Duke vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 6 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season
The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1) and #15 Duke Blue Devils (8-2) will clash at Madison Square Garden in New York on Tuesday night.
After falling to TCU in the Emerald Coast Classic Title game in Florida, the Hawkeyes bounced back nicely with a 81-65 home win over Georgia Tech last Tuesday. Kris Murray, the younger brother of former Iowa Hawkeye All-American and NBA lottery pick Keegan Murray, dropped a career-high 31 points and 20 rebounds in the win. He shot 11-of-18 from the field and hit 50% from deep.
Connor McCaffery, the son of head coach Fran McCaffery, had a double-double off the bench. Tony Perkins and Filip Rebraca, two starters from last year's team, also scored in double-figures.
Duke vs. Iowa Betting Odds
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Duke has won two straight games, knocking off the Boston College Eagles 75-59 last Saturday. Freshman phenomes Mark Mitchell and Kyle Filipowski led the way with 15 and 13 points on the night.
Illinois transfer and sixth-year senior Jacob Grandison also scored in double-figures. Eight separate Blue Devils scored six or more points as they combined to shoot 52% from the field and 38% from downtown.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions
Duke
Offensive Key Stats
AdjOFF SQ = 1.16 (3rd)
Shot Selection = 91st Percentile (30th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.11 (55th)
Spacing = 69th Percentile (96th)
Open 3 Rate = 18.3% (250th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
P&R Ball Screen = 1.09 (7th)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.20 (54th)
Transition = 1.43 (63rd)
Isolation = 0.96 (86th)
Off-Screen = 1.00 (160th)
Cut = 1.13 (173rd)
Defensive key stats
AdjDEF SQ = 0.97 (88th)
Free Throw Rate = 21.6 (25th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 84.1% (60th)
Open 3 Rate = 16.4 (101st)
Shot Making = 88th (327th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Cut = 0.93 (5th)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.10 (145th)
Off-Screen = 0.98 (158th)
Half Court = 0.98 (181st)
Isolation = 0.93 (218th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.99 (229th)
Midrange = 0.79 (247th)
Iowa
Offensive Key Stats
AdjOFF SQ = 1.19 (2nd)
Shot Selection = 97th Percentile (10th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.11 (43rd)
FTR = 38.0% (54th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 91.1% (67th)
Shot Making = 37th Percentile (217th)
Open 3 Rate = 21.2% (217th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Midrange = 0.84 (46th)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.19 (71st)
Cut = 1.19 (99th)
Transition = 1.35 (141st)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.03 (147th)
Post-Up = 0.88 (151st)
Off-Screen = 1.00 (163rd)
Defensive key stats
AdjDEF SQ = 0.96 (78th)
FTR = 15.9 (3rd)
Shot Selection = 13th Percentile (51st)
Open 3 Rate = 14.2% (77th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.03 (78th)
Spacing = 22nd Percentile (87th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 88.3% (235th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Cut = 0.98 (24th)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.05 (53rd)
Half Court = 0.96 (108th)
Isolation = 0.89 (125th)
Off-Screen = 0.97 (129th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.98 (200th)
Midrange = 0.81 (288th)
Post-Up = 0.93 (315th)
Duke vs. Iowa Prediction
Duke and Iowa house two of the best offensive teams in the country. Don't just take my word for it. Look at the ShotQuality numbers or visit the KenPom homepage. Iowa runs a high-tempo offense that is both effective and efficient. Duke spreads the ball around and is near the country's top in shot selection.
With both teams being better on offense than defense and Iowa playing faster, expect this matchup to go over the total.
Prediction: Over 146.5 (-110)
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