Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction, Odds, Line, and Picks - October 14 | 2022 MLB Playoffs
The New York Yankees will head home for a winner-take-all Game 5 against the Cleveland Guardians. The two division winners have traded blows for four straight matchups, with Monday's game representing the finale of an electric American League Division Series. The Yankees, behind the arm of ace SP Gerrit Cole, survived Game 4 in Cleveland, beating the Guardians 4-2.
In the third year of a nine-year 324 million dollar contract, Cole showed his value, twirling seven strong innings of two-run ball to go with eight punchies. However, the Yanks ace was spotted a run before the right-hander even toed the slab as 1B Anthony Rizzo slapped a single into center field to drive in teammate Gleyber Torres. New York tacked on another pair of runs in the second when CF Harrison Bader turned on a center-cut fastball from Cal Quantrill, hitting a no-doubter ten rows deep into left field. Bader is the third center fielder in Yankee history to hit three home runs in a single postseason. He joins an exclusive list with five-time All-Star Bernie Williams and Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle. The Guardians answered back with a run in the bottom half of the third and fourth, but the aforementioned Cole finished strong, retiring eight of the last nine before giving way to the bullpen. New York manager Aaron Boone opted to use All-Star RP Clay Holmes in the eighth against the top of the Guardians lineup. The righty pitched a clean frame before RP Wandy Peralta shut the door in the ninth.
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Neither organization has come out with a confirmed starter, but it looks like the Guardians will hand the ball to SP Aaron Civale when the Yankees turn to Jameson Taillon. Civale will make his first appearance since October 5, a six-inning quality outing in a win against Kansas City. Unfortunately, 2022 marked the worst season of the former 12-game winner's career, setting career-worst numbers in ERA (4.92), ERA+ (78 with 100 being average), and losses (6). In addition, Civale suffered more than most regarding the 99-day lockout, representing the Cleveland Guardians in CBA negotiations. The lack of Spring Training and spending time neck-deep in a crash course on labor relations most definitely affected his early season performance and time spent on the IL. Civale has spent his entire four-year career in Clevland, making the playoff roster in 2020 and 2022 but never throwing a pitch until now. The 27-year-old may have a short leash considering his career numbers against the Bronx Bombers. He is 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA against the Yankees, with a 4.80 ERA in New York. The Yanks are slugging .887 against Civale in his career.
Meanwhile, Yankees SP Jameson Taillon will be out for redemption on Monday night. The righty made his first career postseason appearance last Friday, giving up three base knocks without recording an out while being saddled with a loss in the Yankees' 4-2 extra-inning defeat. Taillon had a successful 2022 campaign, hurling 177.1 innings and posting a respectful 3.91 ERA. Outside the Game 3 debacle, Taillon pitches well against the Guardians, authorizing a 3.94 ERA with nine strikeouts per nine. The former second-overall pick is comfortable pitching at Yankee Stadium, with a career 12-4 record and 3.38 ERA in 31 starts in the Bronx.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Betting Prediction
All the pressure in the world is on the New York Yankees. The AL East club dished out 264 million dollars in payroll en route to a 99-win season. Anything less than a World Series birth will mark a disappointing end to the season, regardless of the regular season accolades. Meanwhile, the Guardians are playing with house money, taking the Yankees to the brink of elimination when they even started the season as a long shot to win the AL Central. However, they will be without their ace Shane Bieber in the year's most important game. I think manager Terry Francona would rather have Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, or Zach Plesac tonight, but the back-to-back leaves the cupboard bare. As solid as Jameson Taillon has been for the Yankees, his first taste of postseason play may have left him shaken. Expect runs to come in bunches tonight.
Prediction: Over 7 (-116 at Barstool)
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