Louisville vs. Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 14 | 2022-23 NCAAB Season
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-1) will visit the Louisville Cardinals (0-9) on Wednesday night.
Western Kentucky have won five straight games since suffering their lone loss to Akron in late November. They edged out a feisty Wright State team at home 64-60 last time out.
Leading scorer and 2021-22 CUSA All-American Dayvion McKnight dropped a ridiculous 32 points on 13-of-17 from the field. His contributions didn't end there, adding four rebounds, three assists, and four steals over 35 minutes. Former Boise State star and 2017 top prospect Emmanuel Akot added 12 points of his own, though Luke Frampton and Jairus Hamilton, two key contributors from last season's team, struggled in the win.
Louisville vs. Western Kentucky Betting Odds
All Lines Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
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Louisville has been comically bad this season, losing all nine games while never covering the spread. In an interview early last week, coach Kenny Payne hinted that the low for the team may be yet to come.
There is no sugarcoating it. They are bad on offense. Leading scorer El Ellis averages 15.6 points per game but shoots 36% from the field. Brandon Huntley-Hartfield may have wished he had stayed at Tennessee, as the forward scored two points on 1-of-5 shooting in their 75-53 loss to Florida State last Saturday. Overall, they are 360th in the country at 56.9 points per game.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions
Western Kentucky
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 0.99 (207th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.15 (9th)
Open 3 Rate = 46% (18th)
Shot Selection = 77th Percentile (71st)
Shot Making = 74th (79th)
Spacing = 36th Percentile (222nd)
Rim and 3 Rate = 81.5% (323rd)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 1.10 (7th)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.09 (14th)
Half Court = 1.04 (27th)
Cut = 1.22 (72nd)
Post-Up = 0.90 (124th)
Midrange = 0.73 (292nd)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 1.06 (268th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 82.5% (21st)
Free Throw Rate (FTR) = 21.4% (23rd)
Shot Making 63rd Percentile (231st)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.09 (280th)
Open 3 Rate = 52.6% (356th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Isolation = 0.93 (213th)
Half Court = 1.00 (233rd)
Midrange = 0.79 (234th)
Cut = 1.18 (277th)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 1.03 (301st)
Post-Up = 0.98 (352nd)*
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
Louisville
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 0.92 (328th)
Open 3 Rate = 19.4% (243rd)
Shot Selection = 30th Percentile (245th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.03 (264th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 82.6% (297th)
Shot Making = 13th Percentile (313th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.04 (119th)
Off-Screen = 0.97 (234th)
Isolation = 0.88 (237th)
Post-Up = 0.83 (269th)
Half Court = 0.94 (290th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.91 (303rd)
Midrange = 0.72 (316th)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 0.97 (95th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.07 (203rd)
Spacing = 57th Percentile (226th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Off-Screen = 0.96 (90th)
Transition = 1.28 (137th)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.02 (167th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.97 (186th)
Half Court = 0.98 (192nd)*
Cut = 1.13 (200th)
Post-Up = 0.90 (260th)
Isolation = 0.96 (295th)
Midrange = 0.84 (345th)
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
Louisville vs. Western Kentucky Prediction
It's mindblowing how bad the Louisville Cardinals are. They are pacing for their first single-digit win season since the dawn of WWII, which is also the last time they have lost seasons in back-to-back seasons. However, ShotQuality suggests some positive regression for the Louisville offense. A matchup with a defensively challenged WKU squad should do the trick.
However, Louisville won't be able to stop them either, so points should come quicker than usual in a Louisville game this season.
Prediction: Over 133.5 (-110)
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