ball to go with eight punchies.
However, the Yanks ace was spotted with a run before the right-hander even toed the slab. 1B Anthony Rizzo slapped a single into center field to drive in teammate Gleyber Torres. New York tacked on another pair of runs in the second when CF Harrison Bader turned on a center-cut fastball from Cal Quantrill, hitting a no-doubter ten rows deep into left field.
Bader is the third center fielder in Yankee history to hit three home runs in a postseason. He joins an exclusive list with five-time All-Star Bernie Williams and Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle. The Guardians responded with a run in the bottom half of the third and fourth, but Cole finished strong, retiring eight of the last nine before giving way to the bullpen.
New York manager Aaron Boone opted to use All-Star RP Clay Holmes in the eighth against the top of the Guardians lineup. The right-hander pitched a clean frame before RP Wandy Peralta shut the door in the ninth.
Monday's postponement has offered both teams an opportunity to shuffle things around, with the Yankees now giving the ball to SP Nestor Cortes. Cleveland is yet to come out with a confirmed starter, but the Guardians will stick with SP Aaron Civale over SP Shane Bieber on short rest.
Civale will make his first appearance since October 5, a six-inning quality outing in a win against Kansas City. Unfortunately, 2022 marked the worst season of the former 12-game winner's career, setting career-worst numbers in ERA (4.92), ERA+ (78 with 100 being average), and losses (6). Civale suffered more than most regarding the 99-day lockout, representing the Cleveland Guardians in CBA negotiations.
The lack of spring training and time spent neck-deep in a crash course on labor relations affected his early season performance and time spent on the IL. Civale has spent his entire four-year career in Cleveland, making the playoff roster in 2020 and 2022 but never throwing a pitch till now.
The 27-year-old may have a short leash considering his career numbers against the Bronx Bombers. He's 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA against the Yankees, with a 4.80 ERA in New York. The Yanks have slugged .887 against Civale in his career.
Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes, with an extra 20 hours of rest due to the postponement, will have his number called in the finale of the ALDS. The first-year All-Star broke out in 2022, posting a sparkling 2.44 ERA and a microscopic 0.922 WHIP. The pride of Cuba was a decent swingman in the year prior but surprisingly dominated the junior circuit as a full-time starter.
Cortes will get his second crack against the Guardians this postseason, tossing six quality innings in the Yankees' 4-2 extra-inning loss in Game 2. Tuesday will mark Cortes' second career playoff appearance and first in the Bronx. The right-hander is masterful at Yankee Stadium with a career 2.95 ERA in 164.1 innings.
His home numbers will pair well with his career numbers against the Guardians, a 2.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in 18 innings.
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Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Betting Odds
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Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Betting Prediction
All the pressure in the world is on the New York Yankees. The AL East club dished out $264 million in payroll en route to a 99-win season. Anything less than a World Series birth will mark a disappointing end to the season, regardless of the regular season accolades.
Meanwhile, the Guardians are playing with house money, taking the Yankees to the brink of elimination after starting the season as a long shot to win the AL Central. The Yankees benefitted greatly from Monday's postponement, with the recent availability of Nestor Cortes.
No shade to the original starter Jameson Taillon, but he doesn't have a cool nickname like "Nasty Nestor." With Guardians manager Terry Francona sticking with Aaron Civale, expect Shane Bieber to get some run or multiple relievers to make an effort to stop the sluggers from New York.
Nevertheless, the Yankees should come out hot and provide Cortes with plenty of run support after a well-rested night.
Prediction: Yankees TT O3.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
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