NFL Betting Picks Week 13 - To Be Or Not To Be - 2022 NFL Season
Every week in the NFL we see betting odds that definitely generate some conversations. The one betting odd that I want to talk about this week, is the HOME DOG. Everyone from gamblers, to speculators, to analysts sometimes have a problem interpreting this listing. However, this occurs in the spread when the HOME TEAM playing is inferior, bad, worse, terrible, etc vs the visiting team they are playing that week.
Not all teams get listed as a HOME DOG and some teams play very well when they are listed as such. Some teams get that tag more often than not and some teams don’t get listed at all as a HOME DOG.
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So far in the 2022 season this has been the year of the DOG. At the time of this writing, the DOGS are +23 ahead of the FAVS. Over the last ten years, 2017 was the closest to this phenomenon when the DOGS finished the season +23. We are only into 12 weeks and the DOG are already ahead by that margin.
But in 2022, the HOME DOGS are 42-30-1 ATS. This has probably contributed to the DOGS winning more games than the FAVS this season. The breakdown is this, wk 1 HOME DOGS were 6-4 ATS, wk 2 2-2 ATS, wk 3 5-4 ATS, wk 4 1-3-1 ATS, wk 5 3-2 ATS, wk 6 4-3 ATS, wk 7 2-1 ATS, wk 8 2-5 ATS, wk 9 7-1 ATS, wk 10 3-0 ATS, wk 11 2-4 ATS & wk 12 5-1 ATS.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been listed as a HOME DOG 1x in 2022 and that was vs the Buffalo Bills in wk 6. They were listed as +3 but they lost 24-20 to Buffalo and also did not cover. Including 2022, since 2013, KC is 3-5 ATS as a HOME DOG. It may sound like a lot of games but there were some seasons during that span that they were not a HOME DOG in any of their HOME games. But it may coincide with fact that the KC Chiefs do not play well ATS @HOME. However, they do play better on the ROAD. Remember that when considering a wager.
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Same thing goes for the New England Patriots under QB Tom Brady in regards to being listed as a HOME DOG. This is a team that was rarely listed as a HOME DOG. In fact, Tom was known to take it personally that his team would even be considered as such. From 2012 to 2019, the New England Patriots had been listed as a HOME DOG 4x. In those four games, the PATS went 4-0 ATS. That is money in the bank. Since Tom’s departure (2020-2022), NE has been a HOME DOG 7x, going 4-3 ATS. A tough call when deciding who to gamble on.
The Green Bay Packers are another team that was rarely listed as a HOME DOG. From 2012 -2022, the Packers were listed as a HOME DOG 7x. For those seven games, their record is 2-5 ATS. But there is some reasons for that. In 2017, GB QB Aaron Rodgers was injured in wk 6 @MINN. He would be out for the next 8 weeks (7 games). During that time, GB was a HOME DOG 4x going 1-3 ATS. Rodgers would come back and GB was a HOME DOG+9 in wk 16 vs MINN but would lose 16-0. So w/Rodgers as the QB, GB is 1-2 ATS as a HOME DOG over that period.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a team that went in the opposite direction in this category. From 2012-2019, TB was a HOME DOG 31x. During that span they were 12-16-3 ATS for 38.7 % winning percentage as a HOME DOG. But for 2020-2022, the seasons that Tom Brady has been the QB, TB has been a HOME DOG 4x. In 2020, TB was 2-0 ATS as a HOME DOG but in 2022, TB has been 0-2 ATS as a HOME DOG. Could be that Brady is not as effective as he was in his earlier years. No doubt that when Brady retires, Tampa Bay will go back to being a likely HOME DOG vs teams that are superior.
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The Seattle Seahawks are another team that rarely is listed as a HOME DOG. Considering that it is very tough to play because of the weather, noisy fans, etc., the Seahawks were rarely a HOME DOG. From 2012-2021, SEA was a HOME DOG 12x. During that time they went 9-3 ATS, a 75% winner. Very good if you ask me. So far in 2022, they have been a HOME DOG 2x and are 2-0 ATS. In total, SEA is 11-3 ATS as a HOME DOG from 2012-2022. This is something that is important when looking at the games every week. With the addition of Geno Smith as their starting QB this season and if he stays on as the QB past the 2022 season, you may want to consider SE when they are listed as the HOME DOG.
Mind you we could look at every team in the NFL that has been listed as a HOME DOG from 2012-Present but that would be enough material to fill a text book. You would need to go into almost every detail as to why and how they were a HOME DOG and how they played each time. There is so much that goes into deciding on the point spread that people have written numerous books on the topic. Everyone has an opinion in this area and no one is wrong. But we are not going to do that here. We are now going to look at a few teams that have been a HOME DOG many times and what their record is when listed as a HOME DOG.
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One team that comes into mind is the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have been bad for so long that when they are actually listed as a FAV, you have to wonder why and do a little research before putting your hard earned money down. They had one breakout season, 2017 where they were 10-6 SU and made it all the way to the AFC Championship game. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a HOME DOG 63x during 2012-2022. The JAGS record is 26-37 ATS or 41.2 % during those games. There have been some seasons where the JAGS were HOME DOGS for every HOME game that they played. Their record during those years are 2-5 ATS in 2012, 2-6 ATS in 2013, 2-5 ATS in 2014, 2-2 ATS in 2015, 3-4 ATS in 2016, 1-1 ATS in 2017, 3-1 ATS in 2018, 2-3 ATS in 2019, 3-4 ATS in 2020, 3-5 ATS in 2021 & 3-0 ATS so far in 2022. The JAGS have two more games @HOME in 2022 and they are vs DAL & TENN where they are already projected as HOME DOGS. But, looking back at the records, the JAGS who have been very bad throughout most of the last decade, had only one season above .500 as a HOME DOG ATS. They have gone through a lot of coaches and a lot of QBS and players during this time which has made the JAGS a bad bet @HOME. Would you as a gambler take a chance on them? Even though they are 3-0 ATS in 2022, there are no guarantees that they win or cover their last two HOME games. They are versus two teams that are looking for positioning in the upcoming playoffs. We shall see.
Another team I want to look at is the Cleveland Browns. This team is always in the news whether it’s about its players, its long history, new coaches, QBs, etc. There’s always a story somewhere with Browns. Needless to say they haven’t always been a winning team. The Cleveland Browns have been a HOME DOG 47x from 2012-2022. During that time, they were 20-26-1 ATS. They are at a 42.55% of winning as a HOME DOG. Again, not a great bet. Probably not a great bet because during 2012-2022, the Browns had only one winning season, 2020. That season they were 11-5. In 2020, CLEVE was a HOME DOG 2x and went 1-1 ATS. The only way to look at their seasons is look for the up trends and the down trends. Even then you may be fooled. This season, even though CLEV is currently 4-7, as a HOME DOG they are 3-0 ATS, go figure.
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One other team I want to look at is the Washington Commanders. Through 2012-2022, they have been a HOME DOG 46x. During this span, they are 21-25 ATS. That is 45.65% of winning as a HOME DOG. Of course, the Washington Commanders always seemed to be in the news more for their off the field activities than for their on field activities. During 2012-2022, they had three full wining seasons. In 2016 when they went 8-7-1, 2015 when they went 9-7 & 2012 when they went 10-6. WASH is currently 7-5 and if they can hold it together, they will have their 4th winning season during that span. In 2016 they were 1-1 ATS as a HOME DOG. When you are winning, it is less likely that you will be a HOME DOG. In 2015, WASH was 5-1 ATS as a HOME DOG. This is the only season that during the span, they were above .500 as a HOME DOG. In 2012, WASH was 1-1 ATS as a HOME DOG. Coincidentally, WASH has had games where they were a HOME DOG in all the seasons of 2012-2022. But the trend here for WASH is that when they won more on the field, there were less likely to be a HOME DOG. The spread setters found them to be genuinely playing better football and saw them as a FAV. Only in 2012 and coming off a 5-11 season in 2011, did the spread setters find it hard to believe that WASH was playing better football and set them as a HOME DOG in six of their eight home games. The factor here was if WASH had truly turned the corner in being an improved football team. This factor probably wasn’t considered for the 2017 JAGS.
There are a lot of factors that go into a team being considered as a HOME DOG. But I have shown you some teams that have been good bets and some teams that have been bad bets. We could have looked at some more teams but with each team you have to look at certain factors that may not add up with each team equally. One factor may work for one team and is completely non-consequential for another team.
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Certain trends may weigh fairer for a team than another and again their comparison in that category may be flawed. Each team is characteristically different because of the players, coaches, stadiums and even the fans. However, if you do your due diligence, you may be able to find the value in a particular bet over another. Good luck and enjoy the games!
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at jcadillac01@gmail.com.