Duke vs. Jacksonville Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 7 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season
The college basketball season will kick off on Monday. The year starts with a massive slate of games, including the Duke Blue Devils hosting the Jacksonville Dolphins. The Blue Devils went 32-7 last year, losing in the Final Four to conference mega rival North Carolina 81-77. Duke, the No. 2 seed in the West Region, ousted No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 4 Arkansas before falling to the No. 8 Tar Heels. The Blue Devils must navigate top-end roster turnover (the team's five leading scorers went pro) without coach Mike Krzyzewski. Coach K turned in his retirement papers after 42 seasons as the bench boss in Durham. He definitely didn't steal the spotlight from his players with last season's farewell tour, and that's definitely not sarcasm. Former Duke All-American and assistant Jon Scheyer succeeds Krzyzewski and will integrate five of ESPN's top 100 prospects into this year's lineup. The Blue Devils signed No. 1 Derek Lively (C), No. 2 Dariq Whitehead (SF), No. 10 Kyle Filipowski (C), No. 26 Mark Mitchell (PF), and No. 50 Jaden Schutt (SG) to be paired with lone returning starter Jeremy Roach.
Jacksonville went 21-10 last season while competing out of the A-Sun. The Dolphins returned four of last year's top five scorers, including double-digit point-getters Kevion Nolan (13.9 PPG) and Bryce Workman (9.8 PPG, but we're rounding up).
Dolphins vs. Blue Devils Betting Odds
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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Using 2021-2022 ShotQuality data, the Duke Blue Devils dwarf the Dolphins in nearly every metric. For example, last year's rendition of the Blue Devils posted an adjusted Offensive Shot Quality (AdjOFF SQ) of 1.14, while the Jags had an adjusted Defensive Shot Quality (AdjDEF SQ) of 1.04. AdjOFF SQ is calculated through offensive SQ points divided by possession, adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS). Since SQ points are derived from shot percentage multiplied by the quantity of the shot taken, Duke's 1.14 AdjOFF SQ should hold steady against a below-average Jacksonville defense.
Another telling ShotQuality statistic is Rim and 3 Rate ("rate at which each team gets a shot at the rim or a three-point attempt"). Duke ranked 73rd on defense in Rim and 3 Rate last season, while Jacksonville was 269th offensively. Duke's 2021-22 Finishing at the Rim Frequency was 97. They were 4-1 against the spread (ATS) against teams ranked 71-140 in defending this type of play. Jacksonville ranked 85 in 2022.
Dolphins vs. Blue Devils Prediction
ShotQuality suggests that the Duke Blue Devils should make quick work of Jacksonville. But, of course, it also helps that they tend to whoop cupcake non-conference teams every season. Duke beat Army, Campbell, Gardner-Webb, Lafayette, The Citadel, South Carolina State, Elon, and App State, all non-conference opponents at home, by an average of 29.1 points last season. They weren't exactly the most daunting opponents, but neither should the Jacksonville Dolphins. Per Jeff Goodman, the Dolphins will be without returning guard Bryce Workman.
Prediction: Blue Devils -15.5 (-110)
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